NFL predictions: Titans have close to 50% chance for second straight No. 1 overall pick

Since the inception of the NFL Draft in 1936, a team has had the No. 1 overall pick in back-to-back years eight times, with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Cleveland Browns both accomplishing the feat twice. The most recent club to pick first in consecutive years was the Jacksonville Jaguars, who selected quarterback Trevor Lawrence in 2021 and defensive end Travon Walker in the following draft.

The Tennessee Titans have a solid chance to join the group, as they have won just one of their first nine games this season. Tennessee owned the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft after going 3-14 last year and selected quarterback Cam Ward, who is 18th in the league with 1,760 passing yards after nine weeks and made just five touchdown passes while throwing six interceptions.

There's plenty of competition for the top pick at the moment, as the New Orleans Saints possess the same 1-8 record as the Titans, who are on a bye in Week 10. The New York Jets are 1-7 after posting their first victory of 2025 in Week 8, while the Miami Dolphins and New York Giants sit at 2-7. Meanwhile, the Las Vegas Raiders and Cleveland Browns both are 2-6, and seven other teams enter Week 10 with only three wins.

Tennessee currently has the most difficult remaining schedule among the seven teams with fewer than three victories, as five of its final eight games are against opponents with a winning record. Las Vegas is next, as five of its remaining nine foes are over .500, while New Orleans only faces three clubs with a winning mark over its last eight contests.

The Titans still have two meetings with the AFC South-rival Jaguars on their slate, along with contests against the Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs. Meanwhile, the Raiders face the Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers and reigning Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles once and the Denver Broncos twice.

Tennessee suffered its fourth consecutive loss in Week 9 as it dropped a 27-20 decision to the Chargers at home. Following this week's bye, the Titans return with three more contests at Nissan Stadium, beginning with a divisional matchup against the disappointing Houston Texans (3-5) in Week 11.

The Saints, who are 0-4 on the road this season, visit the surprising Carolina Panthers (5-4) in an NFC South showdown this week before going on their bye. They come back to take on the division-rival Atlanta Falcons (3-5) and Dolphins before facing the toughest remaining stretch of their schedule, which has them battling the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-2) and Panthers.

SportsLine's Inside the Lines team and its projection model don't see New Orleans losing more games than Tennessee and finishing with the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. The ITL team's model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, feels the Titans will be hard-pressed to register more than two wins over their final eight games and secure the top overall selection.

The ITL team's model says the Saints will finish with more than four victories this season, while the Titans won't reach that mark and will have the No. 1 draft pick for the second straight year and fourth time in franchise history. After selecting Ward first overall this past April, Tennessee will be looking to address other needs in the 2026 NFL Draft, such as wide receiver, edge rusher or cornerback.

New Orleans are 5.5-point underdogs in its matchup against Carolina on Sunday. The Saints have lost each of their last three games by double digits, with the last two defeats being by at least 20 points. Meanwhile, the Panthers are coming off their fourth win in five contests - a stunning 16-13 triumph over the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field.

According to the model, the Saints -- who lost by one point at Carolina last season -- will keep this meeting close, as they cover the spread in 54% of simulations. However, it is predicting a 24-20 victory by the Panthers, who are 3-1 at home this season.