Ranking 2025 AFC contenders by tiers: Here's who could challenge Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Chiefs in AFC

Only a week remains from Thursday and the start of the 2025 NFL season. 

That means it's time to dig and actually assess sensible standards for teams across the league entering the 2025 season. Sure, there are surprises annually across the NFL and the AFC: The Denver Broncos snapped the longest playoff drought all-time (eight seasons) after a Super Bowl victory (2016), in 2024, after drafting quarterback Bo Nix 12th overall. 

So which teams can actually challenge the three-time defending AFC champion Kansas City Chiefs, who are the first team ever to reach five Super Bowls in a six-season span, to represent the conference in Super Bowl LX? Who should already be keeping tabs on next year's draft class, and which teams could go either way in the middle of the pack? Here's a closer look at all 16 AFC teams and where they should be sorted across five tiers of contention. 

Tier 1: In a league of their own (1)

Kansas City Chiefs

As mentioned above, the Kansas City Chiefs remain a step above the rest of the AFC until proven otherwise in January. Kansas City has seven consecutive seasons with a playoff win, which is the second-longest streak of all time behind only the Tom Brady-Bill Belichick New England Patriots from 2011 to 2018. Kansas City's nine consecutive division titles are the second-longest such streak in NFL history behind only the 11 the Brady-Belichick Patriots won from 2009 to 2019. 

No matter how unstable the Chiefs may look at times, their 17 consecutive wins in one-score games (including the playoffs) is the longest streak of all-time, they seem to always find a way. That's why they remain at a level of their own entering the 2025 season. 

How to bet on the Chiefs: Super Bowl odds, win total, props, best bets, picks for Kansas City in 2025

R.J. White

Tier 2: Real-deal contenders (2)

Buffalo Bills, Baltimore Ravens

The Buffalo Bills have been the Charlie Brown to the Chiefs' Lucy in the 2020's. Buffalo has been eliminated by Kansas City in four of their five playoff trips this decade. That's how the Bills have become the only team with a playoff win in five consecutive seasons without a Super Bowl appearance. They're right on the cusp of a breakthrough with 2024 NFL MVP quarterback Josh Allen almost every year. 

The Baltimore Ravens are in a similar boat with the most regular season wins in a seven-season span (78) without a Super Bowl trip all-time, per CBS Sports Research. Their starting backfield dynamic duo of 2024 first team All-Pro quarterback Lamar Jackson and 2024 second team All-Pro running back Derrick Henry powered the 2024 Ravens to becoming the first team in NFL history with over 40 passing touchdowns and 20 rushing touchdowns in a single season. Both the Bills and Ravens are breathing down the Chiefs' neck. 

Tier 3: Fringe contenders (4)

Cincinnati Bengals, Los Angeles Chargers, Houston Texans, Pittsburgh Steelers

The Cincinnati Bengals, Los Angeles Chargers, Houston Texans and Pittsburgh Steelers all have elements of their respective squads that could elevate them to true contention, but their vulnerabilities are what's keeping them in the fringe contention tier.

Cincinnati has the most statistically prolific QB-WR duo in football with Joe Burrow, who led the NFL in both passing yards (4,918) and passing touchdowns (43) in 2024, and Ja'Marr Chase, who became the fifth player since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger to win the receiving triple crown by leading the league in catches (127), receiving yards (1,708) and 17 receiving touchdowns. However, the Bengals have one of the worst secondaries in football. 

Los Angeles had the NFL's No. 1 scoring defense (17.7 points per game allowed) in 2024, and they still have rocket-armed quarterback Justin Herbert. Their problem is they might not have enough weapons outside of second-year wide receiver Ladd McConkey to scare opposing defenses. Houston has arguably the best pass rush duo in football with Pro Bowlers Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. plus an ascending, young quarterback in C.J. Stroud. However, Stroud's offensive line was the root of a number of issues a year ago, and the changes they've made up front this offseason were lateral at best. 

