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USATSI

Betting on the NFL in 2025 has been a slog. Coming out of Week 6, I look like I jumped into the ring with prime Mike Tyson after taking my fair share of licks. Last week's slate concluded with a 5-10 record against the spread and a 10-5 record straight-up. That brought me to an even 15-15 with my locks of the week, a 41-52 ATS record and a 57-35-1 record straight-up. 

We'll certainly take the moneyline wins, but we need to be better against the number, and I expect we will as the season goes along. That tide should hopefully turn this week, with several intriguing revenge narratives lurking in my five locks of the week. 

Teams with bye weeks in Week 7: Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens

2025 record

Locks of the Week ATS: 15-15-0
ATS: 41-52-0
ML: 57-35-1

NFL odds via DraftKings Sportsbook (unless otherwise noted). Bet NFL Week 7 games at DraftKings Sportsbook, where new users get $300 in bonus bets and 3 free months of NBA League Pass.

New England Patriots (-7) at Tennessee Titans

I don't love this spot for the Patriots, who are playing their third road game in as many weeks. They are also facing a Titans team playing their first game after firing head coach Brian Callahan, which is typically a situation where clubs respond well the following game. That said, is Mike Vrabel really going to lose his first game against a Tennessee franchise that fired him after the 2023 season? The Patriots head coach should be dialed in for this matchup, and I expect the players in the locker room will also be motivated to win this game for Vrabel. 

New England is also far superior -- it's playing like a top-10 team in the NFL at the moment -- with Drake Maye putting up top-five numbers at the quarterback position.  On the other side, Cam Ward has struggled as the No. 1 overall pick: he has a league-worst 55% completion rate and ranks bottom three in the league in yards per attempt (5.5) and touchdown-to-interception ratio (3-to-4). Going up against a New England defense that is 3-0 and allowing just 17.3 points per game since All-Pro corner Christian Gonzalez returned, it could be another long day at the office for Tennessee. 

Projected score: Patriots 30, Titans 17
The pick: Patriots -7

New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears (-4.5)

  • Sunday, 1 p.m. (Fox | Fubo, try for free)

I think Caleb Williams is going to be particularly motivated for this game against New Orleans and, more specifically, Spencer Rattler. This will be the first time these former Oklahoma quarterbacks will face one another since their position battle with the Sooners. Rattler started over Williams to begin the 2020 season, but Williams eventually got the nod during the sixth game of that campaign. Williams started the rest of that year, and Rattler eventually transferred to South Carolina. Williams admitted in 2024 that he was "so angry" starting the season as the backup to Rattler at the time, and I wonder if that feeling will linger in this game with a desire to continue to prove that he was the top quarterback in that room. 

On top of the motivation factor from Williams, I like the way Chicago is playing. It has won three straight coming into Week 7 and is averaging 2.4 takeaways per game (most in the NFL). That should match up well against Rattler's Saints, with the quarterback 0-5 on the road as the starter and his offense averaging just 11.8 points per game. Meanwhile, Williams is 7-3-1 ATS at home in his career. 

Projected score: Bears 27, Saints 20
The pick: Bears -4.5

Philadelphia Eagles at Minnesota Vikings (+1.5)

  • Sunday, 1 p.m. (Fox | Fubo, try for free)

It's hard for me to back the Eagles at this stage, particularly on the road. The offense continues to look lost and is averaging just 274.5 yards per game (third-fewest in the NFL). The club has been outgained in every game this season and has been outscored 52-17 in the last five quarters. This offense is expected to rebound against a Vikings defense that is fifth in the NFL in points per game allowed (19.4), sixth in yards per game allowed (289.8), and second in third-down efficiency (30%)? I don't see it. Meanwhile, the Vikings are 9-2 at home since the start of last season, which includes a 2-0 record as a home underdog. The club is 4-1 straight-up as an underdog since 2024. 

Projected score: Vikings 23, Eagles 20
The pick: Vikings +1.5

Carolina Panthers at New York Jets (+1.5)

  • Sunday, 1 p.m. (Fox | Fubo, try for free)

The Jets initially opened as the favorite in this matchup, but the odds have swung toward Carolina. While it's hard to fault anyone for fading the Jets after an abysmal performance in London last week, this is a sneaky good spot for them to notch their first win of 2025. 

The Panthers are a dramatically different team on the road than they are at home. This season, Carolina is 0-3 on the road and is averaging just 15 points per game on offense while allowing 31.7 points per game on defense. Bryce Young is just 1-15 on the road in his career as a starter. If this continues, Justin Fields won't be asked to do anything beyond his capabilities as a passer, and New York could control a low-scoring game. 

After all, the Jets did play well on defense and on special teams last week, to the point where they nearly pulled off the upset despite issues on offense. Those two areas could continue to shine, and if they get remotely competent play from Fields and Co., it'll result in the first win for head coach Aaron Glenn. 

Projected score: Jets 20, Panthers 17
The pick: Jets +1.5

Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-11.5)

Don't look now, but the Kansas City Chiefs have clawed back to .500, the offense is coming alive, and the team is set to welcome back standout receiver Rashee Rice from his six-game suspension. K.C. has gone 3-1 since beginning the year at 0-2 and takes on a Raiders team that hasn't impressed at all this season, despite bringing in veteran quarterback Geno Smith and respected head coach Pete Carroll. Smith has an NFL-high 10 interceptions and the offense is averaging just 17.2 points per game (29th in the league). 

That won't be good enough against a Chiefs offense that is starting to heat up and is getting a key weapon back in the fold. That's also not mentioning Patrick Mahomes' 12-2 record against the Raiders in his career. I expect Kansas City to cover the double-digit spread. 

Projected score: Chiefs 33, Raiders 21
The pick: Chiefs -11.5

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook. You can bet Chiefs vs. Raiders at Caesars Sportsbook, where new users get 20 100% profit boost tokens with the promo code CBS20X.

Rest of the bunch

Steelers at Bengals (Thursday)
Projected score: Steelers 24, Bengals 20
The pick: Bengals +5.5

Rams at Jaguars (in London)
Projected score: Rams 24, Jaguars 20
The pick: Rams -3

Dolphins at Browns
Projected score: Browns 23, Dolphins 20
The pick: Browns -2.5

Giants at Broncos
Projected score: Broncos 28, Giants 20
The pick: Broncos -7

Colts at Chargers
Projected score: Colts 27, Chargers 26
The pick: Colts +1.5

Commanders at Cowboys
Projected score: Commanders 33, Cowboys 24
The pick: Commanders -2.5

Packers at Cardinals
Projected score: Packers 24, Cardinals 20
The pick: Cardinals +6.5

Falcons at 49ers
Projected score: Falcons 24, 49ers 21
The pick: Falcons +3

Buccaneers at Lions (Monday)
Projected score: Lions 30, Buccaneers 27
The pick: Buccaneers +4.5

Texans at Seahawks (Monday)
Projected score: Seahawks 23, Texans 21
The pick: Texans +3.5