Who can beat the Chiefs? Is it finally time for Bills, Ravens or Bengals to end Patrick Mahomes' AFC reign?

Welcome to "NFL Thoughts," a wide-ranging, in-depth look at some of the top storylines of the 2025 season. After looking last week at two AFC teams with breakthrough 2024s -- the Denver Broncos and the Los Angeles Chargers -- we're looking at the three biggest challengers to the Kansas City Chiefs' reign in the AFC. According to FanDuel Sportsbook, the Baltimore Ravens (+350) and Buffalo Bills (+360) actually have shorter odds to win the conference than the Chiefs (+420) do, and the only AFC team to beat Kansas City in the last six postseasons -- the Cincinnati Bengals -- are next (+1100).

One of the greatest testaments to Michael Jordan's greatness, even perhaps in line with his sterling 6-0 NBA Finals record, is the players he prevented from winning rings. John Stockton and Karl Malone in Utah. Charles Barkley in Philadelphia and Phoenix. Patrick Ewing in New York. Reggie Miller in Indianapolis. All Hall of Famers, all turned away.

Patrick Mahomes has not ascended to that level, but with five AFC titles and three Super Bowls in the last six years, there's a similar air of inevitability within his conference. Think of the moments: the 13-second field goal drive to force overtime and then beat Josh Allen's Bills in the 2021 playoffs, the late hit out of bounds he drew to beat Joe Burrow's Bengals in the 2022 playoffs, the deep dagger to beat Lamar Jackson's Ravens in the 2023 playoffs, the fourth-quarter rally to beat Allen's Bills again last season.

They're infuriating, or they're magical, depending on your perspective. You just have to shake your head and laugh sometimes. Mahomes is 6-1 in the postseason against the AFC's other "Big Three" quarterbacks, owning a 15-2 passing touchdown-to-interception ratio in those seven games.

Yes, there have been games he has been outplayed by the opposing signal-caller. There have been games he needed those around him -- especially his defense -- to step up. But it's No. 15 again and again heading to the Super Bowl.

Last year's sequence of events might have been especially frustrating. If this wasn't the Chiefs team, with its decidedly pedestrian offense that ranked among the league's least explosive, to beat, which one will be?

But therein lies the beauty of the NFL. Of all sports, really. There's always next season. And by "next season," we mean the one starting in three weeks.

Buffalo Bills 2025 preview: Are defensive backs, receivers good enough?

One yard.

That's what the Bills can say separated them from breaking the Chiefs' stanglehold on the AFC. Leading 22-21 early in the fourth quarter, Buffalo failed on a fourth-and-1 from the Kansas City 41, Allen's sneak coming up fractions short. He attempted 10 fourth-down sneaks that season, including playoffs; that was the only one he didn't convert. Call it Chiefs Magic, call it an unlucky spot, call it whatever you want. It happened. The Bills can't change it now.

What the Bills can change -- and what they hope they've changed enough -- is the secondary. After all, Mahomes, after slogging (by his standards) through much of the regular season, surviving on dump-offs and quick hitters, produced an absolute gem in the AFC Championship game: 245 yards passing and a touchdown, plus 34 yards and two more scores on the ground.

Moreover, he hit on four passes of 20+ yards. In the regular season, only four quarterbacks -- Gardner Minshew, Caleb Williams, Cooper Rush and Daniel Jones -- produced 20-yard gains at a lower rate.

No one was safe from Mahomes' aerial attack.

• After Christian Benford left with an injury, Mahomes went right after his replacement, Kaiir Elam (3/4, 36 yards allowed and a pass interference as primary defender).
• The long and physical (but not speedy) Rasul Douglas allowed three catches for 60 yards, including a 29-yarder to JuJu Smith-Schuster in which he missed a tackle. Smith-Schuster had five catches of 20+ yards all season; two came in this game alone!
• Matt Milano, who played in just four regular-season games after tearing his bicep, allowed four completions for 59 yards, struggling in play action and in space.
• Damar Hamlin allowed three completions for 29 yards and a touchdown. He also took a bad angle on Smith-Schuster's other big catch-and-run.

Elam, a former first-round pick who never found his footing, was shipped to Dallas for a seventh-round pick. Douglas is still a free agent. Benford is back, as is a healthier Milano and stud slot cornerback Taron Johnson.

Then we get to what Buffalo hopes will be upgrades. At safety, Cole Bishop and Taylor Rapp are the projected starters; Bishop, a 2024 second-round pick, missed significant time last year with a shoulder fracture and has already missed chunks of training camp with a quadriceps injury. Sean McDermott has already said "we're getting short on time" regarding Bishop and Rapp meshing before the season starts.

