NFL Week 6 picks: Seahawks live road underdog; Mike Tomlin's history kind for Steelers vs. Dillon Gabriel

The sweat was real in Week 5. In all, there were six double-digit comebacks throughout the slate and, despite that madness, we were able to power through for the most part with an 8-6 ATS record. Yes, we were on the losing end of 49ers-Rams and Broncos-Eagles, but we were on the right side of Bucs-Seahawks. We were also dead on with the Jaguars keeping it close against Kansas City, and they even pulled off the outright win. 

Those picks, along with a few others, helped us get back to a more respectable record, particularly with my five locks of the week, which went 3-2 ATS in Week 5. While that's profitable, we can do much better than that. I'll look to cash even more tickets in Week 6, where I have two road underdogs pulling off the outright wins within my five locks. 

Teams on the bye in Week 5: Minnesota Vikings and Houston Texans

2025 record

Locks of the Week ATS: 13-12-0
ATS: 36-42-0
ML: 47-30-1

NFL odds via DraftKings (unless otherwise noted). Bet NFL Week 5 games and NFL odds at DraftKings, where new users get $200 in bonus bets with a winning $5 wager.

Seattle Seahawks at Jacksonville Jaguars

• Sunday, 1 p.m. (Fox | Fubo, try for free)

We rode with the Jaguars in Week 5, and now we're going to fade them a week later. While Jacksonville is one of the more surprising stories of the 2025 season thus far with a 4-1 record, I still have plenty of questions about them, particularly surrounding Trevor Lawrence. He's 24th among 33 qualified quarterbacks this season in EPA per dropback, and largely did his damage on Monday night with his legs. The passing left little to be desired outside of a couple of late throws to pull off the upset. The Jags are one of the top rushing offenses in the NFL, but that plays into a key strength of the Seahawks. Seattle is giving up 3.3 yards per carry this season, which is second-best in the NFL. If that continues and they plug up the running lanes for Jacksonville, Lawrence's passing deficiencies could be exposed. 

Also, let's not ignore the tremendous season that Sam Darnold is putting together for the Seahawks. Remarkably, his completion percentage and passer rating are even better than what he produced last season with the Vikings. I think he leads Seattle into Duval County and leaves with an outright win. 

Projected score: Seahawks 27, Jaguars 23
The pick: Seahawks +1.5

Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs

• Sunday, 8:20 p.m. (NBC | Fubo, try for free)

The Chiefs will probably figure it out by the time the regular season comes to an end, and will again look like a Super Bowl contender, but I don't see it right now. They are unable to hang with even fringe playoff contenders with their two victories on the year coming against the New York Giants and an injury-filled Baltimore Ravens squad. When the games are close, they've fallen flat, owning a 0-3 record in one-score games this season. With this spread sitting at Chiefs -2.5, I think we'll see more of the same. I have a hard time imagining this current version of the Chiefs offense keeping up with the Lions, who are averaging 34.8 points per game (most in the NFL). Dan Campbell's team comes into Arrowhead Stadium with a 10-1 record on the road dating back to the start of last season. This could be another stellar showing from Detroit's backfield duo of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs as they square off against a Chiefs run defense that is giving up 4.8 yards per carry (tied for fifth-highest in the NFL).

Projected score: Lions 30, Chiefs 23
The pick: Lions +2.5

Buffalo Bills at Atlanta Falcons

• Monday, 7:15 p.m. (ESPN | Fubo, try for free)

Buffalo got in its own way against the Patriots on Sunday night, turning the ball over three times and committing 11 penalties. I'm not sure that happens two weeks in a row. The Bills have also responded well following defeats as they are 4-1 both straight up and against the spread in their last five games after a loss. Buffalo still is averaging 30.6 points per game and 395.8 total yards per game this season, which rank third in the NFL. Despite the top-tier weapons at his disposal, I still have my doubts about Michael Penix Jr. and his ability to go toe to toe with Josh Allen. 

Projected score: Bills 33, Falcons 24
The pick: Bills -4.5

Prisco's Week 6 NFL picks: Desperate Chiefs win shootout vs. Lions, Chargers upset by Dolphins

Pete Prisco

Denver Broncos at New York Jets (in London)

• Sunday, 9:30 a.m. (NFL Network | Fubo, try for free)

I've been high on Denver dating to the offseason, so I'm delighted that they are finally starting to look like themselves. They'll look to carry the momentum from their comeback win over the Eagles in Week 5 across the pond to London, where they will take on the New York Jets. This should be a lopsided matchup with New York still winless in 2025. 

One of the more surprising elements of the Jets poor start to the season is that they have yet to record a single turnover, which is blasphemous for an Aaron Glenn-led team. If that continues, Bo Nix and the Broncos offense should have no problem getting into the end zone at least three times. If they do, that would almost automatically secure them the win. In his career, Justin Fields is 0-26 when his opponent scores 21 or more points. For reference, Denver is averaging 23.4 points per game.

Meanwhile, favorites of seven or more points are 8-2 ATS all time in international games, so that's another feather in our cap here.    

Projected score: Broncos 27, Jets 17
The pick: Broncos -7.5

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers

• Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS | Paramount+)

We talk a lot about how Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season as coach of the Pittsburgh Steelers. That's certainly impressive, but as we look at this upcoming matchup against the Cleveland Browns, we're highlighting another Tomlin-specific stat. The coach is 26-6 straight up in his career against rookie quarterbacks. That's the second-best record by a coach with at least 15 games since 1970. History tells us he should have no problem diluting Dillon Gabriel's effectiveness in this game, and Pittsburgh's 10 takeaways this season (second-most in the NFL) only emboldens us to lay the points in this spot. Don't look now, but T.J. Watt is also starting to heat up with three sacks in the last two games. That's even worse news for Gabriel. 

Projected score: Steelers 24, Browns 16
The pick: Steelers -5.5

Odds via BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 back in bonus bets if your first football wager loses.

Rest of the bunch

Eagles at Giants (Thursday)
Projected score: Eagles 24, Giants 17
The pick: Giants +7.5

Cardinals at Colts
Projected score: Colts 30, Cardinals 21
The pick: Colts -6.5

Chargers at Dolphins
Projected score: Chargers 27, Dolphins 20
The pick: Chargers -4.5

Patriots at Saints
Projected score: Patriots 24, Saints 23
The pick: Saints +3

Cowboys at Panthers
Projected score: Cowboys 33, Panthers 23
The pick: Cowboys -3.5

Rams at Ravens
Projected score: Rams 30, Ravens 20
The pick: Rams -7.5

Titans at Raiders
Projected score: Raiders 24, Titans 20
The pick: Titans +4.5

Bengals at Packers
Projected score: Packers 30, Bengals 20
The pick: Bengals +14.5

49ers at Buccaneers
Projected score: Buccaneers 23, 49ers 21
The pick: 49ers +3

Bears at Commanders (Monday)
Projected score: Commanders 28, Bears 23
The pick: Commanders -4.5