Cowboys-Packers trade grades and fallout from the shocking Micah Parsons deal, plus ranking AFC teams by tiers

Welcome to the Friday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!

The 2025 NFL season hasn't even started, and I'm pretty sure the Cowboys have already given up. That is my main takeaway from Thursday's shocking trade that saw Jerry Jones ship Micah Parsons to Green Bay. The Cowboys should just forfeit the season and spend the next five months preparing for the 2026 NFL Draft, which would actually make sense, since they now have multiple first-round picks.

As you probably guessed, we'll be breaking down the Parsons trade this newsletter. We'll also be handing out our best win-total bets for 2025.

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1. Micah Parsons trade grades: Cowboys set their franchise back years with inexplicable deal

It appears that Jerry Jones has completely lost his mind, and we know that because that's the only way to explain why he would agree to one of the most shocking trades in NFL history. In a stunning move on Thursday, the Cowboys shipped Micah Parsons off to Green Bay.

Here's a look at the terms of the deal:

Packers get: Micah Parsons
Cowboys get: 2026 first-round pick, 2027 first-round pick, Kenny Clark

Parsons got a four-year, $188 million contract extension from the Packers as part of the trade. At $47 million per year, Parsons is now the highest-paid non-QB in NFL history. He's also being paid more than most quarterbacks, including Patrick Mahomes.

The Cowboys traded away a generational player and got two magic beans in return in the form of two first-round picks. The Cowboys could end up getting two superstars with those picks, but they could also end up with two busts.

Anyway, Jeff Kerr decided to grade the trade, so let's check out what he came up with:

Packers: A+. "There really isn't any other grade to give the Packers here. Green Bay landed a generational pass rusher who isn't even close to entering his prime, all for two first-round picks and star nose tackle Kenny Clark. Sure, Dallas got a haul, but what Green Bay got in return is more significant. ... Based on how the Packers fared the last few seasons, those first-round picks would be in the 20s. Green Bay can afford to part ways with those picks for a generational player like Parsons, whom the Packers needed badly on their defensive line."
Cowboys: D-. "Parsons is a true difference-maker and one of the five best players in football. That's a player any franchise should never allow to leave the building, and the Cowboys did just that. This is why the Cowboys haven't been to a conference championship game in 30 years. This is why the Cowboys are all hype and no substance. This organization lives off VHS tapes of Super Bowl championships while the Philadelphia Eagles have passed them by -- and likely the Washington Commanders as well."

You can see Kerr's full breakdown here. We also have some winners and losers from the trade, and you can can check those out here. Oh, and we also took a look at whether this was the biggest trade in Cowboys history, and you can check that out here.

2. Jerry Jones held a press conference after the trade: 3 things to know

If there's one owner in the NFL who will never waste a chance to talk to the media, it's Jerry Jones, and he didn't waste any time scheduling a press conference after the Parsons trade went down Thursday. Jones, who referred to his former defensive star as 'Michael' Parsons, had a lot to say last night.

Here are three things to know:

Jones said the trade will make the Cowboys better. "This was a move to get us successful in the playoffs," Jones said, via ESPN. "This was a move to be better on defense, stopping the run. This was a move to, if we get behind, not be run on. And it was a deliberate move, a well-thought-out move to make this happen." Jones seems to be using the old "addition by subtraction" logic, and I'm not sure if it makes sense in this case, but we'll soon find out based on how the Cowboys defense looks this year.
Jones hinted at the possibility of making another blockbuster trade. The Cowboys owner didn't rule out the possibility of taking the picks he just got from the Packers and flipping them for a player. "We not only [have] four first-round picks over the next two years," Jones said. "Nothing says we can't use some of those picks right now, to go get somebody right now. Don't rule that out." So the Cowboys might use a pick to make a trade, but they might not. Classic Jerry.
Jones says he gave Parsons an ultimatum. With negotiations at a standstill, Jones said he told Parsons that if a new contract didn't get done, the defensive star would be expected to play under his fifth-year option. "Basically I think I read where [Parsons] said that I replied, 'We're playing under the contract as it exists right now, get ready to play in Philadelphia.' Correct. That was correct," Jones said, via PFT.

We've got more takeaways from Jones' press conference, and you can check those out here.

3. NFL best bets: Looking at our top over/under picks for the 2025 season

Between now and the start of the season, we're going to be offering a lot of predictions, picks and best bets, and that starts right now with our annual picks, where we give you the best win totals to bet on. Tyler Sullivan rounded up nine of our NFL writers here at CBS Sports, and we all offered our two best over/under bets for the 2025 season. I turned in two over/under bets last season and went 2-0, so I'm basically printing out free money with my picks. Let's check out five of the bets we have going this year:

