NFL Week 11 overreactions, plus grades for each team and Cowboys-Raiders predictions for Monday night

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Welcome to the Monday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!

After nine years on top of the AFC West, I think the Chiefs' reign might finally be over. Yes, there are still seven weeks to play in the season, but basic math tells be that the 5-5 Chiefs are not going to catch the 9-2 Broncos. If the Broncos go just 3-3 over their final six games, the Chiefs would have to go 7-0 to catch them and I don't think Kansas City has the firepower to pull that off.

The Chiefs aren't the only expected playoff contender struggling this year. Right now, the Chiefs, Ravens (5-5) and Lions (6-4) are all on the OUTSIDE of the playoff picture. Alright, I'm going to stop talking about the playoffs now because we have the next seven weeks to do that. Instead, let's get everything that happened in Week 11.

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1. NFL Week 11 grades: Chiefs didn't bring their 'A' game to Denver

Welcome to my favorite part of the Monday newsletter, which is where I hand out grades for all 32 teams. Actually, this week, I didn't grade all 32 teams because there were TWO teams on a bye, and then we have two teams playing tonight, so you're only getting 28 grades.

Anyway, here are the grades from three notable games that were played Sunday:

Bills 44-32 over Buccaneers (full recap)

Buccaneers takeaway: The Buccaneers actually played pretty well, but they just ran into a buzz saw. Sean Tucker, who has never rushed for more than 56 yards in a game, helped keep the offense on track by rushing for 106 yards and two touchdowns. Baker Mayfield made some jaw-dropping plays, but he had some trouble against the Bills defense in the second half, throwing for just 78 yards. And then there was the Bucs defense, which had no idea how to stop Josh Allen. At 6-4, the Bucs are still on top of the NFC South, but the race has suddenly got a lot tighter with the Panthers just a half game behind. Grade: C+
Bills takeaway: Josh Allen might have just forced himself back into the MVP conversation. The Bills QB put on his Superman cape and willed Buffalo to a win with a SIX-TOUCHDOWN performance that saw him run for three scores and pass for three scores. This marked just the second time in the Super Bowl era that a QB has scored three rushing touchdowns and three passing touchdowns in a game. (Allen has the only other performance, and that came in 2024 against the Rams.) When Allen is playing like this, the Bills (7-3) are pretty much impossible to beat. Grade: A-

Broncos 22-19 over Chiefs (full recap)

Chiefs takeaway: Whenever the Chiefs need a win, they always seem to find a way to get it, but they finally ran out of magic. For one, the defense had problems against Denver, especially during a second half where the Broncos scored on four of their five possessions. Usually, Patrick Mahomes makes up for any defensive shortcomings, but the Broncos were ready for everything he threw at them. The Chiefs offense had two chances to put this game away in the fourth quarter, but went three-and-out on its final two possessions while totaling just 2 yards. The ugliest part for the Chiefs is that they're now 0-5 on the year in one-score games. These are games the Chiefs would find a way to win the past, but this year, they keep coming up short. The Chiefs (5-5) can still make the playoffs, but it feels like their nine-year reign atop the AFC West is over. Grade: C
Broncos takeaway: In Denver's biggest game of the year, Bo Nix showed up and he showed out. The Broncos QB, who has been plagued by inconsistency this season, outdueled Patrick Mahomes in the win. Nix took over during a second half where he threw for 215 of his 295 yards, including 62 that came on Denver's final drive that set up Wil Lutz's game-winning field goal. Nix proved he can perform with the spotlight on him, which should help the Broncos going forward. Also, Denver's defense continues to look like the best one in the NFL: The unit sacked Patrick Mahomes three times and rarely let him create any of the patented magic that he's known for. The Broncos (9-2) didn't officially win the AFC West on Sunday, but it feels like this was a knockout punch for the Chiefs. Grade: B+

Eagles 16-9 over Lions (full recap)

