NFL Week 11 picks and score predictions: Chiefs edge Broncos in thriller, Rams top Seahawks in NFC West clash

Alright guys, I'm just going to admit it: We're more than halfway through the season and I officially have no idea what to make of the AFC. 

Heading into Week 11, the Colts, Patriots and Broncos are all tied atop the conference with an 8-2 record, but I don't trust any of them to make it to the Super Bowl. I also don't trust the Bills, who just got destroyed by the Dolphins. And let's be real, you can never trust the Chargers, so they're out. Someone will eventually win the AFC North, but I can't trust any team that comes out of that division. 

And then there's the Chiefs. I'm not sure if I trust the Chiefs yet, but I should be able to tell you in about two weeks because their next two games are against the Broncos (Week 11) and Colts (Week 12). Basically, I have no idea who's going to win the AFC because I don't trust anyone, which means it's probably going to be the Chiefs. Time is a flat circle. 

Of course, the Chiefs are going to have their hands full with the Broncos this week and if they lose, I'm OUT ON THE CHIEFS. So who's going to win that showdown? Let's get to the picks and find out. 

NFL Week 11 Power Rankings: Belichick who? Drake Maye's rise to stardom has Patriots ahead of schedule

Pete Prisco

Actually, before we get to the Week 11 picks, here's a quick reminder that you can check out the weekly picks from every CBSSports.com NFL expert by clicking here. In completely unrelated news, I'm in charge of the NFL newsletter here at CBSSports.com, which I'm only telling you about because it's the perfect gift for the holidays. If you want to buy someone a gift, but you don't actually want to spend money on them, just subscribe them to the newsletter. It's the gift that keeps on giving. All you have to do is click here and enter their email address. 

Alright, let's do this. 

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NFL Week 11 picks

Washington (3-7) at Miami (3-7) in Madrid

Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET (NFL Network,  Fubo -- try for free)

For the first time ever, the NFL is playing a game in Spain. I've only been to Spain once and they were giving away free shots of Jagermeister at the airport when I got there. And did I mention that they were giving out these free shots at 8 a.m.? Because it was 8 a.m. 

I think my point here is that it's never a bad idea to put a football game in a country that hands out free airport shots at 8 a.m. 

One player who might be able to take a free airport shot of Jagermeister this week is Daron Payne and that's because he'll have some free time to drink since he won't be playing. Payne got hit with a one-game suspension for punching a Lions player on Sunday. If you're going to punch a player, you definitely shouldn't do it the week before an international game. Due to the suspension, Payne is now missing out on a free trip to Spain. 

With Payne out, that means the Commanders will be down a starter and if there's any defense in the NFL that can't afford to be down a starter, it's the Commanders. We all know the Bengals defense is bad, but the Commanders might be worse. 

• They've given up the second-most passing yards per game (394.6)
• They've given up the third-most total yards per game (260.2)
• They've given up the fourth-most points per game (27.0) 

And now, they have to face a Dolphins team that has suddenly remembered how to play football. The Dolphins have scored at least 30 points in two of their past three games and that's because their ground game has caught fire. De'Von Achane almost single-handedly carried the Dolphins to a win by running for 174 yards in Miami's shocking 30-13 win over the Bills. When the Dolphins can run the ball, that takes a lot of pressure off of Tua Tagovailoa and when Tua doesn't have to carry the offense, he seems to play better. 

On paper, the people of Spain aren't getting a great matchup, but there should be some fireworks on Sunday because this is essentially an elimination game. The Dolphins need to win if they want to have any shot at the playoffs, and don't laugh, because it's not that crazy to mention "Dolphins" and "playoffs" in the same sentence. Their next three games are against the Commanders, Saints and Jets, so they could be 6-7 heading into Week 15. 

The Commanders need to win if they want to have any chance of getting Jayden Daniels back for games that matter. If they lose here, they'll be 3-8, and that would basically end their season, because even if they win out, a 9-8 team probably isn't making the playoffs in the NFC. 

With this pick, I think I'm going to roll with the people of Spain and the people of Spain apparently love Dolphins... 

I'm going to have to take Miami here. 

