NFL Week 14 lookahead lines: Early best bets worth considering before Week 13

We're coming to you early this week with three Thursday games on the Thanksgiving slate and another Friday, and we want to capture how the sportsbooks are treating each Week 14 matchup before any Week 13 football is in the books. What value is there to be had by locking in early best bets before settling in for Thanksgiving dinner?

Last week, we picked up nice value backing the Cowboys early in their Thanksgiving matchup with the Chiefs, getting the home team catching 4.5 points. We also caught the Colts at -3.5 before the line added a point, while our Black Friday pick of the Bears has stayed steady despite the Eagles' loss last week.

What can we predict this week? Let's take a look at the consensus Week 14 lookahead lines and then share our best bets to lock in early.

Week 14 lookahead lines

Cowboys at Lions (-6), 54.5
Colts (-3) at Jaguars, 48.5
Bengals at Bills (-7), 53.5
Dolphins (-3) at Jets, 41.5
Saints at Buccaneers (-8.5), 43
Steelers at Ravens (-6.5), 47.5
Titans at Browns (-3.5), 34.5
Seahawks (-7.5) at Falcons, 43.5
Commanders at Vikings (-2.5), 43.5
Broncos (-8) at Raiders, 39.5
Bears at Packers (-6.5), 46.5
Rams (-8.5) at Cardinals, 47.5
Texans at Chiefs (-5.5), 42.5
Eagles (-2.5) at Chargers, 43.5

Week 14 lookahead picks

Commanders at Vikings

This is available at Commanders +2.5 at some spots, and I just don't get it. There's a chance Jayden Daniels returns for this game, and if that happens, Washington might need to be favored by three points. Even if he doesn't, I'll take my chances on Marcus Mariota against the Vikings' defense rather than expect the Vikings to have offensive success against anybody at this point, even the Commanders. We'll probably be catching points against J.J. McCarthy in this matchup, and I like having the 'dog there even if my current ratings put this game on the other side of 3. If Minnesota's QB situation doesn't improve this week, I anticipate moving them down below the Browns, which would make my ratings spread on this game around pick 'em with Mariota at QB.

Eagles at Chargers

We've faded the Eagles in our last few lookahead columns, but now it's time to back them in a matchup they should dominate. The Chargers have major issues at offensive tackle, and teams with good edge rushers should be able to exploit those mismatches and shut down the Los Angeles offense. I expect we'll see that to some extent against the Raiders this week, and if the Chargers do anything but blow out Vegas, this line needs to get to -3.

Colts at Jaguars

My ratings line for this game is Colts -3.5, but I've been higher on the Colts and lower on the Jaguars than the market in recent weeks, so from a perspective of how this line is likely to shift, I don't see it rising from 3 unless Jacksonville has a terrible game on the road against the Titans. If they come away with the win, they'll be a game back of the Colts at worst, and Indy has the higher potential for a dud going against a strong Texans defense. I'm probably going to be on the Colts next week in this matchup, but in terms of line value it's worth taking Jaguars +3 now and then hoping we can play Colts at -2 or lower.

Other notes: The lookahead total for Titans-Browns is only 34.5, so even though I wanted to back the Browns as 3.5-point favorites in that matchup, it's nearly impossible to do it with a total so low. ... The Buccaneers being 8.5-point favorites against the Saints must be assuming Baker Mayfield will be back to full strength, as that's probably where I would project the spread to be if I was fully confident in him playing without limitations. The Saints are probably a value play at +8.5 as a result, but I find myself unable to trust them after getting burned with them last week ... The Chiefs are 5.5-point favorites at home against the Texans, and I'm almost sure that line is off one way or another. I tend to think it should be higher because I'm buying back in on Kansas City after what we saw in the Colts game, but if they struggle Thursday against the Cowboys and the Texans give the Colts a competitive game, this may crash down near Chiefs -4.