NFL Week 13 picks and score predictions: Cowboys stun Chiefs in Thanksgiving thriller, Packers upset Lions

It's Thanksgiving week, so grab some turkey, get a tub of cranberry sauce and let's get ready to make some picks. Actually, I don't even like turkey and cranberry sauce is the worst, so I take back everything I just said. When it comes to Thanksgiving, I only eat three things: Pumpkin pie, apple pie and grapes, but the grapes have preferably been fermented and turned into wine by the time they get to me. 

I'm not sure how many glasses of wine I'll be having on Thursday, but I do know how many football games I'll be watching: THREE. Normally, that number is closer to two, because I usually nap during at least one game, but there will be no napping this year because the schedule is too loaded. 

As we head into Thanksgiving, almost every fan base has something to be thankful for and that's the fact that 31 of the 32 NFL teams are still mathematically alive for the playoffs. Even the 1-10 Titans could still get in. On the other hand, if you're celebrating Thanksgiving with a Giants fan, please give them a hug, because their team is the only one that's been eliminated from playoff contention so far. 

I don't want to make Giants fans sadder than they already are, so let's just get to the picks. 

NFL Week 13 Power Rankings: Rams stay atop field of flawed contenders in most wide-open playoff race in years

Pete Prisco

Actually, before we get to the Week 13 picks, here's a quick reminder that you can check out the weekly picks from every CBSSports.com NFL expert by clicking here. Also, as you may or may not know, I'm in charge of the NFL newsletter here at CBSSports.com, which I'm only telling you about because it makes the perfect holiday gift and it also brings people together. For instance, if you can't be with your family for Thanksgiving, then just sign them up for the newsletter and then you can read it together and it will feel like you're in the same room as them, except not really. To subscribe, all you have to do is click here and enter an email address. 

Alright, let's get to the Turkey Day edition of the picks!

Bet NFL games at DraftKings Sportsbook, where new users get $300 in bonus bets and 3 free months of NBA League Pass with a winning $5 wager. Click here: 

NFL Week 13 picks

Green Bay (7-3-1) at Detroit (7-4)

Thursday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, , Fubo -- try for free)

I'm not going to tell you how to plan your Thanksgiving, but based on how the NFL schedule looks for Thursday, I'd go ahead and start eating dinner at 9:30 a.m. ET. Based on my math, that gives you two hours to eat, then you can take another 30 minutes for dessert, and then take a one hour nap so that you'll be ready to roll by the time this game kicks off at 1 p.m. ET. And if you need something to be thankful for, we can all thank Roger Goodell for moving the kickoff time of the first game from 12:30 p.m. ET to 1 p.m. ET this year. It's a small change, but that's 30 extra minutes of eating pumpkin pie. 

To me, this game feels like the unofficial NFC North title game. Yes, I know the Bears are actually in first place, but their schedule is a ticking time bomb. Over their final six games, they play five teams that currently have seven wins or more. Their only "easy" game is against the Browns, a team that might sack Caleb Williams 19 times. The Bears might make the playoffs as a wild card team, but I don't think they're going to win the division, which leaves us with the winner of this game. 

The Lions are favored to win, but I think that's only because the oddsmakers were taking shots of potato vodka before setting the point spread. Potato vodka is the perfect Thanksgiving drink, but it's not good for setting point spreads. My problem with the Lions is that they are playing a good defense and they have not shown me that they can consistently beat teams that have a good defense. 

There are nine teams in the NFL that have given up less than 21 points per game this year. The Lions have faced three of those teams and they've gone 0-3 in those games. Let's take a look at what happened in those three games: 

Week 1: Packers 27-13 over Lions
Week 6: Chiefs 30-17 over Lions
Week 11: Eagles 16-9 over Lions 

Not only are they 0-3, but they've been outscored 73-39 and they're averaging just 13 points per game. In all three of these games, the Lions were held under 100 yards rushing and when they can't run the ball, that puts all the pressure on Jared Goff. Goff is a good quarterback, but he seems to struggle at times when he's forced to carry the team. Goff got sacked a total of seven times in these three games, including four times in Detroit's season-opening loss to Green Bay. 

In that Week 1 game, Micah Parsons had practiced roughly three times and he didn't know the Packers' defense yet, but Green Bay still managed to shut down the Lions. The good news for the Lions is that even if they don't score a lot of points, they can still win because Green Bay's offense has forgotten how to move the ball through the air. The Packers' haven't looked the same since losing Tucker Kraft to a season-ending injury in Week 9. In three games without Kraft, Jordan Love is averaging just 163 passing yards per game. 