PICK: Dolphins 34-24 over Commanders | Dolphins -2.5 | Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Cincinnati (3-6) at Pittsburgh (5-4)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

Heading into Week 11, the AFC North race has slowly turned into the football equivalent of a Hallmark Channel Christmas movie: I have no idea why I'm paying attention to it, but I am, and I've now watched for so long that I'm fully committed to it so I have to keep watching just to see how it ends. The difference is that Hallmark Christmas movies tend to have happy endings, but I don't see the AFC North having a happy ending for anyone. 

One thing that makes the AFC North so entertaining is the existence of the Bengals. They have what might be the worst defense in the history of football, yet somehow, they've still managed to win three games. In most divisions, if you're 3-6, your fans have given up on you because your season is over, but that's not the case in the AFC North. If the Bengals can somehow pull off the upset here, that would improve their division record to 3-0 and it would move them to within one game of first place. I repeat, the CINCINNATI BENGALS could be within one game of first place if they win on Sunday. 

If you have watched any Bengals game over the past three weeks, then you already know how this game is going to go: 

• There will be no defense played
• A lot of points will be scored
• It won't be decided until the final minute (and possibly final seconds) of the fourth quarter

The Bengals have lost six of their past seven, but the one win in that span came against the Steelers. Back in Week 7, Joe Flacco threw for 342 yards and three touchdowns in a 33-31 win. Flacco had only been on the team for nine days, but he still managed to dice up the Steelers. And don't forget, Mike Tomlin was MAD at the Browns for sending Flacco to Cincinnati. The reason for that is because there is no one who knows Tomlin's defense better than Flacco. He has 12 wins against the Steelers, which is tied with Tom Brady for the most by any QB in NFL history against Pittsburgh. 

As bad as the Bengals defense has been this year, the Steelers have arguably been worse and that's mostly because no one expected them to be bad. No one thought the Bengals defense was going to be good this year, so it's not a huge surprise to see them struggle, but it has been a shocker with the Steelers. 

Through 10 weeks, the Steelers have given up the most passing yards per game in the NFL (269.4). To put that in perspective, the Bengals are only giving up 260.1. Flacco has been dealing with a shoulder injury, but the Bengals will be coming off a bye, so he just had a full week to let the injury heal. He should be ready to roll. 

This feels like a game where Flacco is going to go off again, the only question is whether the Bengals defense will be able to slow down the Steelers at all.

The AFC North is the only division in the NFL where none of the teams have reached six wins yet and I'll say it stays that way with the Bengals pulling off the upset and getting the season sweep of Pittsburgh. 

With Joe Burrow now back at practice, the Bengals should be plenty motivated to pull out a win so that they're still in contention for the division once their star quarterback is ready to return. 

PICK: Bengals 34-31 over Steelers | Bengals +5.5 | Odds via BetMGM

Tampa Bay (6-3) at Buffalo (6-3)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

I don't think I realized how stacked the schedule was this week until I saw that this game is at 1 p.m. ET. There are only three games in Week 11 that will feature two six-win teams and this is one of them. That means you should put the kids to bed and buckle up, because it should be a wild Sunday. Actually, I take that back, 1 p.m. ET is probably too early to put the kids to bed, so maybe tell them to take a short nap. 

Anyway, if the Bills and Buccaneers get into a pregame fight on Sunday, it's probably because they'll be arguing about who had the worst loss in Week 10. On one hand, we have the Bills, who got embarrassed by the Dolphins in a 30-13 loss. You know it was a bad loss when the other team's coach takes a victory lap around a bar full of your fans after the game. 

In Buffalo's defense, this was a classic trap game. The Bills played the Chiefs in Week 9 and they have this game in Week 11, so there's a 50% chance they didn't even bother game-planning for the Dolphins, who were 2-7 going into the game. 

As for Buccaneers, they got run off the field by the Patriots in a 28-23 loss. And when I say they got run off the field, I mean that literally: The Patriots had two touchdown runs of at least 55 yards. If you can run on the Buccaneers, you can beat them. The Bucs are 0-2 this season when they give up 125 yards or more on the ground and 6-1 when they hold their opponent under 125 yards. 