John Breech: Colts OVER 7.5 (+105). I'm not saying I trust Daniel Jones, but I do trust head coach Shane Steichen to get the most out of his starting quarterback. This team won nine games in 2023 with Gardner Minshew starting for the most of the season. The Colts had an ugly QB situation in 2024, and Steichen still managed to lead them to eight wins. In 2025, the Colts have one of the easiest strength of schedules in the NFL, an underrated defense and an offense that could surprise some people as long as Jones doesn't turn the ball over five times per game.
Pete Prisco: Bills OVER 13.5 (+230). "This might seem crazy, but they play in a soft division and the schedule is favorable. They play most of their tough games at home, and their longest road trip is to Houston. Oh, and they are loaded with the MVP at quarterback."
Tyler Sullivan: Broncos OVER 9.5 (+100). "Heading into Bo Nix's sophomore season, Denver has improved the roster around him with the likes of Evan Engram and a revamped backfield with rookie RJ Harvey. That's not to mention they also boast arguably the best defense in the NFL. They have the easiest strength of schedule in the AFC West, and I'm banking on a repeat 10-win season from Nix and Co."
Jared Dubin: Chiefs OVER 11.5 (+110). "Kansas City has won 12-plus games in six of Patrick Mahomes' seven seasons as the starter. I continue to list the Over for the Chiefs as my favorite bet in this exercise, basically every year. It's like they're giving money away."
Jordan Dajani: Rams OVER 9.5 (-125). "If you're scared of Matthew Stafford's back holding up, I understand why you would want to avoid this bet. But Stafford getting hurt is the only way this doesn't hit. Davante Adams, opposite of Puka Nacua, is going to be fun to watch, and the Rams have an incredibly talented defense that was virtually historic last year. "

You can check out all 18 of our best bets here.

4. Why your favorite team will disappoint you this year

Only one NFL team will be walking away with the Lombardi Trophy this year, which means there will be 31 fan bases that will be disappointed at the end of the season. What I'm telling you right now is that you shouldn't get your hopes up this year. Actually, my hopes were up until five minutes ago when Jared Dubin got them down. Dubin went through all 32 teams and came up with one reason why your favorite team will disappoint you during the 2025 season.

Let's take a look at three teams on his list:

49ers: Injuries. Brandon Aiyuk isn't ready to come back just yet. Jauan Jennings is still dealing with a calf injury and holding in for a new contract. Seemingly the entire running back room is hurt. Even some of the defensive additions are dealing with injuries.
Bears: Caleb Williams ain't it. Williams' rookie season was a disappointment. The idea coming into Year 2 is that Ben Johnson and a remade offensive line will lift him back to being the type of player we all thought he could be coming out of USC. And it's, of course, entirely possible that we end up living in that world. But it's also possible that he doesn't fully take to Johnson's system, that Joe Thuney experiences age-related regression, that Jonah Jackson is the same guy who got benched in L.A and that the receiver corps doesn't coalesce the way the Bears hope it will.
Lions: Too much offseason turnover. Speaking of Ben Johnson, he's longer in Detroit. Neither is former Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn, who took former passing-game coordinator Tanner Engstrand with him to New York. Frank Ragnow retired. Kevin Zeitler signed with Tennessee. There is just a whole lot of change going on here, especially on the offensive side of the ball.

Dubin went through all 32 teams and came up with a reason why each one might have a disappointing season, and you can check out his full story here.

5. Ranking AFC contenders by tiers

In Thursday's newsletter, we ranked every team in the NFC by tiers that ranged from Super Bowl contenders (like the Eagles) to teams that have no chance of even making the playoffs (like the Saints). Now we're going to do the same thing, but in the AFC.

Once again, we put Garrett Podell in charge of this. Here's how he has every AFC contender ranked:

TIER 1: In a league of their own -- Chiefs

TIER 2: Real-deal contenders -- Bills, Ravens

TIER 3: Fringe contenders -- Bengals, Chargers, Texans, Steelers

TIER 4: Wild-card wilderness -- Broncos, Jaguars, Patriots, Raiders, Dolphins

TIER 5: How many days until the draft -- Colts, Titans, Jets, Browns

If you want to know how Podell came up with his tiers, you'll have to read his full story. You can do that here.

6. Extra points: Jim Irsay relapsed multiple times in the years before his death

It was a busy 24 hours in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you.

Former Colts owner overdosed multiple times in years before his death. Irsay, who passed away in May at the age of 65, experienced at least three overdoses in the last five years, according to a report from The Washington Post: One in Turks and Caicos in 2020, another at his home in Indiana that took place in December 2023, and a third just days later in December 2023 at a Florida resort that led to a nearly four-month hospitalization. Irsay dealt with addiction for a good chunk of his life. You can read more about the latest details of his death here.
49ers add veteran receiver. After getting cut by the Seahawks this week, Marques Valdez-Scantling has already moved on by signing with the 49ers practice squad. With several banged-up receivers, including Brandon Aiyuk, Jauan Jennings and Jordan Watkins, the 49ers are hurting at the position right now, so adding a veteran definitely makes some sense.
Bears draft pick will miss the entire season. CB Zah Frazier, who was a fifth-round pick in April, will miss the entire season due to a personal matter. The Bears didn't offer very many details about the situation, but you can read more on Frazier here.