Fantasy Football Week 12 Lineup Decisions: Your guide to the toughest starts, sits and flexes

Fantasy Football is all about the matchups. Even though you drafted your team with certain hopes and intentions, your weekly lineup decisions shouldn't be determined by the order you picked your players in. You need to check who your players play and make sure you've got the right guys in -- and the wrong guys out.

We can take some educated guesses based on coaches film, meaningful data, healthy personnel, defensive schemes, track records, and key details of offenses. The things we know can help us minimize the impact of the things we don't know. This should lead to better decisions being made.

We'll go through every game and highlight the players who aren't obvious starts and sits (because you don't need to be told to sit Noah Fant). You should feel more comfortable starting or sitting players based on the information given, and feeling comfortable with your Fantasy lineup before the games start is the best feeling in the world.

All lines from Caesars Sportsbook.

In their past four games, excluding garbage time, the Bills have given up a ridiculous 5.8 yards per carry, a 12.9% explosive rush rate, and six touchdowns to running backs! The Texans haven't faced many opponents with this porous of a rush defense this year but when they have, they've dialed up the RB runs -- 30 times in Week 4, 27 times in Week 5 and, curiously, 21 times in Week 11. That might make you feel good about their chances of actually committing to the run, but two big factors remain: One, the Texans have a grand total of one running back with 12.5-plus PPR points in those three super-favorable matchups because they've insisted so much on splitting carries. Two, if the Bills build a lead, then the Texans will almost certainly abandon their run game. No doubt the matchup is encouraging, as is Woody Marks' snap share (72%) and touches (35!) over the past two weeks, but he's not as explosive as De'Von Achane or even Sean Tucker, both of whom ripped the Bills defense over their last two games. Marks qualifies as a low-end No. 2 Fantasy running back, especially in PPR, but there's all kinds of downside.

When the Texans aren't rushing -- and by their metrics, they throw about 60% of the time -- they should expect the Bills to get pressure on Davis Mills. Buffalo is one of the best teams in the league at getting pressure on the quarterback without having to blitz. Last week, Mills shortened up his average time to throw, resulting in efficient numbers but nothing exciting against the Titans. When he's gotten the ball out quickly over his past three games (under 2.5 seconds), Nico Collins has been his top target (37.7% target per route run rate) followed by Jayden Higgins (27.5%) and Dalton Schultz (26.8%). This is about the most encouraging stat I can come up with in favor of Schultz, who typically wins as a short-area target but faces a Bills pass defense that has routinely shut down tight ends (sometimes they end up blocking more than running routes like Cade Otton did last week). If you start Schultz, you might have to settle for 9 of 10 PPR points because of the matchup, which stinks because Schultz has delivered at least 11 PPR points in each of his past three games (all with Mills) and five of his past six.

MUST STARTS: Josh Allen, James Cook, Nico Collins

STARTS: Woody Marks (low-end No. 2 RB), Dalton Schultz (low-end TE), Bills DST, Texans DST

FLEX: Khalil Shakir

SITS: Davis Mills, Jayden Higgins, Dawson Knox (desperation TE), Christian Kirk, Keon Coleman, Ty Johnson, Nick Chubb, Dare Ogunbowale, Ray Davis

Statistically, there isn't a big drop-off between Tyrod Taylor and Justin Fields on the season, but throw out Week 1 when Fields played well against a Steelers defense he was familiar with and Taylor has Fields beat by a small margin on pretty much every passing category. The film shows that Taylor is better at figuring out coverages and is more willing to attack deep. The problem is that Baltimore's pass defense has only improved as the season has progressed, while their run defense still leaves something to be desired (an 18.2% explosive rush rate allowed in their past four games). Fields' rushing would have stressed the Ravens defensive front! Instead, bank on as much Breece Hall as the Jets can squeeze into the game, including through the air; Taylor's track record includes throwing to his tight ends and Hall had six targets Taylor's Week 3 start. There isn't any other Jets player worth trusting.

