Pete Prisco's Week 11 NFL picks: Seahawks upset Rams in NFC West showdown; Chiefs get a must-win vs. Broncos
Pete Prisco reveals all of his Week 11 picks, including the Eagles beating the Lions
My picks are in a funk. After a bad Week 10, it was a so-so Week 11.
When can I have another good week? My last good one seems like a long time ago.
I went 7-7 against the spread last week and 8-6 straight up. I will say I had some tough ATS losses, but that's not an excuse. I need to be better.
My season records are now 100-49-1 straight up and 75-74 ATS. I'm still above .500, but sure would like some breathing room.
I will get it this week. I can sense it. This is going to be my best week yet.
I promise.
I hope anyway.
Bet NFL Week 11 games and NFL odds at DraftKings, where new users who win a $5 wager get $300 in bonus bets and three free months of NBA League Pass:
New York Jets at New England Patriots (-12.5)
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video
The Patriots have won seven straight, while the Jets have won two straight. The Patriots have played well on offense with Drake Maye, and much of the media focus has been there, but the defense needs to be getting more attention for how well that unit has played. That matters against an anemic Jets offense. Pats will keep rolling.
Pick: Patriots 30, Jets 10 | Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Washington Commanders at Miami Dolphins (-2.5) (in Spain)
Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET on NFLN (Stream: Fubo -- try for free)
The Commanders will once again start Marcus Mariota at quarterback for the injured Jayden Daniels. But the big problem is the defense. They don't cover, tackle or rush the passer. The Miami offense played well against the Bills last week and I look for that to carry over here. Look for De'Von Achane to again have a big day.
Pick: Dolphins 31, Commanders 21 | Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET on Fox (Stream: Fubo -- try for free)
These two have had weird, inconsistent seasons, but this is basically a game to help keep their playoff chances alive. The Panthers have trouble throwing the football, which will be a challenge here. The Panthers need more from Bryce Young, but I don't think they get it. Falcons win it.
Pick: Falcons 24, Panthers 17 | Odds via Caesars Sportsbook
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET on Fox (Stream: Fubo -- try for free)
The Vikings need to get their offense going with J.J. McCarthy in this one. The Bears are 6-3 and have played well on offense, but the defense has been leaky at times. I also think the Vikings' pass rush and blitzes will impact Caleb Williams into turnovers. Vikings take it.
Pick: Vikings 27, Bears 20 | Odds via BetMGM
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET on CBS (Stream on Paramount+)
The Bengals are off a bye, while the Steelers are coming off a road loss Sunday night to the Chargers. The Pittsburgh offense did little in that game, but the Bengals defense is the perfect tonic to fix that. The Bengals will score too, but just not enough. The Steelers will win a high-scoring game.
Pick: Steelers 36, Bengals 30 | Odds via Caesars Sportsbook, where new users get 20 100% profit boosts with the code CBS20X
Green Bay Packers (-7) at New York Giants
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET on Fox (Stream: Fubo -- try for free)
The Packers are coming off a Monday night loss to the Eagles, while the Giants will be playing their first game after coach Brian Daboll was fired. Mike Kafka takes over. The Green Bay offense has been lifeless the past two weeks, but that will change in this game. Jordan Love will sling it around as the Packers win it.
Pick: Packers 30, Giants 20 | Odds via BetMGM
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (+7)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET on Fox (Stream: Fubo -- try for free)
The Texans should have C.J. Stroud back for this one against a Titans team coming off a bye. The Titans have major offensive issues and the Texans defense is No. 1 in the league. That's trouble. But something says the Titans stay around in this game with the Texans offense mustering little on the other side. The Texans will win a close one.
Pick: Texans 23, Titans 19 | Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Los Angeles Chargers (-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET on CBS (Stream on Paramount+)
This is a long trip for the Chargers after a Sunday night game, but they are getting a Jaguars team coming off a demoralizing loss last week to the Texans. How will they respond? I look for Justin Herbert to have a good day against a team that doesn't rush the passer or excel in coverage. Chargers win it.
Pick: Chargers 27, Jaguars 20 | Odds via Caesars Sportsbook
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Buffalo Bills (-5.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET on CBS (Stream on Paramount+)
This a big game for both teams, but much bigger for the Bills. They looked awful in losing to Miami last week. The Bucs might be going into a game against a team that is desperate to get a win. Josh Allen didn't play well last week. He will in this one. Bills take it.
Pick: Bills 30, Buccaneers 23 | Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Seattle Seahawks (+3) at Los Angeles Rams
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET on Fox (Stream: Fubo -- try for free)
This is the game of the week. Both teams have a real shot to be the top seed in the NFC. Both teams can throw it deep and both teams can rush the passer. Matthew Stafford has been on fire, but this Seattle defense is special. They will get after him and that will be the difference in the game, with the short fields from turnovers leading to Seahawks points. Seattle wins in an upset.
Pick: Seahawks 24, Rams 23 | Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) at Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET on Fox (Stream: Fubo -- try for free)
These two suffered bad losses this past weekend, giving up over 40 points each. The Cardinals will start Jacoby Brissett again at quarterback, while it should be Mac Jones again for the 49ers. Look for Jones to get it to Christian McCaffrey a bunch, both as a runner and receiver, to find a way to win it.
Pick: 49ers 30, Cardinals 24 | Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (+8)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET on CBS (Stream on Paramount+)
The Ravens have come to life with Lamar Jackson back, but they are playing consecutive road games. It won't matter. The Browns have a good defense, but the offense is limited. The Ravens and Jackson will win it, but it's close thanks to the Cleveland defense.
Pick: Ravens 22, Browns 16 | Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) at Denver Broncos
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET on CBS (Stream on Paramount+)
The Chiefs are coming off a bye and Andy Reid's teams are great off the bye. The Broncos are rested having played last Thursday. Their offense is an issue right now with Bo Nix struggling. Look for the Chiefs defense to limit him and Patrick Mahomes will do enough to win it.
Pick: Chiefs 23, Broncos 17 | Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC (Stream: Fubo -- try for free)
The Lions are playing consecutive road games, while the Eagles are playing on a short week. That kind of cancels them out. The Eagles have had trouble scoring, while the Lions rolled up big numbers last week. But at home, look for the Eagles defense to slow down the Lions, while the Eagles get their offense going for the win.
Pick: Eagles 31, Lions 27 | Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN/ABC (Stream: Fubo -- try for free)
This is a bad Monday night game, but it features two national teams with a high profile. That matters to the networks. The Cowboys made some improvements to the defense at the trade deadline, which will help that unit make some strides in the right direction. The Dallas offense can score. The Raiders offense has issues, which will again show up. Look for the Cowboys to win it behind Dak Prescott.
Pick: Cowboys 31, Raiders 20 | Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
