NFL Week 13 betting power ratings: Rams No. 1 as top tiers separate, plus how all 32 teams stack up
Here's how we're setting the spreads for every Week 13 matchup in the NFL
We talked last week about the group of 10 teams at the top of our betting power ratings who had a claim to be No. 1, with all either unproven or flawed on some level and not much distance between No. 1 and No. 10. We may finally be getting some answers, especially with that top spot after a dominant performance by the Rams.
My previous hesitancy with the Rams was a defense that had looked great in some plus matchups but struggled to slow down certain offenses while seeming to rely too much on bad decisions by opposing quarterbacks to create turnovers (the Bears have faced similar skepticism during their winning streak). I was wrong, or at least, those questions have been put to bed after a dominant performance against a good Buccaneers offense.
After 12 weeks, the Rams have the MVP favorite on offense and the No. 1 scoring defense. That's enough to forego my usual slow adjustment period and move their rating up two points to be bar none on a tier by themselves.
The Patriots are 10th out of 10 when it comes to the clear top teams in the league even though they're the only team with 10 wins. That's because we're not building our ratings in a way to assess performance over the course of the season, but rather where teams are right now, and I'm concerned the Patriots' offense is going to take a step back due to injuries up front. We only have to look to last year to see how ineffective Drake Maye could be when protection was an issue, and his spotty accuracy on Sunday could be a cause for alarm. I'm interested to see how that O-line holds up against the Giants front that can get after the quarterback, and that matchup has me thinking the spread for the game is too high.
I'll have several more spread picks this week at SportsLine, where members are able to get access to all my picks throughout the week as they're made and hopefully take advantage of some good line value.
Let's dive into our betting power ratings and highlight a few more teams of note.
Week 13 power ratings
| Team | 13 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAR | 7.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5 | 4.5 |
| KC | 6.5 | 5.5 | 7 | 7 | 7.5 |
| SEA | 6 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5 | 4.5 |
| IND | 5 | 6 | 5.5 | 5 | 5 |
| DET | 5 | 5.5 | 6 | 5.5 | 6 |
| BUF | 4.5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 4.5 |
| PHI | 4.5 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 5 | 4.5 |
| BAL | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| GB | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
| NE | 3.5 | 4 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| DEN | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| SF | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | -1 |
| HOU | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| CHI | 1 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1.5 |
| DAL | 1 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| LAC | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1.5 | 2 |
| JAC | 0 | -1 | -2 | -1.5 | -1 |
| PIT | -1.5 | -1.5 | -1 | 0 | 0 |
| CIN | -1.5 | -5.5 | -5 | -5 | -4.5 |
| NYG | -2.5 | -3 | -3.5 | -3.5 | -3.5 |
| MIN | -3 | -2 | 0 | -1 | -1.5 |
| ARI | -3 | -2.5 | -2 | -1 | -1 |
| ATL | -3 | -5 | -1 | 0 | -1 |
| TB | -3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| MIA | -4 | -4 | -4.5 | -5 | -4.5 |
| CAR | -4.5 | -3.5 | -4 | -3.5 | -4.5 |
| WAS | -5.5 | -5.5 | -5.5 | -3.5 | -1 |
| CLE | -5.5 | -5.5 | -5.5 | -5.5 | -5.5 |
| LV | -6 | -5.5 | -4 | -3.5 | -3.5 |
| NO | -6.5 | -5.5 | -5.5 | -6.5 | -5.5 |
| NYJ | -7.5 | -9 | -7.5 | -6.5 | -6 |
| TEN | -8.5 | -9 | -8 | -8 | -8 |
One week after appearing to have serious issues against a mediocre Broncos team, the Chiefs looked like world-beaters once again in a dominant performance against an elite Colts offense. Even though it took overtime to get the win, the Chiefs had the edge in first downs 33-10 and would've turned in a blowout victory if not for a fluke Patrick Mahomes interception that set the Colts up for a free touchdown early, and then the Chiefs' offense repeatedly stalled in the red zone (1 of 6 touchdown rate) and goal to go (0 for 3). The other AFC contenders need to find a way to keep the Chiefs out of the playoffs, as even at 6-5 they look like the most dangerous team in the conference.
I have the Seahawks as the clear No. 3 team even though they didn't come close to covering in what was a bit of a fluky outcome once again, with the Titans securing a punt return TD but still sitting in a 30-10 hole late in the third quarter before tacking on two TDs. I had to dock the Lions after their struggles to put away the Giants in what's typically a great spot for the team coming off a loss, but we know at their best they could be up there with the Chiefs.
Getting out of the top tier, I'm starting to believe in the Bears and Cowboys as above-average teams who could give most squads trouble in any given week, and that's going to be put to the test during the holiday season with Dallas hosting the Chiefs and Chicago hosting the Eagles. As long as they don't completely flop, I'll probably keep them at a +1 heading into the following week, and I'd expect either to play an even game against the Texans or the 49ers, who are barely in that +1 tier for me with Brock Purdy looking ineffective against the Panthers. San Francisco might be the team with the widest range of ratings that could be defensible at this moment.
I'm moving the Bengals up four points with the return of Joe Burrow, which isn't all the way back to where I would put them with a healthy Burrow. If he does look healthy after the long layoff and if the Bengals get Tee Higgins and Trey Hendrickson back after Thanksgiving, there will be an argument to put the Bengals at dead even with the opportunity to get back into above-average territory where they were before the Burrow injury.
My Buccaneers rating is accounting for Baker Mayfield missing this week after he was knocked out of last week's action with a shoulder injury that had him deemed doubtful to return rather than questionable. With the short week and reading into the severity of the injury on the day, I don't think they can risk throwing him out there, and I'm not confident in the offense without him, even if Bucky Irving returns. Teddy Bridgewater is a fine backup QB, but he doesn't have anywhere near the upside of Mayfield when healthy, so I think it's fair to place the Bucs alongside teams like the Cardinals, Falcons and Vikings.
Full Week 13 projected lines
| Away | Home | Lookahead | Consensus | PR Spread | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB | DET | -3 | -2.5 | -2.5 | |
| KC | DAL | +4.5 | +3 | +4.5 | Market not crediting big KC win? |
| CIN | BAL | -7.5 | -7 | -7 | Burrow return makes it tough to gauge |
| CHI | PHI | -7 | -7 | -5 | |
| ATL | NYJ | +1.5 | +2.5 | +2.5 | |
| ARI | TB | -6.5 | -3 | -1 | 3 makes sense if Baker plays hurt |
| HOU | IND | -4.5 | -4.5 | -5.5 | |
| NO | MIA | -4.5 | -6 | -5.5 | |
| LAR | CAR | +9.5 | +10.5 | +9.5 | |
| SF | CLE | +6.5 | +5.5 | +4 | CLE D will dictate flow of game |
| JAC | TEN | +7 | +6.5 | +6.5 | Ward improving week by week |
| MIN | SEA | -7.5 | -10.5 | -10 | Could Brosmer be an improvement? |
| BUF | PIT | +4.5 | +3.5 | +4.5 | |
| LV | LAC | -8.5 | -9.5 | -7 | |
| DEN | WAS | +6.5 | +6.5 | +6 | |
| NYG | NE | -7.5 | -7.5 | -7 |
This is how I would set each game based on my power ratings and home-field advantage data for this week. A large discrepancy between the projected power rating lines and the market lines does not make the game an auto play, but it gives us a basis for potential strong picks pending further analysis.