MUST-STARTS: Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry

STARTS: Breece Hall, Mark Andrews, Zay Flowers (low-end No. 2 WR), Ravens DST

SITS: Tyrod Taylor, Mason Taylor, Isaiah Likely, John Metchie, Adonai Mitchell, DeAndre Hopkins, Keaton Mitchell, Justice Hill, Isaiah Davis, Jets DST

I'm going to assume the Steelers will go back to heavy man-to-man coverage after playing a ton of zone last week against Joe Flacco. It should mean a lot of Cover-1 defense, which Williams has struggled against this season (one touchdown and an 84.4 QB rating on the year, and it's been even worse in his past five). The Steelers can really bring the pass rush that way and ultimately impact the Bears passing game, which is bad for Caleb Williams and Rome Odunze. The Steelers have allowed 12 receivers to exceed 15 PPR points on the season including three Colts in Week 9, but they've tightened up in their past two games (Ladd McConkey and Tee Higgins each made a spectacular touchdown catch); they even shut down Ja'Marr Chase last week. Playing Jalen Ramsey at safety has made a positive difference. Odunze has been at his best versus man-to-man coverage, but when Williams has been pressured Odunze's target per route run rate flops from 26.5% (no pressure) to 13.7% (pressure). Odunze has landed single-digit PPR points in half of Williams' sub-24-point outings this year. That might be too much risk for Fantasy managers to trust. 

DK Metcalf continues to see safeties play over to his side and on his routes, making him tougher to throw to downfield. The Steelers deserve props for using Metcalf more on shorter crossing routes but it means he'll need even better target volume to land over 10 PPR points, something he's done once in his past five. At least the matchup is relatively favorable -- the Bears have leaned into zone coverage in their past couple of games, partially because their secondary is in rough shape, and Metcalf sees a higher target share and better receiving efficiency against zone coverage than man-to-man, even if his average depth of target is less than half as deep. The Bears did a wonderful job limiting Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison last week but some (not all) of that had to do with mistakes that Minnesota made. Maybe there's enough here to feel okay about Metcalf as a flex. 

STARTS: D'Andre Swift, Jaylen Warren (borderline No. 2/3 RB), Rome Odunze (No. 2 WR), Bears DST (low-end DST)

FLEX: DK Metcalf, Kenneth Gainwell (PPR), Kyle Monangai (non-PPR) 

SITS: Caleb Williams (high-end No. 2 QB), Aaron Rodgers, Luther Burden III (stash), DJ Moore, Colston Loveland, Pat Freiermuth, Calvin Austin III and Roman Wilson (desperation WRs), Jonnu Smith, Steelers DST 

TreVeyon Henderson had some really great moments over his past three games but the return of Rhamondre Stevenson probably will warrant a split in snaps -- just maybe not quite as unbalanced as before. In the three games before Stevenson's absence, Henderson played at most 29.3% of the snaps logged at least four fewer carries than Stevenson. I'd like to think that Henderson's explosive element could get him at least 45% of the snaps while Stevenson hangs on to important duties like short-yardage/goal-line carries and pass protection while still managing some runs. Mike Vrabel did mention this week he wanted to make sure Stevenson could handle his normal volume coming back from injury, so maybe that means he'll see a downtick in snaps. Additionally, former Patriots running back and current CBS Sports HQ football analyst Damien Harris told me that Pats playcaller Josh McDaniels, whom Harris played for, is very detail-oriented and that Stevenson does more of the little things better than Henderson. That figures to still go a long way with McDaniels. If there's good news it's that the Bengals have allowed 13 running backs to notch at least 15 PPR points in 10 games this season, so there's a possibility both running backs come through in Week 12. There's a chance everyone on the Patriots comes through because this Bengals defense is so bad. 

MUST-STARTS: Drake Maye

STARTS: Joe Flacco (low-end No. 1 QB), Tee Higgins, Chase Brown, TreVeyon Henderson (low-end No. 2 RB), Stefon Diggs, Patriots DST

FLEX: Rhamondre Stevenson (non- & half-PPR), Andrei Iosivas (PPR), Kayshon Boutte

SITS: Ja'Marr Chase (suspended this week), Noah Fant (high-end No. 2 TE as long as Mike Gesicki is out), Hunter Henry (high-end No. 2 TE), Mack Hollins, DeMario Douglas, Samaje Perine, Bengals DST

The Jameson Williams post-bye bump is very real and very likely to continue. For starters, he's been great in each of three games and doing so on 6 or 7 targets per contest with a steady 10.0 average depth of target. My colleague Jacob Gibbs has noted how effective Williams has been on horizontal routes (digs, crossers, posts, etc.), a change in role from earlier in the season. But it's really just as simple as knowing that for however long Sam LaPorta is out, Williams should shine. He's especially clobbered man-to-man coverage, which seems to be the preferred way the Giants defense plays, especially on third downs and when they're trailing in the second halves of games. Also, all three of Jared Goff's biggest games this season have been lopsided Lions blowout wins; two of those came after losses the week prior. There's a chance for another one of those bounce-back gems this week. 

