NFL predictions: Jets beaten out for No. 1 overall pick, coin flip for a top-three selection

Fans of the New York Jets have endured more bad fortune than they deserve during the franchise's first 65 years of existence. The most recent catastrophe was the Aaron Rodgers experiment, which failed miserably but fortunately lasted only two years.

There was a bit of optimism entering the 2025 NFL season as New York called upon a star player from yesteryear to help guide it to greener pastures, hiring three-time Pro-Bowl cornerback Aaron Glenn to be its head coach following his successful stint as the Detroit Lions' defensive coordinator. The Jets then signed the gifted but maligned Justin Fields to be their quarterback under Glenn, whom the team selected with the 12th overall pick in the 1994 NFL Draft.

Neither decision has worked out favorably for New York thus far. It enters Week 7 as the only winless team in the league, Fields has done nothing to prove why he should be a No. 1 QB and Glenn has made a number of questionable decisions, doing little to dispel the thought that he may be overmatched.

With the 0-6 Jets set to host the Carolina Panthers in Week 7, many fans likely are hoping the team continues to lose and winds up with the first overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. The only time the club has had the top selection was in 1996, when it drafted USC wide receiver Keyshawn Johnson. He lasted only four seasons with New York before being traded to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, with whom he won a Super Bowl in 2002.

The Jets had the inside track for the No. 1 pick in 2021, as they lost their first 13 games of the 2020 season. However, they then posted back-to-back victories against the Los Angeles Rams and Cleveland Browns and finished with a 2-14 record, allowing the Jacksonville Jaguars -- who followed a season-opening win with a 15-game losing streak -- to overtake them for the right to take Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence with the top selection.

One victory could do significant damage to New York's chances for the No. 1 pick in 2026, as five teams enter Week 7 with a 1-5 record and four more are sitting at 2-4. The Jets still have five of those nine clubs on their schedule, so things still could swing in their favor.

However, SportsLine's Inside the Lines team and its projection model doesn't see New York selecting first in the 2026 NFL Draft. But the ITL team's model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, feels the Jets' chances to be one of the first three teams to step up to the podium in Pittsburgh next April are strong.

According to the ITL team's model, the Jets will finish with more than four victories this season, while the Titans won't reach that mark and will have the No. 1 draft pick for the second straight year and fourth time in franchise history. This past April, Tennessee selected Miami QB Cam Ward first overall, but the 23-year-old has recorded more than 225 passing yards just once in his first six games and has yet to throw multiple touchdown passes in a contest while being sacked an NFL-high 25 times.

The Jets opened as 2.5-point favorites in their matchup against the Panthers at several sportsbooks despite last week's 13-11 loss in London to the Broncos in which Fields was sacked nine times and the team finished with -10 passing yards. But they now are 1.5-point underdogs versus Carolina, which has won back-to-back games and three of its last four but is 0-3 on the road this season.

According to the model, the Jets finally will get into the win column, as they defeat the Panthers in 56% of simulations. It is predicting a 24-21 victory for the club, which visits Cincinnati in Week 8 before giving its fans a break with what feels like a much-needed bye week.