NFL Week 12 overreactions, plus grading Cowboys' shocking win and Panthers-49ers predictions for Monday

Welcome to the Monday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!

It is officially Thanksgiving week, but I can't even start to think about all the turkey I'm going to eat just yet and that's because we still have one more game to play in Week 12 and it's a monstrous one: Panthers at 49ers. 

It doesn't seem possible that the Panthers are involved in a big game this late in the season, but I assure you, that is the case. If the Panthers win tonight, they'll take over first place in the NFC South heading into Week 13. I repeat, the Carolina Panthers could be alone in first place if they somehow pull off the upset. 

There were a total of three overtime games on Sunday and if tonight's game is just half as crazy as what we saw yesterday, then we should be in for a fun night. Anyway, we'll be previewing tonight's game in today's newsletter, plus we'll be breaking down everything that happened Sunday. 

As always, here's your reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here. Let's get to the rundown. 

1. NFL Week 12 grades: Chiefs and Cowboys earn impressive wins

Welcome to my favorite part of the Monday newsletter, which is where I hand out grades for all 32 teams. Actually, this week, I didn't grade all 32 teams because there were FOUR teams on a bye, and then we have two teams playing tonight, so you're only getting 26 grades.     

Anyway, here are the grades from three notable games that were played Sunday:

Chiefs 23-20 (OT) over Colts (full recap)

• Colts takeaway: The Colts had Kansas City on the ropes, but they couldn't deliver a knockout punch. After moving up and down the field for three straight quarters, the Colts' offense disappeared in the fourth quarter and overtime, totaling just 18 yards in the two periods. The Colts certainly had some questionable play calling in the fourth quarter. With Indy leading 20-9, it would have made sense to give the ball to Jonathan Taylor, but he only got ONE carry during a fourth quarter where Daniel Jones threw the ball eight times. Of those eight passes, six of them fell incomplete, which stopped the clock six times. Shane Steichen has been on fire with his play calling for most of the year, but he certainly made some head-scratching decisions in the final quarter. The Colts (8-3) are still in a good spot, but with the third most difficult remaining strength of schedule, they don't necessarily feel like a lock to win the AFC South anymore. Grade: B
• Chiefs takeaway: The Chiefs essentially needed this win to save their season and they got the victory by taking over in the second half. With the Chiefs trailing 20-9 in the fourth quarter, the defense took over by surrendering just 11 yards in the final quarter to allow Patrick Mahomes and the offense to get back in the game. Mahomes responded by totaling 145 yards in the fourth quarter that allowed the Chiefs to tie the game (He threw for 352 in the game). The Chiefs haven't been clutch at all this year, but that changed on Sunday and it came against one of the best teams in the NFL. For the first time all season, they won a one-score game, and knowing the Chiefs (6-5), this could be the win that sends them on a run deep into January and possibly even February. Grade: A-

Cowboys 24-21 over Eagles

• Eagles takeaway: This was an all-time meltdown by an Eagles team that blew a 21-0 lead. The lead disappeared because the Eagles couldn't get anything going in the second half. The Philly offense had the ball six times in the second half and those possessions ended with four punts, a lost fumble and a missed field goal. They also muffed a punt that ended up being recovered by the Cowboys. There probably won't be any A.J. Brown drama for the Eagles this week after he topped 100 yards for just the second time since Week 4, but nothing else was working for Philly. The Eagles struggled to move the ball against a Cowboys defense that was one of the worst in the NFL heading into Week 12, which could be a sign of bigger problems for Philly (8-3). This is definitely a playoff team, but if the Eagles don't get their offense on track, their playoff run might not last long. Grade: B-
• Cowboys takeaway: This was a miracle win for a team that almost gave the game away with two turnovers, a punt and a fourth-down failure on their first four possessions. By the time the Cowboys realized there was a game going on, they were already trailing 21-0. After a rocky first half, though, the Cowboys absolutely took over in the second. On offense, that started with George Pickens, who totaled 146 yards receiving, including 67 in the fourth quarter. Dak Prescott bounced back from an early interception to throw for 354 yards and two touchdowns. The defense, which has struggled for most of the season, shut down Saquon Barkley, holding him to just 22 yards. Since adding Quinnen Williams at the trade deadline, the defense has surrendered just 90 yards rushing in two games. The Cowboys (5-5-1) are certainly a long shot to make the playoffs, but this team is playing its best football of the season and with a suddenly transformed defense, Dallas certainly feels like a dark horse to reach the postseason. Grade: B+

Bears 31-28 over Steelers (full recap)