MUST-STARTS: Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown

STARTS: Jared Goff, Jameson Williams, David Montgomery (low-end No. 2 RB), Lions DST

FLEX: Wan'Dale Robinson (PPR)

SITS: Jaxson Dart (borderline No. 1/2 QB), Theo Johnson (high-end No. 2 PPR TE), Devin Singletary (desperation RB), Tyrone Tracy Jr., Isaiah Hodgins, Brock Wright, Giants DST

J.J. McCarthy was off-target on eight throws by my count including two of his interceptions last week and a third pass that should have been picked. His receivers dropped at least four passes also. Candidly, this passing offense looked disjointed until their final drive in which McCarthy overcame a drop and a tipped pass, hit Jordan Addison on a hitch on fourth down and eventually found him again for a touchdown on a sort-of late throw to give the Vikings a one-point lead with 50 seconds left. Had McCarthy connected better than that with his receivers earlier in the game then the narrative would be different going into this week's matchup. Instead he'll face a Packers defense that's struggled to pressure the quarterback on its past three games (three sacks total) but has evolved into a strong run defense unit over the past couple of games. It's going to be a little tough to trust McCarthy's receivers fully since the whole passing unit has been so off -- McCarthy has completed just 50.5% of his passes for 5.5 yards per attempt since coming back from injury. 

MUST STARTS: Justin Jefferson (high-end No. 2 WR)

STARTS: Emanuel Wilson (No. 2 RB), Aaron Jones, Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson (both low-end No. 2 WRs), Packers DST

FLEX: Jordan Addison

SITS: Jordan Love (high-end No. 2 QB), J.J. McCarthy, Jordan Mason, T.J. Hockenson, Dontayvion Wicks, Jalen Nailor, Chris Brooks, Vikings DST

The Chiefs are going to be focused on hounding Daniel Jones in hopes of creating some turnovers. Pass rush pressure has played a role in forcing him into 12 sacks, three fumbles lost and four interceptions in his past two games, so expect Steve Spagnuolo to dial up some exotics. Indy can combat that by having Jones get the ball out fast, but he's never been much of a snap-and-throw guy this season, often relying on his pocket mobility to keep plays alive. He's struggled with exactly that in his last two games and could be his downfall in a third. Only two quarterbacks -- Josh Allen and Trevor Lawrence -- have done better than 21 Fantasy points against the Chiefs in their past eight, a list that includes Jalen Hurts, Jared Goff, Lamar Jackson and Bo Nix. 

If the matchup is going to be challenging for Jones then it'll be challenging for his pass-catchers too. Just three receivers have topped 15 PPR points against the Chiefs this year, and two were in Week 1. Of the 11 receivers with seven-plus targets, six did manage to top 13 PPR points (half also exceeded 15). These are tough correlations for Michael Pittman, Alec Pierce and Josh Downs' Fantasy managers to wrestle with. And unless the Colts dominate time of possession, they won't all see a lot of targets unless Jonathan Taylor is bottled up. Deep targets (15-plus air yards) to receivers have been caught at a 64.3% clip against the Chiefs in their past three games for 27.1 yards per grab, a big shift from earlier in the year and something the Broncos exploited last week. Pierce has dominated that role for Indy and could make him worth the Fantasy gamble. Kansas City is much better on shorter throws, which is where Pittman and Downs tend to get the majority of their targets. They could catch a lot of passes but not break them for big plays. 

