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Week 12 started with some drama, which was much needed after nearly a month of ugly NFL games in primetime. The Texans took care of the Bills, which might be a good sign for the week and the choice primetime games we've got in store. 

Like last week, there's a ton of playoff leverage up for grabs and some monster games on the slate between division rivals.  

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Last week was rough for our spread picks and the big-time receivers didn't come through, so let's bounce back this week after a strong start from the Texans last night. Let's win some money.  

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Best bets

Lions -10.5 vs. Giants

The Lions have lost four times this season. After the previous three losses, they promptly came back and obliterated the teams they played the following week. 

This is just a thing with Detroit -- in their last 13 games following a loss, the Lions are 13-0 straight up and 13-0 against the spread. In those games, they're averaging 32.4 points per game and have a point differential of +17 per game in those matchups. 

The Giants are a great get-right team, especially with their current quarterback situation. If Jaxson Dart plays, it's unlikely he's going to use his legs a lot, primarily because of how much he's been hit and what a huge factor that was in Brian Daboll being let go. Mike Kafka isn't going to burn the ownership bridge over designed runs. 

Jared Goff had the worst game of his career last week and will want to look sharp in this one. He's much better indoors and at home, and he draws a New York secondary that should be highly vulnerable to big plays. 

The Lions should be fully capable of winning this game by three touchdowns. It's a perfect flex spot for a team that loves to flex after they look dumb. 

Buccaneers at Rams Over 49.5

The Rams snuck one out against the Seahawks last week, surviving a late-game touchdown that ruined what should have been an easy cover for Los Angeles. I think they'll win this game by a touchdown, but it's probably also going to be a situation where they're forced to score a lot more than they did last week. 

The Los Angeles defense has been excellent this season, but Baker Mayfield is going to show up for a primetime game, especially if he ends up getting Bucky Irving and Chris Godwin back. Even if he doesn't, the Bucs should be able to get to 20+ points in this spot.

And the L.A. offense isn't going to slow down. Matthew Stafford's the favorite for MVP right now -- justifiably, you know who's been calling it for the last month, yup, it's me -- and he should be able to sling it against this Bucs secondary with Tampa Bay likely to bottle up the run a bit. 

We've been cursed with some rough primetime games over the last few weeks, but this should be a gem. 

Steelers +2.5 vs. Bears

This is contingent on Aaron Rodgers playing, but there's no chance the veteran quarterback is going to miss an opportunity to throttle the Bears one last time (assuming this is his final season). 

Pittsburgh also really needs to win if it wants to stay in the playoff hunt, thanks to Baltimore surging a bit and starting to take control of the division. 

Rodgers was short with reporters this week when asked about what he needed in order to play, which leads me to believe 1) he's going to play and 2) he's going to play well. Taking the future Hall of Famer against the Bears, especially with Chicago riding high but probably a little bit fraudulent, is something I'm always interested in.

Panthers at 49ers Over 49

SportsLine subscribers were able to grab this early in the week at 47.5, which is obviously a much better number than the current 49.5. I'm fine with anything under 50, though, because we're going to get a ton of points in this one.

Brock Purdy's return immediately injected the San Francisco offense with some real verticality and Purdy should be able to throw against this Panthers defense.

Carolina wants to run, run, run but they are more than willing to abandon their gameplan when their opponent scores early, as we saw last week with the Falcons going up a couple touchdowns in the first half and Bryce Young eventually throwing for a franchise record 448 yards. 

I expect the Niners to jump all over the Panthers for a similar shootout in this one. 

Week 12 NFL player props 

Derrick Henry Over 17.5 carries

This number is getting juiced up, but it's fine to almost 20. Henry is averaging 20.4 carries over the last five games, Lamar Jackson is injured and this feels like a King Henry explosion game after a season of him being relatively quiet.

If you want to go after yardage instead, I don't mind it at all, but there's just a very good chance the Ravens feed Henry here and let him carry the rock as much as he can. Twenty carries and 200 yards is absolutely on the table. 