• Steelers takeaway: With Aaron Rodgers out due to an injury, the Steelers put this game in the hands of Mason Rudolph, who then handed the game to the Bears. Rudolph turned the ball over twice -- with one in each half -- and the Bears turned those mistakes into 14 points. The Steelers had the ball twice in the fourth quarter with a chance to tie the game or take the lead, but they came up empty both times. They offense also got stopped cold on two different fourth down conversions. Whenever the Steelers needed a clutch play from their offense, they didn't get it. The Steelers (6-5) just don't have any offensive firepower and it feels like that's going to end up costing them a chance of winning the division. Grade: C-
• Bears takeaway: They weren't quite the 1985 Bears, but Chicago's defense put this team in a position to win. Not only did they force two turnovers, but they also made two huge fourth down stops. Offensively, Caleb Williams had an inexcusable fumble that led to a Steelers touchdown, but he made up for that by throwing three TD passes. Ben Johnson was probably thrilled to see Williams complete at least one pass to eight different receivers, which kept the Steelers guessing. They never knew where the ball was going to go. Williams wasn't anywhere close to perfect, but he got the job done and that's been the story of Chicago's season so far. The Bears (8-3) don't always look great, but they're coming away with wins, and that's all that matters. Grade: B+

As for the other 20 grades we handed out in Week 12, you can check those out by clicking here. 

2. NFL Week 12 winners and losers: JSN and Jahmyr Gibbs are taking over the NFL

You can't have a week of NFL action without having winners and losers, so we have some winners and losers. Cody Benjamin came up with this week's list, and his list of winners is topped by two players who were absolutely unstoppable on Sunday.  

WINNERS

• Jaxson Smith-Njigba. The best way for Sam Darnold to make fans forget about his turnover spree the last time the Seattle Seahawks took the field? Just keep feeding "JSN." The club's top wideout set a single-season franchise record for receiving yards by clearing 165 yards against the Tennessee Titans on Sunday, also reaching the end zone twice. The man has simply been uncoverable all year. It wouldn't be crazy to crown him Offensive Player of the Year.
• Jahmyr Gibbs. We just have to highlight the man who powered the Lions' comeback win over New York, because the electricity with which he moved was unmatched across Sunday's games. Gibbs has been a highlight reel all year, but he was extra special racing past the Giants' secondary late in Week 12's contest, finishing with 264 scrimmage yards and three scores. Even if Jared Goff isn't dealing with elite stuff, Gibbs is capable of carrying Motown's attack.
• Mike Kafka. The Giants didn't beat the Lions on Sunday. The fact they came close at all is a minor miracle ... and a testament to Kafka squeezing maximum results from a cast of mostly replacement characters, none more notable than Jameis Winston and Wan'Dale Robinson, the latter of whom racked up 156 receiving yards to help push the Lions to overtime. Kafka, who replaced Brian Daboll atop New York's staff in Week 11, is faring well with the interim tag.

If you want to see the rest of Cody's winners along with his full list of losers, be sure to click here. 

3. Overreactions from Week 12: Are the Steelers collapsing? Should Shedeur keep the starting QB job?

Everyone on the internet loves to overreact to things, and that's especially true when we're talking about the the NFL. With that in mind, Tyler Sullivan decided to take a look at several things that happened in Week 12 to decide if we're all overreacting. 

Statement: Steelers are going to collapse. 
Overreaction or reality: Reality. The Steelers are in real danger of falling out of the playoff race entirely, not just the AFC North. Pittsburgh has now lost four of its last six games and sit at 6-5 on the season. After Baltimore defeated the Jets in Week 12, it's the Ravens who now stand as the AFC North leader thanks to their superior division record. That lead could build even further when these two teams face one another twice down the stretch. As the AFC North lead has been whittled down to nothing, the Steelers now have to be cautious about the wild card race. They are now fighting with the Jaguars, Texans and Chiefs for the final wild card spot.  

Statement: Giants should hire Mike Kafka as head coach. 
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction. The Giants piled up 517 yards in a loss to the Lions and had some nifty trick plays sprinkled throughout the matchup, which shined a positive light on interim coach Mike Kafka. In his two games since being elevated from OC to interim coach following the firing of Brian Daboll, Kafka's Giants played both the Packers and Lions tight. While that's a credit to him getting the most out of this roster, the Mara family shouldn't be rushing to take the interim tag off of him at this juncture. If New York continues to put up a fight down the stretch, that should enhance Kafka's candidacy for the permanent job, but the organization should still go through the hiring process and see what its options are.

Statement: Shedeur Sanders should keep the Browns' starting QB job. 
Overreaction or reality: Reality. Even if Dillon Gabriel clears concussion protocol, I don't see how Kevin Stefanski can put Shedeur Sanders on the bench at this point. While the Raiders are hardly the toughest opponent to face, the Browns rookie quarterback played well, completing 11 of his 20 passes for 209 yards, a touchdown, and an interception. That's good enough to warrant a second start, and possibly keep the job for the rest of the season.