If this turns into a defensive battle, I think the Packers win. If this turns into a shootout, I think the Lions win. In their past nine Thanksgiving games, the Lions haven't topped 25 points a single time, so I'm going to go ahead and say a shootout doesn't happen. 

Turkey won't be the only thing swallowed on Thursday, Goff is going to get swallowed up by the Packers defense. 

PICK: Packers 20-17 over Lions | Packers +2.5 |  Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Kansas City (6-5) at Dallas (5-5-1)

Thursday, 4:30 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

Last year, we got Tommy DeVito vs. Cooper Rush in the Cowboys' game on Thanksgiving, and the NFL clearly felt bad about that, because this year, we're getting possibly the best Thanksgiving game of all-time with Dak Prescott and the Cowboys facing Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. 

I still have nightmares about the DeVito-Rush game, but I think this matchup will help me finally get over that. This game is giving us two teams that both saved their season on Sunday: The Chiefs came back from an 11-point deficit in the fourth quarter to beat the Colts in overtime and then Dallas one-upped them by pulling off an even wilder comeback. The Cowboys beat the Eagles 24-21 in a game where they were trailing 21-0 at one point. The Chiefs' win was the biggest fourth quarter comeback of Mahomes' career while the Cowboys' win was the largest comeback in any game in franchise history, and now, we're getting these two teams in a playoff game. 

OK, this isn't technically a playoff game, but it's going to feel like it, because neither team can afford to lose. Normally, if there's a team in a must-win situation and the Chiefs are involved, I'm automatically taking them, but I'm not sure if I can do that this week. For one, this game is in Dallas. The Chiefs have been horrible on the road this year, going 1-4 and their only win came against the Giants, so I'm not even sure it counts (Sorry, Giants fans. Didn't mean to drag you into this. Between this and the whole playoff elimination thing, you're just catching strays from me today). 

The Chiefs are 0-2 on the road this year in the month of November and a big reason they haven't won away from Kansas City is because Patrick Mahomes hasn't looked like Patrick Mahomes. 

In the two losses, Mahomes has completed just 55.7% of his passes with two interceptions and just one TD pass. For a good chunk of the season, Mahomes has been playing like he doesn't fully trust his receivers or maybe he doesn't trust his offensive line or maybe it's both. I can't quite tell which one, but it's definitely having an impact on what the Chiefs are able to do on offense. To make matters worse, the Chiefs won't have Pro Bowl right guard Trey Smith and this is the worst time to be missing your Pro Bowl right guard because the Cowboys defensive line has been extra dominant since adding Quinnen Williams on Nov. 4. 

Williams is a human wrecking ball. 

Williams is so dominant, he can get you 40% off of a Pro Football Focus subscription. 

Going into the trade deadline, the Cowboys had given up the fourth-most rushing yards per game this year (142.7) and the second most points per game (30.7). In the two games since adding Williams, the Cowboys are 2-0 and they've give up just 45 rushing yards and 18.5 points per game. I don't want to call Jerry Jones a genius, but the man is clearly playing 4-D chess while the rest of us are eating at the kids' table on Thanksgiving. Actually, I take that back, Jones hurt the team by trading Micah Parsons, which led to the Cowboys having the worst defense in the NFL through the first eight weeks and then he tried to save face by adding Williams. This is one of the rare instances where the person trying to save face might have actually saved his face. 

This could end up being the most watched regular season game in NFL history so I can't possibly pick against America's Team when most of America is going to be watching. 

PICK: Cowboys 31-24 over Chiefs | Cowboys +3 | Odds via BetMGM

Cincinnati (3-8) at Baltimore (6-5)

Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)

I'm not sure what you're thankful for this year, but I'm guessing everyone at NBC is thankful that Joe Burrow is returning for this game. On paper, there's almost no reason to watch a 3-8 team play a 6-5 team this late in the season, but with the return of Burrow, this automatically becomes must-see TV. And we know Burrow is playing because he announced it on Instagram by sharing a high school photo of himself in a LeBron James Cavaliers jersey. 