The problem for the Bucs is that I don't think they're going to be able to hold the Bills to under 125 rushing yards. For one, the Bills have James Cook, who is the second-leading rusher in the NFL with 920 yards, but you can't focus on him, because then Josh Allen will take over the game. Speaking of Allen, he has 311 rushing yards this season, which is the fourth-most of any quarterback. That means that Allen and Cook have combined for 1,240 rushing yards this year, which is an average of 137.8 yards per game. I'm not a math major, but I do know that that's higher than 125. Advantage: Bills. 

With their passing game struggling, I think the Bills will go heavy on the ground this week. The Buccaneers will likely keep this close, but I just can't trust a Florida team playing on the road in a northeastern city in November. Also, let's not forget that this game is being played in Buffalo at 1 p.m. ET, which I'm only pointing out because the Bills NEVER lose in that window. Since the start of the 2023 season, the Bills are 9-0 when playing a home game at 1 p.m. ET (including the playoffs). 

If the Bills can earn homefield advantage throughout the playoffs and convince the NFL to schedule every one of their postseason games at 1` p.m. ET, they'll be a lock to make the Super Bowl. 

PICK: Bills 30-23 over Buccaneers | Bills -5.5 |  Odds via Caesars Sportsbook, where new users get 20 100% profit boosts with the code CBS20X:

Seattle (7-2) at L.A. Rams (7-2)

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox,  Fubo -- try for free)

This game will feature two of the top six favorites in the NFL MVP race with Matthew Stafford (second overall favorite) facing off against Sam Darnold (sixth overall favorite). Stafford should probably be the favorite and that's because he's doing things that no one else is doing: He's thrown four touchdown passes with zero interceptions in three straight games, which marks the first time that's ever happened in NFL history. 

Three months ago, Stafford could barely get out of bed in the morning because his back was so bad, but now, he's in the MVP conversation. If anyone should be in the MVP conversation, it's Stafford's back doctor.

As for Darnold, he's also been on a tear this year. Over the past two weeks, he's thrown as many touchdown passes (5) as he has incompletions (5). The Seahawks passing game has been nearly unstoppable this season: Darnold leads the NFL in yards per passing attempt at 9.9, which is an absurd number when you consider that no other QB is even above nine yards per attempt. Also, Jaxson Smith-Njigba leads the NFL in receiving yards. 

If you're going to stop the Seahawks passing attack, the easiest way to do that is to sack Darnold and no one knows how to do that better than the Rams. Last season, Darnold also looked like an MVP candidate while playing for the Vikings. Including the playoffs, he went 14-4 with Minnesota, which broke down like this: He went 0-2 against the Rams and 14-2 against everyone else. 

In those two losses to the Rams, Darnold got sacked a total of 12 times. Darnold is obviously in a completely different situation this year, but he always seems to struggle when he's under pressure. Rams defensive coordinator Chris Shula is very well aware of how to slow Darnold down and I won't be surprised if he dials up the pressure. 

And then you have the Seahawks defense. Mike Macdonald has worked wonders with the unit, but I'm not sure they're going to be able to slow down Stafford. The Rams QB has faced a Macdonald defense two times since the start of the 2023 season. In 2023, Stafford threw for 294 yards and three touchdowns with zero interceptions while Macdonald was the defensive coordinator fort he Ravens. Last season, Stafford played just one game against the Seahawks and he threw for 298 yards and two touchdowns. Based on that, 290-ish yards and multiple TD passes from Stafford sounds about right for Sunday. 

PICK: Rams 27-24 over Seahawks | Rams -2.5 | Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Kansas City (5-4) at Denver (8-2)

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

If you are going to be anywhere near Denver on Sunday, then make sure to get to Empower Field because CBS will be broadcasting live from Chiefs-Broncos. You know it's a big game when we're sending our "The NFL Today" crew and that's exactly what's happening here. 

With all eyes on Denver this week, the good news for me is that one of my main talents in life appears to be picking Broncos games and I know that because heading into Week 11, I'm 9-1 on the season picking their games (That's tied with the Colts for my best record picking any team). If you're wondering why I'm so good at picking Broncos games, the only theory I have is that I once accidentally went to Denver on April 20 (4-20) and I've never been the same since. They have an ENTIRE FESITVAL dedicated to the day. If attending that doesn't make you an expert on everything in Denver, I don't know what does. 

