NFL Week 3 lookahead lines: Early best bets to get ahead of line movement based on Week 2's results

Last week, we talked about the value of projecting potential market ratings changes based on what we expect to happen on Sunday in order to get great picks in against lookahead lines. Our example from the article was Broncos-Colts and what would happen if Indy rolled against Miami, which would likely bring that line from Broncos -3.5 down below the key number of 3 if the Broncos didn't destroy the Titans. Not only did that happen upon reopen of the Week 2 lines, but the number currently sits at Broncos -1.5, leaving those who took the Colts at +3.5 with a valuable ticket heading into the weekend almost certain to return closing line value.

We didn't have the Broncos-Colts game in our top four lookahead bets worth considering prior to last Sunday, but we did nail three other key movements, taking the Jets at +8.5 (currently +6.5), the Jaguars at +5.5 (currently +3.5) and the Cardinals at -4.5 (currently at -6.5). Our final pick was Raiders +3, and that ended up not returning early value after the Chargers impressed against the Chiefs, though the Raiders did upset the Patriots as we thought had a better chance than the market suggested.

We're back to play the same game with the Week 3 lookahead lines, targeting certain games that we believe have the potential to return great line value by the time the bulk of Week 2 action is over on Sunday. Even though our best considerations should be around key numbers, picks like the Jaguars and Cardinals last week can end up being great value without going through one of the major key numbers.

Let's take a look at the consensus Week 3 lookahead lines and then share our best bets to lock in early.

Week 3 lookahead lines

Dolphins at Bills (-10), 48.5
Falcons (-2.5) at Panthers, 44.5
Bengals at Vikings (-1.5), 47
Packers (-7) at Browns, 43
Texans at Jaguars (-1), 43.5
Rams at Eagles (-4.5), 45.5
Colts (-2) at Titans, 43
Jets at Buccaneers (-5), 44.5
Steelers (-1.5) at Patriots, 43
Raiders at Commanders (-6), 47.5
Broncos at Chargers (-1.5), 43.5
Saints at Seahawks (-6.5), 41.5
Cowboys at Bears (-2.5), 46.5
Cardinals at 49ers (-2.5), 44.5
Chiefs (-6) at Giants, 42.5
Lions at Ravens (-6), 50.5

Week 3 lookahead picks

Steelers at Patriots

The Steelers' offense looked much better than expected in Week 2, but the defense is dealing with a number of injuries that could cause the team to look worse against the Seahawks than expected. On the other side, the Patriots are coming off an upset loss and are currently underdogs in Miami, the team that probably looked the worst in Week 1. If the Patriots look more like the team the market expected to see before the season as average or slightly better, there's no way they'll deserve to be home underdogs in this matchup, and you could even see this swing all the way near to even to Patriots -3 if the books have these teams around even in ratings coming out of Sunday.

Rams at Eagles

The Rams are big favorites in Tennessee, and it's hard to see them getting a ratings boost even with a convincing win as the market will just treat the Titans as inept offensively. But if the Eagles are anywhere near as effective against the Chiefs as they were in February, this line could get up near -6, which is where we see Lions-Ravens, as the teams in this matchup should have similar market ratings. I believe there's a good chance of a convincing Philly win this week after the Chiefs lost their second starting receiver while their defense did nothing to slow down the Chargers' offense.

Bengals at Vikings

The Vikings don't play until Sunday night, so the reopen will largely depend on the Bengals, who face a Jaguars team that impressed in Week 1. If the Bengals don't win convincingly, I expect this to reopen at Vikings -3. And even if the Bengals do win but the defense struggles against a competent offense, the books should see a matchup where the Vikings' defense has a better shot at slowing down the Bengals attack than vice versa and throw in Minnesota's strong home-field advantage to at least get the line to -2 or -2.5.

Cowboys at Bears

This is a tougher one to play with the 'dog just under the key number of 3, but let's look at what's expected to happen this Sunday. First, the Bears are around six-point underdogs against a Lions team not many expect to start 0-2, and if their offense struggles in that game like it did this past Monday, the market won't have a lot of confidence in them. The Cowboys are around 4.5-point favorites at home against the Giants after opening around -6, and if the Giants' offense struggles again, people will look at this matchup and wonder if the Cowboys should be giving any points at all in Chicago.

Other notes: You might be able to get ahead of a significant line move in the Cardinals-49ers game depending on whether you can accurately determine how Mac Jones looks running the 49ers' offense against the Saints on Sunday. If the results aren't great, we could see this matchup reopen around pick 'em, but if Jones plays well, it's possible this flips to the other side of 3. ... I'd say the Jaguars have a chance to reopen as bigger favorites against the Texans than -1 if they look good against the Bengals, but Houston's spread this week against the Bucs didn't react the way I expected considering how poorly the Texans played in Week 1, so who knows how the market is valuing that team right now. ... The Bills are -10 hosting the Dolphins next Thursday, and if Miami struggles again, the market may be wondering if the Dolphins should be valued similarly to the Browns, who are 11.5-point underdogs in Baltimore this week.