There are plenty more overreactions, and if you want to check those out, be sure to click here. 

4. Crazy stats from Week 12: Shedeur Sanders ends 30-year drought for Browns

Every Sunday night, I get an email from our research department here at CBS Sports, and every Sunday, that email always includes some wild stats about the games that were just played. 

With that in mind, here are 14 crazy stats from Week 12: 

1. Shedeur Sanders ends QB drought. With the Browns' win over the Raiders, Shedeur Sanders became the first Cleveland QB in 30 years to win his first start with the team. Before Sanders came along, the last QB to pull off the feat for the Browns was Eric Zeier, who did it in 1995 with Bill Belichick has his coach. 
2. The Myles Garret sack attack is here. Myles Garrett had three sacks against the Raiders, which means he now has 13 over his past four games. That's the highest total ever in any four-game span since the NFL started tracking sacks in 1982. Garrett now has 18 on the season and just needs five more over Cleveland's final six games to break the all-time single-season sack record of 22.5. 
3. Matthew Stafford on unprecedented hot streak. The Rams QB threw THREE TD passes on Sunday night against the Buccaneers and now has 27 straight TD passes without throwing an interception. That's the longest streak in NFL history, moving him past Tom Brady. 
4. Eagles blow a big lead. The Eagles blew a 21-point lead in a loss to the Cowboys, which is mostly notable, because it's tied for the largest blown lead by a defending Super Bowl champion in NFL history, tying the 2002 Buccaneers, who blew a 21-point lead in 2003. On the Cowboys' end, they tied the largest comeback in franchise history. 
5. Patrick Mahomes is the master of overtime. The Chiefs quarterback has a 7-0 record in his career in regular-season overtime games, which is the best record by any QB in NFL history. Mahomes also made some personal history by leading the Chiefs back from an 11-point deficit in the fourth quarter, which was the largest fourth-quarter comeback of his career. 
6. Giants make unfortunate history. The Giants led the Lions by 10 points before losing 34-27 in overtime. With the loss, the Giants became the first team in NFL history to lead by double digits in FIVE different road games and lose them all during a single season. They're also the first team in NFL history to score 20 points or more in six straight games AND lose them all. 
7. JSN goes off. With 167 yards against the Titans, Jaxson Smith-Njigba now has 1,313 for the season, which is a new franchise record for the Seahawks. That's right, JSN broke the record for receiving yards in a SEASON with six games left to play.
8. Bad news Bears are somehow winning. The Bears are 8-3, but they have have a negative point differential this season, marking just the third time in NFL history that a team has won at least eight of its first 11 games with a negative point differential. The Bears join the 1987 Chargers and 2020 Browns. 
9. Jaguars end 51-game losing streak by NFL teams. The Jaguars beat the Cardinals despite turning the ball over four times. That makes the Jags the first team to win a game with -4 or worse turnover margin since the 2020 Raiders. Since that game, NFL teams had gone 0-51 with a turnover margin of -4 or worse. 
10. Dak Prescott owns the NFC East at home. The Cowboys QB, who threw for 354 yards against the Eagles, has now won 19 straight divisional home games. That's the second longest streak in NFL history, trailing only Tom Brady, who won 20 straight divisional homes games between 2007 and 2014.  
11. NFL goes overtime. There were three overtime games on Sunday, marking the first time since Week 18 of the 2021 season that we got three overtime games on one day. The NFL record for most overtime games in a single week is four -- Week 7 in 2002, Week 12 in 2005 -- and we could see that record get tied if the 49ers and Panthers go to OT tonight. 
12. Jahmyr Gibbs joins exclusive club. The Lions running back totaled 219 yards and two touchdowns on the ground while also tacking on 11 catches for 45 yards and another TD. With those numbers, Gibbs joined LaDainian Tomlinson as the only running backs ever with at least 10 receptions, 250 scrimmage yards and three touchdowns in a game and 10 receptions and 200 yards rushing in a game. 
13. Mike Vrable might be the Coach of the Year. With the Patriots sitting at 10-2, the makes Vrabel the first coach in NFL history to inherit a team that lost 13 games or more in the prior season and lead that team to at least 10 wins in his first year. 
14. Jameis Winston's big touchdown. Not only did Winston throw for 366 yards and two touchdowns against the Lions, be also caught a 33-yard TD pass, which which was the third-longest TD catch by any quarterback in the Super Bowl era. The only longer catches came from Tennessee's Marcus Mariota (41 yards in 2015) and Kansas City's Tyler Thigpen (37 yards in 2008). 

If you see any other fun facts, feel free to tweet them at me. 

