mike-vrabel-patriots-imagn.jpg
Imagn Images

Week 2's action was particularly brutal in terms of injury, especially at the quarterback position. That makes it a bit difficult to analyze current spreads against the lookahead numbers. We got ahead of the Vikings' move by tipping them as worth playing at -1.5 last week, and with both backup quarterbacks in the game, the spread is up to -3.

The one major move we nailed was backing the Cowboys as 2.5-point underdogs in Chicago. Even though the line sat under the key number of 3, there was potential for the line to swing heavily toward Dallas if the Bears felt the wrath of a Lions team that was dominated in Week 1 by the Packers. One blowout loss later, and the Cowboys are now favored in Chicago.

We're going to try and get ahead of similar line moves for Week 4 in this space. Let's take a look at the consensus Week 4 lookahead lines and then share our best bets to lock in early.

Week 4 lookahead lines

Seahawks at Cardinals (-2.5), 43.5
Vikings vs. Steelers (-1.5), 41.5
Panthers at Patriots (-5.5), 45.5
Browns at Lions (-10), 47
Chargers (-5.5) at Giants, 45.5
Saints at Bills (-14.5), 47.5
Titans at Texans (-6.5), 41
Commanders (-1.5) at Falcons, 45.5
Eagles (-2.5) at Bucs, 45.5
Colts at Rams (-5), 46.5
Jaguars at 49ers (-3), 46.5
Ravens (-2.5) at Chiefs, 48.5
Bears at Raiders (-1.5), 46.5
Packers (-4.5) at Cowboys, 48.5
Jets at Dolphins (-2.5), 44.5
Bengals at Broncos (-6.5), 44.5

Week 4 lookahead picks

Jaguars at 49ers

There's potential for Brock Purdy to come back this week, which has lifted the spread in the 49ers' game against the Cardinals to -2.5. This line doesn't appear to have seen the same level of adjustment, and with Purdy presumably likely to play in this game if he has a chance to be back the prior week, I anticipate the 49ers will quickly be laying more than a field goal against Jacksonville next week.

Eagles at Buccaneers

This pick involves some risk, as the Eagles are on upset watch against the Rams in Week 3. But I don't want to miss out on getting this number at less than 3 if the Buccaneers' injury issues turn their game against the Jets into a closer contest than most people expect. I'd currently make the line for this game Eagles -4, so I'm happy playing the 2.5 and living with it if it reopens at a smaller spread.

Titans at Texans

I don't think Cam Ward has looked particularly poor in his first two games, which have both come against defenses expected to be among the best in the league. Tennessee had a third-quarter lead in both of those contests as well, with the defense playing well this season up until the last 20 minutes or so of the Rams game. The Texans offense has struggled to get on track, and at 0-2 they need a great game against the Jaguars for this line to make sense on the Sunday rerelease. 

Chargers at Giants

The market has installed the Chiefs as six-point favorites on the road against the Giants for Sunday night's primetime game. Haven't we established the Chargers are better than the Chiefs, maybe even by a significant margin due to Kansas City's lack of receiving talent right now? Either the Chiefs-Giants spread is too high, or this is too low (or a little of both). Unless the Chargers look awful this week, I can't see this rereleasing below 6.

Other notes: Vikings-Steelers is in Dublin next week, and depending on how Carson Wentz looks running the Vikings offense, I could see Minnesota moving from +1.5 to favorites on the Sunday rerelease. I still think the market is overvaluing the Steelers in general, particularly with the amount of defensive injuries they're forced to overcome, and I'd put the chances of Christian Darrisaw being back by the Dublin game as pretty high ... The Commanders are 1.5-point favorites in Atlanta with the presumption Jayden Daniels will be good to go by the game. Even if he is, the market has steamed the Falcons against the Panthers this week, and if they're right, I don't see why they should be worse than pick 'em in this matchup.