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Week 11 was the week I finally hit on my top picks, going 3-1-1 against the spread. The Miami Dolphins covered the spread for us in Madrid, the San Francisco 49ers blew out the Arizona Cardinals, the Dallas Cowboys made slight work of the Las Vegas Raiders and then Jameis Winston got us a tie by losing to the Green Bay Packers by exactly seven points.

We have several huge matchups this week in the NFL, as Daniel Jones and the Indianapolis Colts travel to Kansas City to battle Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers head west to play the Los Angeles Rams and Shedeur Sanders makes his first career start in a game that almost certainly will go Under the total. 

Here's a look at what I'm thinking this week. As always, credit to the CBS Sports research team for making me sound smart.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

  • Top five picks ATS record: 26-28-1
  • Overall ATS record: 88-75-1
  • Straight up record: 113-50-1

Seattle Seahawks (-13.5) at Tennessee Titans

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, Stream: Fubo, try for free)

The Titans played the Houston Texans close with Davis Mills under center. In fact, I would argue it was one of their most complete games of the entire season. However, Cam Ward lost his WR1 in Calvin Ridley for the remainder of the season, leaving him with Van Jefferson, rookies and practice squaders at wideout. 

Seattle is coming off a deflating, yet close loss to the Rams in which Sam Darnold threw four interceptions and zero touchdowns. Obviously 13.5 points is a massive number, but I think the Seahawks are going to unleash all of their anger over last week on the one-win Titans. Seattle loves playing on the road, going 10-1 in its last 11 games away from home, then Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Cooper Kupp and Rashid Shaheed are going to present a problem for this Titans secondary that is missing their top three cornerbacks from Week 1.

The pick: Seahawks -13.5
Projected score: Seahawks 27-10

Pittsburgh Steelers at Chicago Bears (-2.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Stream on Paramount+)

I think the narrative around the Bears has gotten a little out of control. Yes, they lead the NFL in takeaways (22) and have pulled off five wins when trailing in the final two minutes of the fourth quarter this season, but they needed a miracle score to beat the Cincinnati Bengals, came back against the New York Giants when Jaxson Dart went down, and then scraped by the Minnesota Vikings last Sunday. The Bears are a solid team, but not a Super Bowl contender.

With that being said, I'm selling the Steelers this week. Aaron Rodgers is now dealing with a fracture in his non-throwing wrist, and it's going to come down to pain tolerance, and if he can protect himself. It's tough to imagine the 41-year-old will voluntarily sit out this game against his former rival, so I think the offense will struggle. The Bears are 6-2 ATS in the past eight games since starting the season 0-2 ATS. Give me Chicago. 

The pick: Bears -2.5
Projected score: Bears 23-17

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-1.5)

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, Stream: Fubo, try for free)

The Falcons lost quarterback Michael Penix Jr. for the season due to a knee injury, so Atlanta turns to 37-year-old Kirk Cousins to lead them. Cousins in theory is supposed to be one of the best backup quarterbacks in the NFL, but he has not been that. In his one start this season, which was a 34-10 loss to the Dolphins, Cousins completed 21 of 31 passes for 173 yards and zero touchdowns, while the offense managed just 213 total yards. It's also tough to maintain faith in this Falcons defense, as they just allowed Bryce Young to throw for a franchise-record 448 yards on them in their own building. As for New Orleans, Tyler Shough just became the first Saints rookie quarterback to ever throw for 280 yards in a game, and added two touchdowns in an upset victory over the team that just defeated Atlanta on Sunday in the Carolina Panthers. 

The Falcons are 0-5 SU and ATS in their last five divisional games, so let's board the Shough hype train together.

The pick: Saints -1.5
Projected score: Saints 23-16

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Rams (-6.5)

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, Stream: Fubo, try for free)

Many will side with the Buccaneers as underdogs in virtually any matchup, and I can understand why. The Bucs are 17-9 ATS as underdogs since Baker Mayfield joined the team in 2023, but last week's loss vs. the Buffalo Bills concerned me. The defense got absolutely shredded, allowing 414 total yards, while Mayfield threw for just 173 yards. Believe it or not, the Buccaneers are 1-7 in prime time with Mayfield, so I'm taking the Rams in Week 12. 

Despite the win over the Seahawks last week, I think the Rams are out to set the record straight about their offense. Matthew Stafford's unit converted just two third downs, and were out-gained by Seattle, 414 yards to 249. That won't be the case on Sunday night, as I have the Rams overpowering the Buccaneers offensively, furthering their case as Super Bowl favorites. 

The pick: Rams -6.5
Projected score: Rams 27-20

Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers (-7)

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN, Stream: Fubo, try for free)

The 49ers dropped a season-high 41 points on the Cardinals in Brock Purdy's return to the lineup, and now, he returns to San Francisco to take on a beatable team in prime time. While Bryce Young threw a franchise-record 448 yards against what was the No. 1 pass defense in the NFL last week, keep in mind he seemingly morphs into Peyton Manning whenever he plays the Falcons. Also keep in mind that Carolina needed overtime to beat Atlanta despite Young's huge performance.

The real reason I'm taking the 49ers to cover seven points at home is because this is the "Christian McCaffrey game." It's the first time the star running back will face his former team after being traded in 2022, and he's in the midst of another incredible season, leading the NFL in touches (267) and scrimmage yards (1,439). You just know he's going to have a massive game. 

The pick: 49ers -7
Projected score: 49ers 30-16

Other Week 12 picks

Bills (-5.5) 24-14 over Texans
Patriots (-6.5) 27-17 over Bengals
Chiefs (-3.5) 26-20 over Colts
Ravens 23-20 over Jets (+13.5)
Lions (-10.5) 30-17 over Giants
Packers 24-20 over Vikings (+6.5)
Jaguars (-2.5) 26-20 over Cardinals
Raiders 17-14 over Browns (+3.5)
Eagles 24-21 over Cowboys (+3.5)