5. Monday night preview: Picks and best bets for Panthers at 49ers

The Panthers (6-5) are an underdog going into tonight's game, but you might not want to bet against them, because there's been no better underdog in the NFL this year. The Panthers have won six games as an underdog, which is tied for the most by any team through 11 games since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970. 

Basically, we probably shouldn't count the Panthers out even though they'll be facing a 49ers team that's favored by 7.5 points. 

Here's one reason why each team should be feeling confident going into the game:

• Why the Panthers can win: This is a team that can run the ball on you and if they can run the ball on you, they can win. The Panthers are 4-1 this year when they rush for 125 yards or more and although the 49ers have been decent against the run, they're 0-3 when they surrender 125 yards or more on the ground, so 125 certainly feels like the magic number (The 49ers are 7-1 when they hold teams below 125 yards). This could set the stage for Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard to carry the Panthers to a win. 
• Why the 49ers can win: Since being traded to the 49ers in 2022, Christian McCaffrey hasn't gotten a chance to play his former team, so this will be his first shot at revenge. McCaffrey will likely be looking to make a statement, so the 49ers would be smart to get him involved early and often. The 49ers are 5-0 this season when McCaffrey gets at least 25 touches, which make sense, because if you put the ball in the hands of your best playmaker, good things usually happen. If McCaffrey gets hot, the 49ers offense will be hard to stop, which will make San Francisco almost impossible to beat. 

You can get a full preview of the game from Jared Dubin by clicking here. 

If you're thinking about betting on the game, here are a couple of props (via BetMGM). 

• ONE RECEIVING PROP I LIKE: George Kittle OVER 58.5 yards receiving (-110): Kittle has gone over this number in his past two games, including last week, when he finished with six catches for 67 yards and two touchdowns in Brock Purdy's return to the starting lineup. The Panthers are surrendering more than 65 yards receiving per game to opposing tight ends, so this certainly sets up a scenario where Kittle could have a big game. 
  
• ONE KICKING PROP I LIKE TONIGHT: Matt Gay OVER 7.5 points (-120): Gay will be taking over the kicking duties for an injured Eddy Piniero and although the 49ers will have a new kicker tonight, I don't think they'll be shy about using him. Before getting injured, Pineiro hit two field goals in eight of the 10 games he played in and I think we'll see Gay do the same thing tonight. 

If you're wondering how my props are doing this year, I'm 25-25 (10-13 on kicker props and 15-12 on all other props)

And now, it's time for some picks. 

PICKS FOR 'MNF'

My pick: 49ers 31-20 over Panthers
Dubin's pick: 49ers 27-16 over Panthers
Prisco's pick: 49ers 32-23 over Panthers

Over on our CBSSports.com picks page, all eight of us are taking the 49ers to win and seven of us are taking San Francisco to cover as a 7-point favorite. 

6. Extra points: Raiders and Giants both fire a coordinator

It was a busy weekend in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you. 

• Raiders dump Chip Kelly. The Raiders offensive coordinator is out after a Sunday performance that saw Geno Smith get sacked 10 times. Pete Carroll had never fired a coordinator during the middle of the season, but now, he's done it twice in less than three weeks. The Raiders fired special teams coordinator Tom McMahon back on Nov. 7. As for Kelly, you can read more about his firing here. 
• Giants fire defensive coordinator Shane Bowen. Mike Kafka has made his first big move as the interim coach of the Giants: He has fired Shane Bowen. Kafka decided to make the move after watching the Giants give up 494 yards of offense in a 34-27 overtime loss to the Lions. The Giants have given up the most rushing yards per game (157.2), the third-most total yards per game (385.0) and the third-most points per game this season (27.8). Outside linebackers coach Charlie Bullen will be taking over as the defensive coordinator. We've got more on Bowen's firing here. 
• Brandon Aiyuk likely done in San Francisco. There seems to be some bad blood between Aiyuk and the 49ers and it's gotten so ugly that the team voided more than $25 million in guaranteed money from his contract. We've got the details here. There's a good chance that Aiyuk has played his last down for the 49ers and the expectation is that he'll be released during the offseason. With the in mind, we came up with some landing spots and you can check those out here. 
• Baker Mayfield dealing with shoulder injury. The Buccaneers quarterback had to leave the game at halftime after spraining his left shoulder in a 34-7 loss to the Rams. Mayfield is expected to undergo an MRI today and it if turns out that he has to miss any time, the Bucs (6-5) could be trouble. If Mayfield can't play this week, then Teddy Bridgewater will start against the Panthers on Sunday. 
• Justin Tucker set for try out with Saints. After watching Blake Grupe miss two field goals on Sunday, the Saints have decided to bring in several kickers for a tryout. According to NFL Media, one of those kickers will be Justin Tucker, who was suspended for the first 10 games of the season. This is Tucker's first tryout since returning from suspension.