NFL tier rankings for all 32 teams: Separating contenders from pretenders as 2025 playoff race takes shape
Halfway through the NFL season, here's a tiered look at which teams are still in the mix
By
Jared Dubin
•
5 min read
We're halfway through the 2025 NFL season, which means it's time to once again check in on where things stand, in a big picture sense. We have almost as much information as is necessary to truly separate the contenders from the pretenders this season, so that's what we're going to try to do.
Just as we did a few weeks ago, we're splitting the league into four buckets: the inner and outer circles of contenders, fringe playoff teams and those that should be making draft preparations. Those tiers are listed below, with the teams in each tier listed in alphabetical order.
Tier 4: Draft preparations
We'll see you all in Pittsburgh. Given your record and/or your injury situation, you're likely playing for draft positioning at this point.
Tier 3: The fringe
These teams are not yet eliminated from playoff contention, but they also seem fairly unlikely to make much noise if they do make it to the postseason because of their various flaws.
For the Bears, Bengals, Cowboys and Steelers, that flaw is just their defense. Those teams all rank inside the bottom seven in yards allowed and three of them are in the bottom four in points allowed. They check in 24th, 32nd, 31st and 21st, respectively, in EPA per play allowed, via Tru Media, with all of them ranking in the bottom eight against the pass and only the Bears checking in as above-average against the run. I don't care how good your offense is; you can't expect to win playoff games when the other team can consistently light you up on the opposite side of the ball.
For the Falcons, Panthers, Texans and Vikings, the questions are mainly on the offensive side. Atlanta can run it, but Michael Penix Jr. has been highly inconsistent. Rico Dowdle can run it, but Bryce Young and the passing offense are not nearly consistent enough. The Texans have been plodding their way through the season offensively all year. And we've only seen three games of the Vikings' offense with J.J. McCarthy under center, and that offense has looked decent or better for maybe five quarters.
Tier 2: The outer circle
This is probably the most interesting tier, given that it includes teams with records ranging from 7-2 to just 3-5. These are the teams that are contenders, but have ... something missing that is holding us back from declaring them to be among the best of the best.
For the 49ers, that something is the massive wave of injuries. They're still without Brandon Aiyuk and Ricky Pearsall. Fred Warner and Nick Bosa are out for the year. We don't know if or when Brock Purdy will be fully healthy. It's just a lot to deal with. The Bucs have injuries of their own with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Bucky Irving and more still sidelined. And their offense unsurprisingly hasn't been as consistent or explosive as it was last year.
The Broncos have an elite defense, but their offense is ... suspect and can look terrible for multiple quarters at a time. We've seen that it also has the capability to go off at any moment, but those lulls are concerning to say the least. The Chargers may or may not have any healthy offensive linemen remaining on their roster at the moment.
The Colts are still quarterbacked by Daniel Jones, who can turn back into a pumpkin at any moment. We saw what it looks like when that team has to play from behind instead of ahead last week against the Steelers. There are still question marks on defense as well -- even after the acquisition of Sauce Gardner. The Packers, too, consistently play down to the level of their competition, which puts them in the inner circle right now. They've lost to the Browns and Panthers, tied the Cowboys and barely beat the Cardinals. Let's see them perform at a consistently high level.
The Patriots are almost entirely dependent on Drake Maye bailing out the rest of their offense. He's mostly done it so far, but there are mild concerns that they don't have enough explosive skill-position talent to compete with the other best offenses. And the Ravens are still only 3-5. They're in this tier because Lamar Jackson still exists and could easily take them on a massive run to win the AFC North.
Of these eight teams, the Packers (+1000) and Colts (+1200) have the best odds of winning the Super Bowl, according to BetMGM.
Tier 1: The inner circle
Five of these six teams comprise the top five in Super Bowl odds at FanDuel. (It's the Chiefs, Bills, Eagles, Lions and Rams, in that order.) The sixth is a team that keeps proving that it belongs in this discussion and actually checks in eighth in those odds.
The Bills don't have the best record in the conference or even their own division. However, they do have Josh Allen, and their defense has just put together its best performance of the season, which suggests it may be rounding into shape. They're going to be in the mix down to the end. Are the Chiefs currently 5-4 and technically in position to miss the playoffs? Yep. Do I care in the least bit when it comes to considering them a true contender? I do not. They win the AFC just about every year and they still have Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid. They're a contender until somebody knocks them out.
The Eagles haven't looked like themselves for much of this year, but they seemingly got back on track in their game prior to the bye week. We'll see if that carries over against Green Bay on Monday night, but even if it doesn't, we know the type of ceiling this team has, and it's as high as that of any team in football. We can say the same about the Lions. Especially when they get ahead in a game and get to play their preferred style, they are very tough to beat. They have flaws, but their offense and defense can hit a level that few other teams can reach.
The Rams and Seahawks are very similar. Their quarterbacks are playing extraordinarily efficient football while throwing to one of the best wide receivers in the game. They are committed to running the ball and defenses respect that commitment despite the fact that they haven't been all that good at it so far. And their defenses are playing at an extremely high level, albeit in very different systems.
