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USATSI

Folks, we may be entering some dangerous waters within these betting seas. Over the last few weeks, favorites have truly dominated, including in Week 8, when they went an eye-popping 11-2 ATS -- the best cover rate (84.6%) since Week 16 in 1985. Not only that, but they were mostly blowouts, with nine games decided by 18 points or more, tying the most in NFL history.

With that in mind, the Week 9 slate opened with nine home underdogs, which should raise the antennas of any good bettor. The scales will even out at some point, so it's best to keep your head on a swivel. That's, in part, why I'm backing six underdogs overall, including two home dogs within my five locks of the week that win outright.

Teams with bye weeks in Week 9: Cleveland, New York (Jets), Philadelphia, and Tampa Bay.

NFL odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Bet NFL at FanDuel and get $300 in bonus bets with a winning $5 wager.

2025 record

Locks of the Week ATS: 20-20-0
ATS: 54-67-0
ML: 74-46-1

Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys

  • Monday, 8:15 p.m. (ESPN/ABC | Fubo, try for free)

Kyler Murray is slated to return this week after missing time with a foot injury, and the Cardinals quarterback has a tasty matchup against arguably the worst defense in the NFL. The Cowboys are allowing opposing quarterbacks to post a 112.0 passer rating this season -- worst in the league. That should set up Murray for a roaring return, with Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride likely able to get open early and often.

On the flip side, Arizona's defense is solid. The Cardinals rank top 10 in opponent passer rating, and if they can dilute Dak Prescott and Co. even a touch, it could tip the scales in their favor.

Meanwhile, Murray -- a Texas native -- is 9-0 at AT&T Stadium across his football life, dating back to high school, so he's no stranger to Arlington. And he's been profitable in this spot: Murray owns a 22-6-2 ATS record as a road underdog in his career.

Projected score: Cardinals 30, Cowboys 27
The pick: Cardinals +2.5

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions

  • Sunday, 1 p.m. (Fox | Fubo, try for free)

I'll believe it when I see it with J.J. McCarthy, who is slated to make his return this week for Minnesota. This only comes after Carson Wentz was placed on injured reserve, and I'm not totally convinced Kevin O'Connell is thrilled about putting his young quarterback out there, but he's been painted into a corner. Outside of a fourth-quarter run against the Bears in Week 1, McCarthy has seven quarters of bad football on his short résumé. That includes a Week 2 performance where he couldn't lead the Vikings to double-digit points as he tossed two interceptions and fumbled three times (one lost).

And he's supposed to now come back aboard and go toe-to-toe with a Lions team entering Week 9 on a four-game home winning streak -- each by at least 15 points? Detroit is also averaging 36.7 points per game at Ford Field in 2025. On top of that, the Lions are 4-0 ATS as a favorite this season, and I expect that streak to continue here.

Projected score: Lions 33, Vikings 21
The pick: Lions -8.5

Agent's Take: Did the Vikings miscalculate their quarterback decisions by going all in on J.J. McCarthy?
Joel Corry
Agent's Take: Did the Vikings miscalculate their quarterback decisions by going all in on J.J. McCarthy?

Jacksonville Jaguars at Las Vegas Raiders

  • Sunday, 4:05 p.m. (Fox | Fubo, try for free)

There's something I don't quite trust about the Jaguars, despite coming out of the bye with a 4-3 record and in the hunt in the AFC playoff picture. A chunk of that skepticism centers around Trevor Lawrence, who has yet to impress me as a passer in 2025. Currently, Lawrence has an 80.6 passer rating, which would be the lowest since his rookie season. The offensive line also hasn't done him many favors, contributing to his 20 sacks on the season. With Maxx Crosby ready to wreak havoc off the edge, the Raiders have a path to pulling off the home upset. 

Geno Smith hasn't been good in 2025, but he's also been playing somewhat with one hand tied behind his back with tight end Brock Bowers limited since Week 1 with a knee injury. Bowers, along with wideout Jakobi Meyers, are expected to be back this week, which should give the Raiders' passing attack some juice, particularly against a Jags defense that is surrendering 245.7 passing yards per game (27th in the NFL).   

Projected score: Raiders 23, Jaguars 20
The pick: Raiders +3

Seattle Seahawks at Washington Commanders

  • Sunday, 8:20 p.m. (NBC | Fubo, try for free)

Jayden Daniels is another star in line to return this week, which should boost the spirits of a Commanders team that is 3-5 on the year. Is it enough to boost them to victory? I have my doubts, especially against an underrated Seahawks club. Seattle is top 10 in the NFL in points scored (27.6) and points allowed (19.4) per game this season, and also ranks third in yards per play (6.0) and yards per play allowed (4.7). 

This could be another game where Washington's defense is exposed. In the past three contests, the Commanders are giving up a league-high 32.3 points per game, and opposing quarterbacks are averaging a 111.2 passer rating over that stretch. The duo of Sam Darnold and Jaxon Smith-Njigba could go off in prime time. While laying points on the road is already a risky endeavor, Seattle is 3-0 straight up and ATS on the road this year. 

Projected score: Seahawks 30, Commanders 24
The pick: Seahawks -3.5

Denver Broncos at Houston Texans

  • Sunday, 1 p.m. (Fox | Fubo, try for free)

How much of Houston's resurgence was the Texans finally flipping a switch, and how much was it injuries finally catching up to the San Francisco 49ers? I think we'll find out this weekend, and I expect it to be more of the latter. The notable nugget out of last week's dominating win by Houston was that C.J. Stroud went through the contest unscathed with zero sacks. It's hard to imagine that happening again; I assume the third-year quarterback will be back under siege, particularly against the Broncos. Denver leads the NFL with 36 sacks on the season, which is 10 more than any other team. 

On top of getting after the quarterback, this defense should exploit a key weakness of the Texans' offense: red zone efficiency. Houston is scoring touchdowns on just 42.1% of its red zone trips, which is second-lowest in the league. Now, they face a Denver red zone defense allowing touchdowns on just 40% of opponents' trips, which is tied for the best in the NFL. This could be a little more lopsided than the minuscule spread suggests. 

Projected score: Broncos 24, Texans 20
The pick: Broncos +1.5

Rest of the bunch

Ravens at Dolphins (Thursday)
Projected score: Ravens 33, Dolphins 20
The pick: Ravens -7.5

Bears at Bengals
Projected score: Bengals 27, Bears 24
The pick: Bengals +3

Panthers at Packers
Projected score: Packers 30, Panthers 17
The pick: Packers -12.5

Chargers at Titans
Projected score: Chargers 28, Titans 14
The pick: Chargers -10

Falcons at Patriots
Projected score: Patriots 27, Falcons 20
The pick: Patriots -5.5

49ers at Giants
Projected score: 49ers 24, Giants 17
The pick: 49ers -2.5

Colts at Steelers
Projected score: Colts 30, Steelers 21
The pick: Colts -3

Saints at Rams
Projected score: Rams 27, Saints 17
The pick: Saints +13.5 

Chiefs at Bills
Projected score: Bills 28, Chiefs 24
The pick: Bills +1.5