Lions takeaway: Sometimes when you gamble, you go home broke and that's what happened to the Lions on Sunday night. Dan Campbell is one of the most aggressive coaches in the NFL and that aggressiveness backfired with the Lions getting stopped cold on five fourth down attempts, including a fake punt. The Lions' offense struggled because the Eagles were able to rattle Jared Goff. He got hit multiple times on an erratic night where he completed just 37.8% of his passes, which is the lowest completion rate of his career. Detroit's biggest plays came on short dump offs from Goff to Jahyr Gibbs. If the Lions (6-4) continue to play like this against defenses that can put pressure on Goff, their season is going to end with another short playoff trip, and that's if they even make the playoffs. Right now, they're on the outside looking in. Grade: C-
Eagles takeaway: Howie Roseman might have made the trade of the year by bringing in Jaelan Phillips. The Eagles new linebacker was a force last week and he was even better against the Lions. With Phillips in the lineup, the Eagles bullied the the Detroit offensive line for four straight quarters. Although Jared Goff was only sacked twice, that definitely doesn't tell the full story: He was hit multiple times and under pressure nearly every time he dropped back to pass. The Eagles offense is still trying to figure things out, but with the defense playing like this, they now have time to do it. A.J. Brown, who was complaining about his role in the offense last week, probably won't complain as much this week after catching seven passes for 49 yards. The Eagles always seem to win ugly, but they now have victories over some of the best teams in the NFC (Lions, Rams, Packers, Buccaneers) and there's nothing ugly about that. With the defense getting better every week, the Eagles (8-2) are a legitimate threat to repeat. Grade: B+

As for the other 22 grades we handed out in Week 11, you can check those out by clicking here.

2. NFL Week 11 winners and losers: Sam Darnold is seeing ghosts again

You can't have a week of NFL action without having winners and losers, so we have some winners and losers. Cody Benjamin came up with this week's list, and his list of losers is topped by a Sam Darnold, who threw four interceptions in a 21-19 loss to the Rams on Sunday.

LOSERS

Sam Darnold. The Seahawks gunslinger has had a rock-solid 2025 campaign, but he coughed up at least a bit of goodwill against the rival Rams, throwing four interceptions in a battle of first-place hopefuls in the NFC West. Granted, the Rams boast a persistent and physical defense, but Darnold too often looked frenetic in the pocket in Seattle's first loss since October. The Seahawks remain a force, but if that Darnold shows up late in the year, just like at the close of 2024 in Minnesota, look out.
Falcons coach Raheem Morris. The Falcons coach might already be on the hot seat. If he wasn't before Sunday, however, he almost surely is now. Yes, Michael Penix Jr. was forced to leave the club's rematch with the Panthers, who previously blanked Atlanta in a 30-0 September meeting. But not even Kirk Cousins, the demoted man under center, could save the Falcons from their own defense. Morris' unit somehow managed to let Bryce Young, one of the NFL's most sluggish passers, air it out for 448 yards.
Bengals. The stage was set for Cincinnati to embarrass the rival Steelers on the road on Sunday, with Aaron Rodgers leaving the contest due to a hand injury and Jalen Ramsey drawing an ejection for some extracurricular scuffling with Ja'Marr Chase. Instead, Zac Taylor's underachieving AFC North squad got basically no push from the Joe Flacco-led offense, with the aging fill-in quarterback finishing 23 of 40 with a pick, and video appeared to depict Chase spitting on Ramsey during their interactions. This is a sad, slumping team.

If you want to see the rest of Cody's losers along with his winners, be sure to click here.

3. Overreactions from Week 11: Are Chargers going to collapse?

Everyone on the internet loves to overreact to things, and that's especially true when we're talking about the the NFL. With that in mind, Tyler Sullivan decided to take a look at several things that happened in Week 11 to decide if we're all overreacting.

Statement: Chargers are at risk of missing the playoffs.
Overreaction or reality: Reality. That was a rough showing by the Chargers, who were blown out by the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday, 35-6. Justin Herbert continues to take his fair share of hits, but the quarterback also laid an egg. He completed 10 of his 18 passes for just 81 yards and an interception. This loss now drops the Chargers to 7-4 on the year, and doesn't do them any favors in the playoff race. ... Their next three opponents (Raiders, Eagles, Chiefs) each boast a strong pass rush, which could further exploit the Chargers' weakness at protecting Herbert. After seeing the offense go silent with him under siege again on Sunday against Jacksonville, their footing in the AFC playoff picture doesn't feel secure.