The Bills desperately need better safety play. Out of the 98 safeties Pro Football Focus graded last year, Hamlin ranked 93rd in coverage, and Rapp was 91st.

There's an even more exciting new face at cornerback: first-round rookie Maxwell Hairston. After blazing to a 4.28-second 40-yard dash, Hairston was expecting to step right into a starting spot. Then he suffered an injury, too. Hairston avoided the worst-case scenario and was off crutches during Buffalo's preseason Week 1 game but is a potential early-season IR candidate. Still, these Bills are playing for January and February, not September and October. If healthy, he brings a pure speed element no other Buffalo defensive back does, a key against speedsters Xavier Worthy and Marquise Brown and YAC star Rashee Rice.

There's also the return of cornerback Tre'Davious White -- we'll see how much he has left -- and the addition of Darrick Forrest, who can provide some thump at safety.

Then there's the other side of the ball. The Bills' biggest offseason contract went out to Josh Palmer (3/$29M), and they also added Elijah Moore to a group that includes holdovers Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman and Curtis Samuel.

Palmer is a nice secondary or tertiary piece. Who the Bills would love to see develop is Coleman, the 6-foot-4, 215-pound former basketball player who showed his ability to go above the rim at times last year.

Coleman is a 50/50 ball winner to his core. He's not a speedster or a route technician -- or at least he wasn't last year. He generated the lowest average yards of separation of any player who got 45+ targets last year, per NFL Next Gen Stats. The problem is he also caught under 51% of his targets last year, failing to win the jump balls he was brought in to win. Don't believe me? Coleman himself called his rookie year "trash" (though I would classify it as a raw prospect going through rookie growing pains).

Coleman has turned heads in training camp, earning praise from Allen.

Of course, if every training camp head turn made players stars, we'd have a lot more stars in the NFL.

Coleman doesn't have to be a star. But he does have to be better than he was in Year 1, someone who can truly add a big, physical, ball-winning aspect to this passing attack. If he can, Palmer slots into that third role role, with Shakir a busy, reliable slot target. James Cook and the tight ends can eat, too. With Allen under center and a plethora of backs and elusive receivers, this is already a well-versed offense. Coleman, who caught just one of four targets for 12 yards against the Chiefs, could be the factor that puts Buffalo over the top.

Josh Allen focused on ending Patrick Mahomes' Jordan-like dominance, getting Bills over hump to Super Bowl

Pete Prisco

Baltimore Ravens 2025 preview: Is this the year one-off mistakes end?

One drop.

That's what the Ravens can say separated them from beating the Bills and setting up a rematch with the Chiefs, the team they largely outplayed but lost to -- funny how that works, huh? -- in a Week 1 thriller. Mark Andrews, a dependable star for the better part of the last decade, dropped a potential game-tying two-point conversion as Baltimore fell to Buffalo 27-25 in the divisional round.

Andrews' drop was the most costly play of the game. His fumble the possession earlier was the second-costliest. Keep in mind, Baltimore outgained Buffalo 416-273. Since 2010, teams are 40-4 in the playoffs when they outgain their opponent by at least 140 yards. Baltimore was one of those four, largely due to Andrews' crucial errors.

Unlike the Bills, who have legitimate questions at a couple of key positions, the Ravens have no roster holes. (No, Bills, fans, this isn't a slight. The Bills can beat anyone, just as the Ravens can.)

Look on paper, and you'll maybe cite a leaky pass defense. But really, Baltimore patched that up halfway through last year by putting superstar Kyle Hamilton in a safety-heavy role after he had moved around during the first part of the season.

Then, this offseason, they added Jaire Alexander and Chidobe Awuzie to a cornerback room that already included Marlon Humphrey and Nate Wiggins. They selected Malaki Starks in the first round to play safety opposite Hamilton, a rock-solid fit who, coincidentally, played a huge role in helping Georgia win a title the first year he was there. Could history repeat itself?

The defensive line remains as stout as ever, with depth and star power. This was arguably the league's best run-stopping team, and it finished second in sacks. Would you like to see more consistent pressure or a true top-tier edge rusher? Sure. But it's still really, really good. Having Roquan Smith behind them doesn't hurt.

The offense was otherworldly. With Derrick Henry in the fold, the Ravens' already strong running game reached unheard-of levels. Baltimore had 24 runs of 25+ yards, most in a single season on record (since 2000). The next-closest team last year was the Buccaneers with ... 13.

