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USATSI

Despite a down week, I still hold the No. 1 spot at CBS Sports with a 52-41 against-the-spread mark. However, I'm not dominating my best bets, as the Denver Broncos struggled with the New York Jets in London, the Carolina Panthers are apparently unbeatable at home and the Indianapolis Colts couldn't cover the spread vs. the Arizona Cardinals. 

This week, we will see if the Tennessee Titans get an interim coach bump against their former lead man, Mike Vrabel, as he leads the New England Patriots into Nashville, the New York Giants look to build on their momentum against the Broncos, and Baker Mayfield aims to further his MVP case against the Detroit Lions. We also get another Monday night double-header, if you're into those. 

Here's a look at what I'm thinking for Week 7. As always, credit to the CBS Sports research team for making me sound smart. 

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, where new users get $300 in bonus bets with a winning $5 bet:

Top five picks ATS record: 12-18
Overall ATS record: 52-41
Straight up record: 61-31-1

New England Patriots (-7) at Tennessee Titans

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Stream on Paramount+)

Since 2015, teams that fire their head coach midseason are 13-12 in their next game. Titans owner Amy Adams Strunk is clearly hoping for that "interim bump" against Mike Vrabel, but I can't bring myself to bet on this Titans squad. One coach for the Las Vegas Raiders told The Athletic's Michael Silver this week that the Titans may be the worst team they have seen in the last 25 years. 

Four of Tennessee's five losses have come by double digits, and the Titans have covered the spread just once according to the lines I've included in this column. The Patriots hold first place in the AFC East for the first time since 2021, are clearly playing good football and Vrabel is motivated to win on his former home field. The Titans on the other hand haven't shown much promise, and could be down their top three pass rushers on Sunday plus WR1 Calvin Ridley. Vrabel beats his former team, but does so respectfully. 

The pick: Patriots -7
Projected score: Patriots 27-17

Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns (-2.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Stream on Paramount+)

The Browns have been included in my best bets plenty this year, but usually because I'm fading them. This time, I'm backing them. This Miami defense allows 389.3 yards of total offense, which ranks third-worst in the NFL, and 29 points per game, which ranks fourth-worst in the NFL. Then, the run defense ranks dead last with 168.5 rushing yards surrendered per game, so Quinshon Judkins should be able to find success.

This is the first time the Browns have been favored in a game since Week 11 last year, but I think it's warranted. Not only are the Dolphins bad, but Tua Tagovailoa may have rubbed teammates the wrong way by randomly bringing up that some have been late to players-only meetings. It's just more negative attention for a head coach and a franchise that doesn't need it. This is the Browns' first home game since Week 3, when they upset Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers. Dillon Gabriel scores his first career victory this Sunday. 

The pick: Browns -2.5
Projected score: Browns 20-17

Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5)

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS, Stream on Paramount+)

This week, the Colts are looking to avenge their lone loss of the season, which came to the Rams in SoFi Stadium. This time, Indiana Jones is taking on the Chargers in SoFi Stadium, who have struggled a bit as of late. L.A. was upset by Jaxson Dart in his first NFL start in Week 4, got upset again by the Washington Commanders and Bill Croskey-Merritt the following week, then needed a game-winning drive to defeat the lowly Dolphins last week.

Kimani Vidal had 124 yards rushing in place of Omarion Hampton, but that came against a Dolphins defense that ranks dead last against the run. Justin Herbert is still dealing with an injured offensive line, but we will get more clarity on that Friday afternoon. 

The Colts lead the NFL in points per game (32.3) and point differential per game (+13) this season. If they want to be talked about as a legitimate AFC contender, they need to win this game.

The pick: Colts +1.5
Projected score: Colts 28-24

New York Giants at Denver Broncos (-7)

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS, Stream on Paramount+)

The Broncos are coming off a disgusting win in London with no bye week and an offense that looks disjointed, while the Giants are coming off a mini bye following a statement blowout victory over the Philadelphia Eagles, yet the Broncos are favored by a whole touchdown? I think that's too much. The Giants have registered two wins while being an underdog of at least five points in just the last three weeks!

Denver has won three straight games following a 1-2 start, but only one of those victories was relatively impressive. The Broncos punked the hapless Cincinnati Bengals, had a comeback win over the struggling Eagles and then defeated the winless Jets by just two points. Justin Fields had negative 10 net passing yards and still had his team within two points.

Jaxson Dart and Cam Skattebo are the dynamic duo the Giants deserve. As long as they don't turn the ball over on five straight drives like in Week 5, I say this game will be close. 

The pick: Giants +7
Projected score: Broncos 24-20

Washington Commanders (-1.5) at Dallas Cowboys

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, Stream: Fubo, try for free)

Yes, the Cowboys have the worst defense in the NFL as the only unit to allow more than 400 yards of total offense per game, but there are three reasons why I'm falling into the Dallas trap yet again. 

  1. Dak Prescott is 6-0 with 17 passing touchdowns and zero interceptions in his career vs. the Commanders at home, and Dallas is averaging 41.3 points per game in those contests. He is also 34-9 SU and 30-12-1 ATS in his career vs. the NFC East. 
  2. CeeDee Lamb is set to make his return to the lineup after missing three games with an ankle injury. It's going to be fun to see him play alongside George Pickens, who has been on fire. 
  3. Washington's injury report is worrisome. Deebo Samuel (heel) and Terry McLaurin (quad) did not practice on Thursday, nor did defensive end Dorance Armstrong (hamstring). 

Jayden Daniels will still be able to move the ball vs. a bad defense, but if Washington loses the turnover battle in grandiose fashion like it did on Monday night, Dallas definitely wins this game. 

The pick: Cowboys +1.5
Projected score: Cowboys 31-30

Other Week 7 picks

Steelers 21-17 over Bengals (+5.5)
Rams (-3) 24-18 over Jaguars
Eagles (-2.5) 27-21 over Vikings
Chiefs 28-19 over Raiders (+11.5)
Bears 23-21 over Saints (+4.5)
Panthers (-1.5) 17-14 over Jets
Packers 22-20 over Cardinals (+6.5)
Falcons (+1.5) 21-20 over 49ers
Lions (-5.5) 31-24 over Buccaneers
Seahawks 20-17 over Texans (+3.5)