Does it seem a little crazy for the Bengals to bring Burrow back during what appears to be lost season? Yes, but it's not completely crazy, because the Bengals play in the division that no one wants to win. Here's what the AFC North currently looks like along with each team's remaining schedule: 

1. Ravens (6-5) -- Bengals, Steelers, at Bengals, Patriots, at Packers, at Steelers
2. Steelers (6-5) -- Bills, at Ravens, Dolphins, at Lions, at Browns, Ravens
3. Bengals (3-8) -- at Ravens, at Bills, Ravens, Dolphins, Cardinals, Browns
4. Browns (3-8) -- 49ers, Titans, at Bears, Bills, Steelers, at Bengals

The Bengals still have to play the Ravens twice and if they pull off a sweep against Baltimore, that essentially puts them right back in the division race. I'm not saying it's going to happen, I'm just saying that throwing Burrow out there this week is a Hail Mary play that could pay off. 

In Burrow's first game back, he'll get to face a Ravens defense that's surrendering 230.1 passing yards per game this year, which ranks in the bottom 10 in the NFL. Baltimore's defense has certainly looked better over the past three weeks, but it's hard to say if that's actual improvement or if that's just happened because their last three games have come against Tyrod Taylor (Jets), Dillon Gabriel (Browns) and J.J. McCarthy (Vikings). 

I have no idea what Burrow is going to look like after two months away, but even a rusty Burrow is an upgrade over those three quarterbacks. And let's not forget, Burrow will have Ja'Marr Chase, who was suspended for Cincinnati's game against New England on Sunday. 

Even with Chase and Burrow, you can't fully trust the Bengals because of their defense. They haven't been able to stop anyone this year, but this week, they get to face a Ravens' offense that has gotten real good at stopping itself. Over the past three weeks, Lamar Jackson hasn't looked like Lamar Jackson. Since Week 10, he hasn't topped 200 passing yards a single time, he has more interceptions (2) than touchdown passes (1) and his completion percentage has been below 60% (57.1%). He also seems hesitant to run: Jackson has averaged just 14.8 rushing yards per game since returning from his hamstring injury in Week 9. 

The Bengals are going to be desperate and I think they're going to get a spark from Burrow's return, but I'm not sure that spark is going to be quite big enough to pull off the upset here. 

PICK: Ravens 27-24 over Bengals | Bengals +7 |Odds via Caesars Sportsbook, where new users get 20 100% profit boosts with the code CBS20X:

Chicago (8-3) at Philadelphia (8-3)

Friday, 3 p.m. ET (Prime)

The Black Friday game is back! I have made it an annual tradition to watch this game on my phone from a mall parking lot so that I get the full Black Friday feel and I highly suggest that you guys all do the same. 

Anyway, we're headed into Week 13 and I still have no idea if the Bears are any good. Yes, they're 8-3, but only one of those eight wins has come against a team that's currently above .500 and that lone win came on Sunday against a Steelers team that didn't have Aaron Rodgers. Also, the Bears have been collectively outscored by their opponents this year, which makes them just the third team in NFL history to win eight of their first 11 games despite having a negative point differential. 

I'm not saying the Bears are frauds, but I'm not saying they're not. The Bears have played four games this year against teams that are over .500 and they've gone 1-3 in those games, which could pose a problem down the stretch, because five of their final six games are against teams who are all at least THREE games over .500. Oh, and if you make the playoffs, you'll probably be facing a team that's over .500. 

This game is going to tell us a lot about both teams. The Bears have been pretty good this year, but if there's one thing they've struggled with, it's stopping the run. They've given up an average of 138.1 rushing yards per game, which is the fifth-most in the NFL. The Eagles are 5-0 this season when they top 100 yards and this should be the perfect game for them to once again hit that number. If the Eagles can't get Saquon Barkley going against this defense, they might just want to give up on running the ball for the rest of the season.

The Eagles actually looked like they gave up on running the ball (and passing the ball) against the Cowboys. Philly blew a 21-0 lead in Week 12 and that mostly happened because the offense didn't score a single point over the final 40 minutes of the game. They went seven straight possessions without scoring and if that Eagles team shows up, then the Bears are going to win, but I don't think that Eagles team is going to show up. 

PICK: Eagles 27-17 over Bears | Eagles -7 |  Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Houston (6-5) at Indianapolis (8-3)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

If I've learned one thing this month, it's that the Colts' entire season is a house of cards and it could collapse at any time. When the month of November started, the Colts were 7-1 and they looked like a lock to win the AFC South, but over the past three weeks, Daniel Jones has turned into the Daniel Jones that most people thought he would be when he won the starting job. You know how the first three Indiana Jones movies are all good, but then the last two were just OK? That's Daniel Jones right now. He got off to a hot start, but now, he's just OK. He's thrown four interceptions over the past three weeks, and in a loss to the Chiefs, he threw for just 181 yards. 

