NFL Week 6 lookahead lines: Early best bets worth considering now before Week 5 kicks off
Use the information the market is giving you to get ahead of line movement for NFL Week 6 and lock in early value
When we take a peek at the lookahead lines each week and try to find value on early bets worth making, we're in part predicting what's going to happen on Sunday to change minds in the market and move a line. One of our highlighted picks last week was the Saints catching two points at home against the Giants, thinking that if Jaxson Dart flopped in his debut, the Saints would quickly move to favorites. Dart actually led the Giants to a win and opened as road favorites on Sunday, but the market still quickly adjusted the Saints to favored status.
What gives? Well, the Giants offense didn't exactly play well in the win while averaging 3.6 yards per play, and 11 of the team's 21 points came on two drives that totaled 2 yards. The Giants also lost star receiver Malik Nabers, the best player on offense by a wide margin. But perhaps the biggest development was the Saints holding their own on the road against the Bills for three quarters, cutting the lead to two points with about nine minutes to play before the Bills put the game away. If the Saints aren't truly the worst team in football, what justification was there for the Giants to be favored on the road against them?
That's something to keep in mind as we head into our Week 6 lookahead that features six games with road favorites. Let's take a look at the consensus Week 6 lookahead lines and then share our best bets to lock in early.
Week 6 lookahead lines
Eagles (-7) at Giants, 42.5
Broncos (-6.5) vs. Jets, 42.5 (London)
Cowboys (-3.5) at Panthers, 47.5
Cardinals at Colts (-3.5), 47.5
Browns at Steelers (-6), 38.5
Chargers (-5.5) at Dolphins, 45.5
Patriots (-3.5) at Saints, 44.5
Seahawks at Jaguars (-1.5), 44.5
Titans at Raiders (-6.5), 41.5
49ers at Buccaneers (-2), 47
Bengals at Packers (-13.5), 44
Lions at Chiefs (-1.5), 48.5
Bills (-5.5) at Falcons, 50.5
Bears at Commanders (-5), 50.5
Week 6 lookahead picks
Cowboys at Panthers
The Cowboys appear to be overvalued by the market following their 40-point explosion against the Packers. The offense could do nothing until deep in the first half, which makes the final score all the more impressive, but the defense again looked like a major issue. At home, where Bryce Young has played much better in his career than on the road, the Panthers should be capable of putting up points and having a shot at getting the backdoor cover if needed. If the Jets have another big offensive game against the Cowboys in Week 5 and if the Panthers win at home against a beat-up Dolphins team, this line should reopen no higher than 3.
Titans at Raiders
I am done trying to find spots where the Titans have value after a disaster game against a mediocre Texans team, but at some point JC Latham will return and the offense will start to look functional. If that happens this week against the Cardinals, this line should shrink in a hurry, as the Raiders are expected to get rolled by the Colts. With left tackle Kolton Miller on IL, the Raiders' offensive line could be in dire straits against the Colts, and if the offense doesn't look functional, then the books won't allow the Raiders to be big favorites against anyone, even the worst team in the league, as they don't have anywhere near the same level of defense as the Texans.
Browns at Steelers
The Steelers are off this week, so line movement in this game will largely come down to how Dillon Gabriel looks, and I'm not expecting much, making his debut in London against a quality Vikings defense. We should also expect a Steelers defense that seemed to be getting healthier in their last game before the bye to be even more at full strength next week. This is a line I'd expect to be at least Steelers -6.5 on Sunday night and potentially sit at -7 all week.
Other notes: Patriots-Saints is another game with only one team in action prior to the Sunday rerelease, and with the Saints moving to favored status against the Giants, the market is clearly expecting a good showing from New Orleans. Depending on how good it is, I could see the lookahead line of Patriots -3.5 dropping to 3, and if New England gets routed by Buffalo on Sunday night, dropping even further on Monday. ... The Bengals have been awful with Jake Browning as the starter, but he's also had two tough matchups on the road against the Vikings and Broncos. The Lions have been solid defensively as well, so maybe it'll be more of the same this week despite playing at home, but if the Cincinnati offense has a pulse, then I could see their game against the Packers next week reopening south of the current -13.5 line.