MUST-STARTS: Patrick Mahomes, Jonathan Taylor, Rashee Rice, Tyler Warren

STARTS: Michael Pittman, Travis Kelce, Chiefs DST (low-end starter; might not use them again until Week 14)

FLEX: Alec Pierce, Kareem Hunt

SITS: Daniel Jones, Josh Downs (desperation PPR WR), Xavier Worthy, Marquise Brown, Brashard Smith, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Colts DST 

Tennessee deserves credit for stopping Woody Marks and the Texans' run game last week, absorbing 21 RB runs and giving up just 2.9 yards per carry. Getting Jeffery Simmons back and next to fellow behemoth T'Vondre Sweat absolutely impacts how offenses run the ball, even when running to the edges. So while it's cool that the Seahawks coaching staff has finally realized that Kenneth Walker is their best rusher, the matchup this week is not good at all, especially if rookie guard Grey Zabel is out. What it might mean is Sam Darnold getting a rich bounce-back opportunity against a Titans defense that's afforded at least 27 Fantasy points to three of the past four quarterbacks they've faced. It might mean an efficient game for Darnold -- think 250-2-0 for a stat line. 

MUST-STARTS: Jaxon Smith-Njigba

STARTS: Kenneth Walker III, Seahawks DST 

SITS: Sam Darnold (borderline No. 1/2 QB), Cam Ward, A.J. Barner and Chig Okonkwo (desperation PPR TEs), Zach Charbonnet (desperation RB), Tyjae Spears (desperation PPR RB), Tony Pollard, Chimere Dike, Rashid Shaheed, Cooper Kupp, Titans DST

What else do you need to see from Jacoby Brissett to believe in his ability to rack up stats? His worst game during his five-week stretch as the Cardinals starter has been 23.4 Fantasy points, and now he'll take on a Jaguars defense that gave up 31-plus Fantasy points to three straight quarterbacks before collapsing Justin Herbert in Week 11. I suppose there's some cause for concern for Brissett if his offensive line is down to its third-string right tackle and a backup guard, but even then he should be able to get the ball out quick to his receivers. That's actually been a secret for Brissett -- he has over 100 yards passing in 4 of 5 games just from his receivers adding yards after the catch. The Jaguars are capable of bringing pressure and have seven sacks in their past three games, but only 15 for the season. It's enough to trust Brissett -- and his top targets -- for Week 12. 

MUST-STARTS: Trey McBride

STARTS: Jacoby Brissett, Michael Wilson (especially in PPR), Travis Etienne, 

FLEX: Zonovan Knight, Greg Dortch (low-end PPR flex), Bhayshul Tuten (low-end flex), Jakobi Meyers

SITS: Trevor Lawrence, Parker Washington (desperation PPR WR), Michael Carter, Jaguars DST, Cardinals DST

This will obviously be a big step-up in class for the Cowboys defense after they dominated the Raiders on Monday, but it's going to end up as a big test for the Eagles offense, too. Down potentially two starting offensive linemen including veteran stud right tackle Lane Johnson, Philly will need answers for the Cowboys' replenished front that includes party crasher Quinnen Williams and linebackers Logan Wilson and DeMarvion Overshown, each of whom played great. Maybe there's room for Jalen Hurts to strike downfield against the likes of cornerback Caelen Carson, but he'll also have to navigate that Dallas front and certainly throw with better accuracy than he did last week. Before the Cowboys' trade deadline moves I would have believed in that happening, but now I'm not as confident, especially since his pass protection has taken a significant hit. The Cowboys have gotten a pass rush pressure rate north of 40% in six of their past seven games, so this isn't something spurred on by Williams' arrival but is definitely enhanced by it. It's easier to lower expectations for Hurts after he's been below 15 Fantasy points in two straight games against tough defenses, but pulling him from lineups altogether figures to be tougher.

MUST-STARTS: Jalen Hurts, CeeDee Lamb, Saquon Barkley

STARTS: Dak Prescott (low-end No. 1 QB), Javonte Williams, George Pickens, DeVonta Smith, A.J. Brown, Jake Ferguson, Dallas Goedert, Eagles DST 

SITS: Jahan Dotson, Tank Bigsby, Cowboys DST

It's not fair to judge Shedeur Sanders off of his second half last week when he seemed unprepared -- a week's worth of practice should help him understand what's asked of him. But this is still a tough scene for him against a Raiders defense desperate for a win and more than capable of lining up against this Browns offense. Browns coach Kevin Stefanski kept things really simple for Dillon Gabriel not just in his first start but pretty much every start, and he'll do the same for Sanders. That means a lot of short throws and easy reads to prevent Sanders from holding the ball too long. That was a problem for him at Colorado, frequently drifting so far back out of the pocket that it added over five yards to many throws. If the Browns can give him some clean pockets, Sanders will surprise with some good completions, but that may not happen all that often behind an offensive line giving up the second-highest pass rush pressure rate this season. Expect a bumpy performance from Sanders, and thus disappointing stats from Browns pass-catchers, but nothing as bad as last week.