Although I'm good at picking the winner in Broncos' games, I still don't trust them and that's mostly because I'm still not sure how good they are. That seems like a crazy thing to say about an 8-2 team, but their eight wins have come against the Titans, Bengals, Eagles, Jets, Giants, Cowboys, Texans, Raiders. Those eight teams have a combined record of 23-48-1. The Eagles are the only team on that list currently above .500 and the Broncos needed a miracle fourth quarter comeback to beat them. 

The big question with the Bronco is this: Is their defense really that good or has it been propped up by facing bad teams? The Broncos have given up the third-fewest total yards per game (270.7), the third-fewest points per game (17.3) and they have the most sacks (46) in the NFL through 10 weeks. The Broncos have more sacks than the Ravens, Jaguars and 49ers COMBINED. 

The problem with leading the league in sacks when you're about to face the Chiefs is that Patrick Mahomes almost seems to enjoy getting sacked. Somehow, he plays even better when he gets sacked a few times. Since the start of the 2024 season, Mahomes is 8-1 when he gets sacked three or more times in a game. When he's facing pressure, that gives him a chance to make something out of nothing on a broken play and as we all know at this point, no one is better at making something out of nothing. There's a reason his nickname is Homesdini. OK, I'll admit it, I'm the only one who calls him that. 

There is a reason the Chiefs have won nine straight division titles and it's because they always seem to win games like this. This is the fourth time in five years that the Chiefs have entered Week 11 with at least two losses and every time that happens, we start to write them off, and every time we do that, they respond by going on a run that ends up with them in the Super Bowl. 

If the Broncos win, I promise to start trusting them, but I won't be picking against the Chiefs in a must-win divisional showdown until someone proves they can actually beat them. 

PICK: Chiefs 27-23 over Broncos | Chiefs -3.5 | Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

NFL Week 11 picks: All the rest

Patriots 24-13 over Jets
Falcons 24-17 over Panthers
Texans 27-17 over Titans
Vikings 23-20 over Bears
Packers 27-16 over Giants
Chargers 31-24 over Jaguars
49ers 19-16 over Cardinals
Ravens 23-20 over Browns
Lions 30-20 over Eagles
Cowboys 34-27 over Raiders

BYES: Colts, Saints

Last Week

Best pick: Last week, I predicted that the Bears would win a close game with the Giants and that New York would probably blow a double digit lead in the final minutes that would lead to the firing of Brian Daboll and I NAILED IT. OK, I didn't predict the firing of Daboll, but I probably should have seen it coming, because when it comes to blowing late game leads, there was no one better at doing that than Daboll. 

I have to say, I knew he was probably toast after he tried to pull his quarterback out of the blue tent back in Week 6 so he could put him back in the game. 

I'm not sure who the new Giants coach will be, but the lesson here is don't blow leads in the fourth quarter and don't drag your QB out of the concussion tent if you want to keep your job. 

Worst pick: Whenever I pick the Browns to win a game, I always assume that's going to end up being my worst pick of the week, and low and behold, here we are. With the Browns playing a Jets team that had just traded away their two best defensive players, I thought for sure Cleveland would win against New York, but I was wrong. The impressive thing about the Browns is that when they lose, they don't just lose, they go down in flames by losing in a way that no other NFL team has ever lost by before. This happens regularly. 

The Browns didn't turn the ball over and they held the Jet to 169 yards. Over the past 75 years, no NFL team had EVER lost when doing that. 

If that stat doesn't sum up the Browns, I don't know what does. 

Finally, if you guys have ever wondered which teams I'm actually good at picking, I'm going to start sharing that information with you now that we've got 10 full weeks of information. Here's a quick look at my best teams when it comes to picks this year. 

Teams I'm 9-1 picking this year (Straight up): Colts, Broncos, Raiders (8-1), Titans (8-1)
Longest winning streak: Raiders (Eight straight games picked correctly)

Teams I'm the worst at picking: Lions (4-6), Falcons (4-5)
Longest losing streak: Bengals, Panthers, Vikings, Bills (Two straight games picked incorrectly) 

Picks Record

Straight up in Week 10: 8-6
SU overall: 95-53-1

Against the spread in Week 10: 5-9
ATS overall: 69-80

You can find John Breech on Facebook or Twitter, and if he's not doing one of those things, he's probably watching a Hallmark Channel Christmas movie to get mentally prepared for the Bengals-Steelers game.