NFL Week 2 betting power ratings: React but don't overreact as Chiefs, Lions, 49ers among those moving down

After months and months of breaking down the strengths and weaknesses of all 32 teams and dissecting all 16 Week 1 matchups, we now have a week of real NFL data in the books to turn everything we thought we knew on its head. Are the Lions really that bad, or are the Packers really that good? Do the Steelers and Jets have elite offenses? Was the Patriots' flat performance a one-week aberration or did the market have it wrong projecting them as an average or better team?

Finding the right answers to those and similar questions is key to determining which line moves for Week 2 are overreactions and therefore present line value in fading. The Chiefs went from slight favorites in their rematch with the Eagles to home underdogs after Xavier Worthy's injury and a poor showing by the Kansas City defense. The Bills went from 8.5-point road favorites against the Jets to 6.5-point favorites after their defense struggled and the Jets put up 32 points. The Cowboys' line against the Giants doubled, with Dallas going from laying three points to laying six.

Thankfully, we can root our valuation of teams in power ratings to give us a sense of where each spread should be for Week 2's action. This year, I'm allowing myself to making more aggressive adjustments to my ratings early in the season rather than spend the first month trying to catch up to reality a half-point adjustment at a time. What does that mean in practice? Moving the Cowboys from below average to a zero (average) rating, the Chargers from a dead-average team to +2, or the Chiefs from the top tier down near that +2 range. That opens myself up more to being guilty of one-week overreactions, so we must be careful to not only make those big adjustments sparingly, but also to keep them in mind when deciding what the resulting power ratings spread means in terms of locking in bets.

Week 2 power ratings

I'm dropping the Eagles and Bills slightly coming out of Week 1 due to concerns about their defenses after what we saw in their respective openers. I don't have that same concern about the Ravens, who are good for one meltdown or two every season but certainly looked like the better team in Orchard Park. I'm being aggressive moving the Packers up following their domination of the Lions, but we'll have to keep an eye on the injury report after seven players picked up new injuries in that game, including two O-line starters. That makes me more hesitant to play them fully on Thursday, and we'll see what Wednesday's final injury report holds.

I mentioned the Chiefs get a major downgrade, and the reason I'm comfortable with it is because I still don't love them being a point ahead of the next tier with questions about their passing attack for the next few weeks. The defense is going to have to play a lot better than it did in Brazil to make up for the potential offensive downturn. Even though they didn't show it in the final score, I thought the Rams looked excellent against the Texans, who ended every single offensive drive outside of the red zone. With San Francisco's injuries and Arizona not looking quite as good as expected, the Rams look like the clear favorites in the NFC West.

My dead even group includes the aforementioned 49ers and Cardinals, though the latter will obviously have a significant rating drop if Brock Purdy is unable to play against the Saints. I can see San Francisco dropping below the key number of 3 if Mac Jones has to start. In addition to the Cowboys, I moved the Jaguars up to this group as well after they played better than I expected, even taking into account the quality of the team they played. I had the Bengals as a potential survivor option for Week 2 hosting the Jaguars heading into the season but I've scratched that possibility after how Jacksonville played.

I'm not quite ready to put the Steelers and Jets up at that same level after their offenses looked much better than expected, in part because their defenses looked much worse than expected. I could buy any rating from +1 to -4 for either team at this point. I'm also not overreacting to the Colts' dominant win, moving them up slightly, but I was certainly impressed by how the Raiders looked even though I had them in that game against the Patriots.

The Dolphins could be on their way to the basement but I don't want to get too aggressive dropping them just yet. I am more pessimistic about the Panthers after they were run all over, as it doesn't seem the offense is going to be built to win shootouts. 

Full Week 2 projected lines

This is how I would set each game based on my power ratings and home field advantage data for Week 2. A large discrepancy between the projected power rating lines and the market lines does not make the game an autoplay, but it gives us a basis for potential strong picks pending further analysis.