NFL predictions: Tracking team season win totals six weeks into the year
According to the SportsLine Inside the Lines Team and Projection Model, Over bettors should still have hope on cashing a ticket on this 1-5 AFC team's season win total
The Patriots, Buccaneers and Colts are up. The Ravens, Bengals and Dolphins are down.
About one-third of the NFL season is complete, and much of the league has been turned upside-down. The one thing that has played out exactly how football fans expected prior to the season is the Jets still being the Jets. At 0-6, they are the only winless team in the league.
New York's season win total was 5.5 in the preseason, so the Jets are well on their way to staying Under their total.
But Jets Under bettors aren't the only ones who are close to counting their money. Through six weeks of the season, there are three NFL teams that have at least a 90.0% chance to go Over their win totals and three teams that have at least a 90.0% chance to stay Under their totals, according to SportsLine's Inside the Lines Team and Projection Model. Moreover, there are three other teams that may seem trending in one direction, but the model likes to go the other direction.
Let's go through the interesting cases.
| Projected wins | Preseason line | Over percentage | Under percentage | |
| Bills | 11.2 | 11.5 | 43.7% | 56.3% |
| Chiefs | 10.3 | 11.5 | 22.0% | 78.0% |
| Eagles | 10.2 | 11.5 | 21.4% | 78.6% |
| Ravens | 7.4 | 11.5 | 0.2% | 99.8% |
| Lions | 11.0 | 10.5 | 63.8% | 36.2% |
| Packers | 10.2 | 10.5 | 44.3% | 55.7% |
| 49ers | 9.6 | 10.5 | 28.5% | 71.5% |
| Buccaneers | 11.9 | 9.5 | 93.7% | 6.3% |
| Broncos | 10.7 | 9.5 | 77.8% | 22.2% |
| Rams | 10.1 | 9.5 | 63.8% | 36.2% |
| Chargers | 9.8 | 9.5 | 56.4% | 43.6% |
| Texans | 8.7 | 9.5 | 32.3% | 67.7% |
| Commanders | 8.7 | 9.5 | 30.5% | 69.5% |
| Bengals | 6.3 | 9.5 | 2.1% | 97.9% |
| Steelers | 10.7 | 8.5 | 90.9% | 9.1% |
| Seahawks | 10.4 | 8.5 | 88.0% | 12.0% |
| Patriots | 9.8 | 8.5 | 78.6% | 21.4% |
| Bears | 8.8 | 8.5 | 56.5% | 43.5% |
| Vikings | 8.4 | 8.5 | 47.5% | 52.5% |
| Cardinals | 7.5 | 8.5 | 25.7% | 74.3% |
| Colts | 11.4 | 7.5 | 99.4% | 0.6% |
| Jaguars | 9.4 | 7.5 | 88.4% | 11.6% |
| Falcons | 8.5 | 7.5 | 71.5% | 28.5% |
| Cowboys | 7.0 | 7.5 | 37.5% | 62.5% |
| Dolphins | 5.4 | 7.5 | 9.7% | 90.3% |
| Panthers | 6.5 | 6.5 | 48.4% | 51.6% |
| Raiders | 5.5 | 6.5 | 25.1% | 74.9% |
| Giants | 5.9 | 5.5 | 59.8% | 40.2% |
| Saints | 5.9 | 5.5 | 60.0% | 40.0% |
| Jets | 4.5 | 5.5 | 26.5% | 73.5% |
| Titans | 3.7 | 5.5 | 10.1% | 89.9% |
| Browns | 5.8 | 4.5 | 78.3% | 21.7% |
- The 5-1 Colts (99.4%), 5-1 Buccaneers (93.7%) and 4-1 Steelers (90.9%) all have a 90.0% chance or better of going Over their win total. "Tampa Bay is exceeding expectations left and right despite their injuries," SportsLine's Inside the Lines Team says. "Eventually they'll get healthy, and at +1900, 5% on FanDuel to win it all and 9.7% in simulations, they are a good bet to win the Super Bowl."
- However, the 1-5 Ravens (99.8%), 2-4 Bengals (97.9%) and 1-5 Dolphins (90.3%) are on the other end of the spectrum, with a 90.0% chance or better of staying Under their total. According to the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, Baltimore is projected to finish with 7.4 wins, well below its total of 11.5.
But those are not the most interesting teams in the model's latest projections.
- Through six games, the Browns (1-5) have been arguably the worst team in the league not named the Jets. Cleveland ranks last in the NFL in scoring offense (13.7 points per game) and is one week removed from trading the quarterback (Joe Flacco) who had opened the season as the starter as well as a starting cornerback (Greg Newsome II). Rookie Dillon Gabriel is starting behind center. Yet the model still gives the Browns a 78.3% chance to go Over their preseason total of 4.5 wins. "They have a great defense, and Gabriel is at least not turning it over," says Stephen Oh, SportsLine's principal data engineer and the man behind the model. "They have around a 50-50 shot in a lot of upcoming games (Dolphins, Jets, Raiders and Titans), and who knows if Joe Burrow will be back in Week 18 or not, and who knows if the Ravens will be anything close to what they are supposed to be in a month. Four more wins in 12 remaining games is only a 33.3% win percentage, so that is not a high bar to reach when you have the best defensive player in the league, a very good running game and what seems to be a game manager at QB."
- Meanwhile, the Packers (3-1-1) have been one of the best teams in the NFL this season and are one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl, listed at +800 at DraftKings, behind only the Bills and Chiefs (both +650). Green Bay has a balanced offense and a defense giving up just 20.4 points a game (10th in the league). But the model says the Packers have a 55.7% chance to win just seven or fewer games the rest of the way and stay Under their total of 10.5 wins. "The tie against Dallas really hurt their chances of going Over," Oh says. "It was an odds-implied 0.7 wins that counts as a loss from a win total betting standpoint."
- And the Saints (1-5) seem trending to stay Under their win total of 5.5. But four of their five losses have come against teams -- the 49ers, Seahawks, Bills and Patriots -- that are a combined 16-8. New Orleans' schedule the rest of the season eases up considerably; the team's remaining strength of schedule is the third-easiest in the league. For that reason, the model gives the Saints a 60.0% chance to go Over 5.5 wins.