Pittsburgh possesses some offensive talent with four-time NFL MVP quarterback Aaron Rodgers throwing to Pro Bowl wide receiver DK Metcalf, but Rodgers and offensive coordinator Arthur Smith's playbook might not be a scheme fit. Post-Achilles tear, Rodgers would prefer to play out of the shotgun and to put less pressure on his movement abilities at his age. The 2024 New York Jets lined up in shotgun on 74.3% of their offensive snaps, the 11th-highest rate in the NFL. Smith's Steelers lined up under center on 42.6% of their snaps, the fourth-highest rate in the NFL. That could make for some bumps along the road that could hold Pittsburgh back a little in 2025. 

Tier 4: Wild-card wilderness (5)

Denver Broncos, Jacksonville Jaguars, New England Patriots, Las Vegas Raiders, Miami Dolphins

The Denver Broncos had a top-five scoring defense (18.3 points per game allowed, third-best in the NFL) in 2024, led by reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year cornerback Pat Surtain II. Quarterback Bo Nix exceeded all expectations as a rookie, but he got thumped in Denver's 31-7 AFC wild card round loss at the Buffalo Bills. That game could put a blueprint out on how to slow him down to the point that he has a sophomore slump in 2025.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have plenty of talent, but the question is will quarterback Trevor Lawrence be healthy? He missed a career-high 10 games in 2024 while dealing with an AC joint sprain in his shoulder and a concussion. Despite only missing one game in 2023, he battled through injuries throughout that season that impacted his play as well. If Lawrence is healthy, Jacksonville could make a run at the AFC South title and move out of this tier.

Nobody has ever spent more money in free agency than the 2025 New England Patriots's $361 million this offseason. They dramatically beefed up their defense, but quarterback Drake Maye is still low on playmakers in the passing game. A 31-year-old Stefon Diggs coming off of an ACL tear is his top option. If there was more depth in the wide receiver room, New England could be truly scary. 

Adults are now in Las Vegas with Super Bowl champion Pete Carroll as the Raiders new head coach, and Geno Smith as the team's new quarterback. The addition of those two plus Heisman Trophy runner-up Ashton Jeanty and second-round pick wide receiver Jack Bech gives Vegas a much more potent offense around All-Pro tight end Brock Bowers. 

The Miami Dolphins still have the outline of a perennial playoff team, but they may also be approaching blow it up time as well. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle comprise one of the best wide receiver duos in the league, running back De'Von Achane is one of the most explosive running backs in the NFL  and the defensive line is pretty strong. Question marks surround Tua Tagovailoa's health and Miami's secondary. Plus, the vibes in general seem off. 

Tier 5: How many days until the 2026 NFL Draft? (4)

Indianapolis Colts, Tennessee Titans, New York Jets, Cleveland Browns 

With the Indianapolis Colts committing to start Daniel Jones at quarterback in 2025, they're dooming themselves to selecting inside the top 10 or top 5 of the 2026 NFL Draft. The same goes for the New York Jets with Justin Fields. Tennessee Titans first overall pick quarterback Cameron Ward could have a solid year connecting with Calvin Ridley, but there isn't enough juice in the receiving core outside of Ridley. Plus, the defense has some question marks in the secondary.

In 2024, the Cleveland Browns' offense ranked 29th out 32 teams in rushing (94.6 rushing yards per game), and 2025 second-round pick running back Quinshon Judkins remains unsigned after a July arrest for domestic violence. Quarterback Joe Flacco helped drag the Browns into the postseason in 2023, but he couldn't produce the same magic trick with the Indianapolis Colts last season despite a superior offensive supporting cast. 

All-Pro edge rusher Myles Garrett is the first player all time with 14 or more sacks in four consecutive seasons, but he and Pro Bowl cornerback Denzel Ward can't win alone. It's going to be another tough year for the Browns who will likely stack on to their NFL-high number of 40 different starting quarterbacks since the franchise returned to NFL action in 1999.