With the game on the line in the fourth quarter against Kansas City, Jones went just 2 of 8 for 13 yards. That's not ideal. 

The Colts have lost two of their past three while the Texans have won three games in a row, which has put Houston right back in the race for the AFC South title. Let's take a look at the top three spots in the standings: 

1. Colts (8-3)
2. Jaguars (7-4)
3. Texans (6-5)

(The Titans also exist, but let's not worry about them). 

The Colts haven't imploded yet, but that will be dangerously close to happening if they lose this game. If the Colts want to win on Sunday, all they have to do is figure out how to move the ball against the best defense in NFL. The Texans have given up the fewest yards per game (264.3), the second-fewest points per game (16.5), the third-fewest passing yards per game (172.1) and the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game (92.2). They also have 33 sacks on the season and they were so good in Week 12 that they made Josh Allen look like a Division II college quarterback. 

This feels like a game where the Colts will try to get Jonathan Taylor going, but the Texans will be ready for that, which means if Indy is going to win, Daniel Jones is going to have to come up big. Three weeks ago, I trusted him. I was drinking the Daniel Jones Kool-Aid, but it tasted a little funny, so I spit it out, which is almost fitting, because I feel like the Texans are going to chew him up and spit him out on Sunday. 

PICK: Texans 19-16 over Colts | Texans +4.5 | Odds via BetMGM

NFL Week 13 picks: All the rest

49ers 20-16  over Browns
Jaguars 24-17 over Titans
Dolphins 30-16 over Saints
Falcons 23-16 over Jets
Cardinals 20-17 over Buccaneers
Rams 30-20 over Panthers
Seahawks 31-13 over Vikings
Bills 30-20 over Steelers
Chargers 27-20 over Raiders
Broncos 23-16 over Commanders
Patriots 26-23 over Giants

Last Week

Best pick: Last week, I predicted that Shedeur Sanders would lead the Browns to a win over the Raiders in his first career start and guess what happened? Shedeur Sanders led the Browns to a win over the Raiders in his first career starts. Now, did I know that Geno Smith was going to get sacked 10 times? Of course, I did. If you've watched the Raiders offense play at all this season, it was pretty clear that was going to happen. Every time the Raiders have run a play this season, something bad seems to happen. On every play, it looks like everyone is confused about what they're supposed to do, which might explain why Chip Kelly got fired. 

The good news for the Raiders is that by firing Kelly, they're now one step closer to a future Super Bowl appearance. 

The bad news for the Raiders is that they're now 2-9, which means for the 21st time over the past 23 years, they won't be finishing above .500. 

Worst pick: If you need something to be thankful for this week, just be thankful that you're not a Cardinals fan. The Cards have lost five games this year by four points or less, and for some reason, I thought maybe they could win a close game, so I picked them to beat the Jaguars last week, and that blew up in my face. The Cardinals had a chance to win the game in regulation, but apparently, no one explained to the offense how a spike is supposed to work. After a big play got Arizona down to Jacksonville's 11-yard line, the Cards could have spiked the ball to stop the clock, but instead, they did the opposite of what every other team in the NFL would do in this situation: They let the clock run. 

Trevor Lawrence turned the ball over four times, but the Cardinals lost because they don't understand clock management. This is usually where I would say "I'm never picking them to win another game," but I'm picking them again this week. I clearly hate myself. 

Finally, if you guys have ever wondered which teams I'm actually good at picking, I'm going to start sharing that information with you now that we've got 12 full weeks of information. Here's a quick look at my best teams when it comes to picks this year. 

Teams I'm 10-1 picking this year (Straight up): Titans, Raiders
Teams I'm 9-2 picking this year (Straight up): Seahawks, Rams, Saints, Broncos, Colts
Longest winning streak: Raiders (10 straight games picked correctly)

Teams I'm the worst at picking: Chiefs (4-7)
Longest losing streak: Jaguars (Three straight games picked incorrectly)

Picks Record

Straight up in Week 12: 10-4
SU overall: 114-63-1

Against the spread in Week 12: 12-2
ATS overall: 87-91

You can find John Breech on Facebook or Twitter, and if he's not doing one of those things, he's probably hiding an entire pumpkin pie in his fridge so he doesn't have to share it with his kids.