MUST-STARTS: Brock Bowers

STARTS: Ashton Jeanty, Quinshon Judkins, Harold Fannin Jr. (low-end No. 1 TE), Browns DST, Raiders DST

FLEX: Tre Tucker

SITS: Geno Smith, Shedeur Sanders, David Njoku, Tyler Lockett, Jerry Jeudy, Cedric Tillman, Raheem Mostert, Dylan Sampson, Jerome Ford

In his Week 8 start against a then-weak Miami defense Kirk Cousins was sensitive to pass rush pressure, without velocity on most of his throws, 9 of 19 passing on throws of five-plus air yards, touchdownless and under 10 Fantasy points. Last week he 14 dropbacks filling in for an injured Michael Penix Jr. and looked the same. The Falcons would be insane not to try to ride its run game for as long as possible, even if the Saints run defense has actually looked passable in its past three games (3.7 yards per carry, 4.9% explosive rush rate allowed). Kyle Pitts stepped up as a short-area target for Kirk Cousins in Week 8 and should be that again, giving him some upside in PPR. No one should be ready to trust anyone else in the Falcons passing game, including Darnell Mooney who will assume No. 1 receiver duties this week.

MUST-STARTS: Bijan Robinson

STARTS: Chris Olave, Juwan Johnson, Kyle Pitts (low-end PPR TE)

FLEX: Alvin Kamara, Tyler Allgeier (non-PPR)

SITS: Tyler Shough, Kirk Cousins, Darnell Mooney, Falcons DST (high-end No. 2 DST), Saints DST (kind of a sneaky sleeper)

The Rams have been rolling, but a lack of pass rush pressure over their last three games could give Baker Mayfield the time he needs to rock that secondary for a big game. Since their Week 8 bye, L.A. has accumulated just one sack and a pass rush pressure rate of 29.4%. Sam Darnold made this defense look like superstars with his four interceptions, and Tyler Shough was all about getting the ball out of his hands quickly in his first start, but Mac Jones came through for a 29.1 blockbuster in Week 10. Mayfield is capable of matching that mark, especially since his run game doesn't figure to be as promising this week -- the Rams have given up just 3.6 yards per rush and a paltry 2.9% explosive rush rate over their past four games (garbage time excluded). I'm encouraged to give all the top players in the Bucs passing game a lineup spot this week.  

MUST-STARTS: Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, Davante Adams

STARTS: Matthew Stafford, Baker Mayfield, Emeka Egbuka, 

FLEX: Tez Johnson, Sean Tucker (non-PPR)

SITS: Rachaad White (desperation PPR RB), Sterling Shepard (desperation WR), Colby Parkinson, Terrance Ferguson, Blake Corum, Rams DST (high-end No. 2 DST), Buccaneers DST

Tetairoa McMillan surprised me last week -- I didn't think he'd have the opportunities to rack up numbers, nor did I think the Panthers would be able to protect Bryce Young against a good Falcons pass rush. I'll take the L on McMillan and apply the lesson learned last week to this week: When Young has time to throw, especially against an inferior defense, expect good things for McMillan. The 49ers are among the worst in the league in terms of pass rush pressure -- they have eight sacks since Week 3 when Nick Bosa went down with an injury. Between that and the 49ers putting up points of their own against the Panthers' suspect defense, it's fair to expect another solid game for Young and potentially a great game for McMillan. After all, it was this 49ers defense that afforded Michael Wilson the chance to perform like Larry Fitzgerald last week -- and he was just one of three Cardinals pass catchers to top 15 PPR points. At least one receiver has turned in 13.6 PPR points against the 49ers in four straight games. I'd like to think I would be encouraged to start McMillan this week even if he had struck out last week. 

MUST-STARTS: Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle

STARTS: Brock Purdy, Rico Dowdle, Tetairoa McMillan

FLEX: Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall (both borderline No. 2/3 PPR WR), Xavier Legette (low-end flex)

SITS: Bryce Young, Jalen Coker, Ja'Tavion Sanders, Brian Robinson Jr., 49ers DST, Panthers DST