Jackson took another massive leap in his second year in Todd Monken's system, becoming a lethal downfield passer. All of the pass catchers return, and DeAndre Hopkins joins as a contested catch winner. Ten of the 11 starters from last year's offense return.

You'll have to forgive me if this is dumbing it down, but I believe it wholeheartedly: This season might come down to whether or not the Ravens can avoid a silly mistake. Seriously.

Consider the last two playoff losses. Last year, it was the Andrews drop and then the Andrews fumble. Two years ago, Zay Flowers got a personal foul after a big catch, one of eight penalties that cost the team 95 yards. Four plays later, he lost a fumble at the goal line. Then Jackson threw an inexplicable, inexcusable interception late.

Over the past two seasons, the Ravens have committed eight turnovers and forced one in the playoffs. And still, they're right there! At some point, this trend has to reverse ... right?

Unless there's a massive drop off from some of the aging players or an injury to Jackson, this has all the makings of a Super Bowl winner. Of course, that has been the case the past two years, too.

Cincinnati Bengals 2025 preview: Can the defense finally figure it out?

One game.

That's what the Bengals can say separated them from a potential playoff run. Zac Taylor even admitted it after a season-ending win over the Steelers.

"They're capable of everything," Taylor said when asked about his team's possible playoff prospects. "They're not going to want us in this tournament. I promise you."

He may have been right. Cincinnati had won five straight. Earlier in the season, they had lost to the Chiefs and the Ravens (twice) by a combined five points.

But a high "How dangerous would this team be in the playoffs?" rating doesn't actually qualify you for the playoffs. Had the Bengals not sleepwalked through a loss to the Patriots to the season, maybe they wouldn't have been on the outside looking in.

The Bengals offense was magnificent. Burrow played at an MVP level. Ja'Marr Chase won the receiving Triple Crown. Chase Brown emerged as efficient, versatile and reliable. The offensive line still had too many breakdowns, but Burrow mostly covered them. The Bengals were sixth in success rate and expected points added per play offensively.

But the defense ranked 26th in success rate and compounded those shortcomings with the league's third-worst red zone defense. Teams that struggle down to down need to have overwhelmingly strong turnover totals or an ability to limit damage by forcing field goals. The Bengals had neither.

In comes Al Golden, the former Notre Dame defensive coordinator now taking his first NFL coordinating job. Golden has received props for his player development in college, and he'll inherit a defense that needs some young player development.

As I highlighted in my 50 under-the-radar players 50 days before the NFL season, cornerbacks Daxton Hill and DJ Turner II fit the bill. Both suffered season-ending injuries last year, but the former Michigan standouts showed strong improvement year over year. Hill, a 2022 first-rounder, and Turner, a 2023 second-rounder, saw their PFF grades jump significantly. Hill, who had the larger sample size, allowed just 5.6 yards per attempt as the primary defender after allowing 9.4 as a rookie.

There's also speedy corner Cam Taylor-Britt and safety Geno Stone, who figures to be a solid bounce-back candidate after a tough debut season in Cincinnati.

The Trey Hendrickson saga still overshadows pretty much everything, though. He led the NFL in sacks last year. When he was on the field last year, Cincinnati had a 34.2% pressure rate, relatively league-average. When he wasn't, the team had a 21.2% pressure rate, which would have been the worst on record (since 2017). For a team that should be trying to win big right now, his continued absence is frustrating for the neutral observer.

The Bengals have played Burrow and others this preseason in hopes of avoiding the slow starts of seasons past. Burrow being healthy helps a lot in that endeavor, too, and he gives you a chance any given Sunday. But Cincinnati's defense is going through an awful lot right now, perhaps too much to help them crack the top tier of AFC contenders.

Other AFC challengers: Is there anyone else?

One more team?

Two of the Chiefs, Bills, Ravens and Bengals have combined to play in every AFC Championship game since COVID-19. If Mahomes feels inevitable, this foursome being right there feels pretty inevitable, too.

The Broncos (+1200) seem the best bet to break up that party if you want to look outside the "Big Four." Personally, I'm not quite sure I'm there with Bo Nix yet. We've also discussed the Texans (+1200), who have a fearsome defense and an emerging star in C.J. Stroud. But the offensive line is the great unknown there.

For now, one of Kansas City, Buffalo or Baltimore seems a very strong bet to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl once again. Whether it can be someone other than Kansas City remains to be seen.