Justin Jefferson Over 62.5 receiving yards

I can't believe I have to say this, but backing Justin Jefferson feels a little dicey. Imagine that being a thing! It's because J.J. McCarthy just hasn't been all that accurate this season, mostly throwing fastballs every which way. 

And this is a bad defense to get right against, especially with the Packers really needing to win against the Vikings to keep pace in the division (they have to presume the Lions will find a way to win on Sunday). 

But the narrative this week has been pretty heavy about McCarthy finding a way to fix how he's playing, with Kevin O'Connell being pretty aggressive in his criticism of the young quarterback. 

I think we get a vintage Jefferson game courtesy of McCarthy's first full professional performance this week and he easily clears this number. 

Darnell Mooney Over 47.5 receiving yards 

The Falcons are in a bad spot, with Michael Penix out for the year and Drake London almost certainly out for this game. But this is an opportunity for Kirk Cousins to earn some money on a future contract. I think he'll have his best game of the season indoors as an underdog no one is interested in backing against a Saints team that's been frisky but isn't great.

And someone has to catch the passes he's throwing, so why not Mooney! 

Kyle Pitts was another consideration as well, and I'd prefer to take Mooney's receptions prop because the volume has to be there, but the 3.5s are just too juicy. If he can't get to 50 yards against the Saints, it means either Bijan Robinson goes completely nuts in this game or Cousins is completely and utterly washed. 

Anytime touchdown scorer props

Jameson Williams anytime TD (+155)

As my colleague Larry Hartstein noted over at SportsLine (Use promo code WINNERS for 60% off a full year subscription!), this is a great spot for Williams because how much single-high coverage the Giants play on defense. Also, the New York secondary stinks! 

Even better: The Lions were suffered their greatest humiliation of the season on Sunday night against the Eagles. And when the Lions are embarrassed, as we noted above, they come out guns blazing in their next game.

That means Goff slinging it, and with Sam LaPorta on IR, it should mean lots of looks for Williams, who is a threat to score every single time he touches the ball. Williams is set up for an explosive close to the season. When he's indoors against a questionable secondary, I want to bet on him scoring. 

Rashid Shaheed anytime TD (+265)

Speaking of bounceback spots, the Seahawks are in a great one after their loss to the Rams. They're massive 13.5-point favorites on the road against the woeful Titans and their defense should smother Cam Ward. 

I'd expect the Seahawks to run the ball effectively, which means Sam Darnold is going to have plenty of deep play-action looks. That sets up perfectly for Shaheed, who should have scored against the Rams except for a teensy bit of an underthrow by Darnold coupled with an excellent defensive play by Emmanual Forbes Jr. 

Seattle would like to get Shaheed in the end zone sooner rather than later after acquiring him at the trade deadline. This week is the week. 

Davante Adams anytime TD (-145)

We're going right back to the Adams well, even though the price is a little ridiculous. But the world is finally catching up to Adams' red-zone prowess -- he still leads the NFL in red-zone targets and he's in the middle of an incredibly positive touchdown regression run, having scored seven TDs in his last four games.

The Buccaneers will likely to bottle up the run, as they are wont to do, which means Matthew Stafford will need to do work against Tampa Bay's secondary. That means Adams targets, particularly in high-leverage spots. 

Mack Hollins anytime TD (+310)

The fact of the matter is Hollins just keeps getting on the field for the Patriots, seeing 85% of the snaps against the Jets in Week 11.

His run blocking is so valuable to what the Pats want to do and he's been an extremely reliable target for fellow UNC alum Drake Maye this year, so I expect he'll be back out getting looks again this week against a porous Bengals unit that's easily the worst defense football.

Hollins has 15 targets in his last two games and is an outstanding deep threat. He's morphed into a very reliable No. 2 option for New England. If we get Joe Burrow back for this one, it's just a bonus because it makes the game more of a shootout.