Statement: Vikings should bench J.J. McCarthy.
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction. Overall, McCarthy wasn't good against Chicago, even as the Vikings nearly pulled off another fourth-quarter comeback against their division rival. McCarthy completed just 16 of his 32 passes for 150 yards, a touchdown, and two interceptions. So far, McCarthy has eight interceptions in five career starts and is the first quarterback to record an interception in five straight games to begin his career since Zach Wilson in 2021. Not exactly the company you want to keep in the NFL record books. But does this take us to the point where Minnesota should bench McCarthy? That feels a touch too far, at least right now.

Statement: Packers are not a serious Super Bowl threat.
Overreaction or reality: Reality. Green Bay once again played down to its competition. While it didn't result in a loss this time around, the Packers needed a go-ahead touchdown drive and two-point conversion to fend off the New York Giants. Remember, this is a Giants team that had just fired its coach, and their budding star at quarterback, Jaxson Dart, was out with a concussion. ... When you pair this performance (albeit in a winning effort) with earlier losses this season to the Browns and Panthers, it's hard to look at the Packers as a serious Super Bowl threat in the NFC at the moment.

There are plenty more overreactions, and if you want to check those out, be sure to click here.

4. Crazy stats from Week 10: Shedeur Sanders has an ugly debut

Every Sunday night, I get an email from our research department here at CBS Sports, and every Sunday, that email always includes some wild stats about the games that were just played.

With that in mind, here are 15 crazy stats from Week 11:

Shedeur Sanders off to historically rough start. After an injury to Dillon Gabriel, Sanders was forced to play the second half against the Ravens and things got ugly: He went just 4 of 16 for 47 yards with an interceptions. Sanders had the worst completion percentage (25%) of any QB making their NFL debut since 1984 when Scott Stankavage completed 22.8% for the Broncos. Stankavage only played in three more games ever in his career. Sanders is also the first QB to go exactly 4 of 16 in his NFL debut since 1970 when four-time Super Bowl champion Terry Bradshaw had the same numbers. So maybe he'll win four Super Bowls?
Jacoby Brissett sets NFL record. The Cardinals QB completed 47 passes against the 49ers, which is the most by a QB in any game in NFL history. Brissett broke the previous record of 45, which had been held by both Jared Goff and Drew Bledsoe. Brissett now holds the regular-season record and he's tied with Ben Roethlisberger for the all-time record (Roethlisberger threw 47 completions in a playoff game).
Josh Allen turns into Superman. The Bills QB had three rushing touchdowns AND three passing touchdowns, marking just the third time in NFL history that a QB has pulled that off. Allen also accomplished the feat last year, and the only other QB to go three and three was Otto Graham in 1954. Allen is the only player to hit those TD totals while also throwing for over 300 yards.
Josh Allen turns into Superman, Part II. With his three rushing touchdowns, Allen now has 75 for his career, which is tied with Cam Newton for the most rushing touchdowns by a quarterback in NFL history.
Buccaneers-Bills game got wild. The Bills' 44-32 win over the Buccaneers featured a total of nine lead changes, which is tied for the second-most in a single game in NFL history.
Comeback kids. The Bears have won FIVE games this season when trailing in the final two minutes, which is the most in franchise history and the most by any team over the past 45 years.
Myles Garrett makes unfortunate history. The Browns' defensive star had four sacks in Cleveland's 23-16 loss to the Ravens. Garrett was also on the losing end of a game earlier this season when he had five sacks, making him the first player in NFL history to lose two games in the same season where he had four or more sacks.
Bryce Young sets unexpected franchise record. The Panthers QB threw for a franchise-record 448 yards against the Falcons on Sunday. The performance was totally unexpected for two reasons: For one, Young had the fewest passing yards per game (168.2) of any QB with at least nine starts this year. Also, he did it against a Falcons defense that had given up the fewest passing yards per game (162.3) in the NFL heading into Week 11.
Giants join rare club that you don't want to be in. Since Week 8, the Giants have scored at least 20 points in four straight games, but they've lost them all. That makes them just the fourth team since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970 to lose four straight games where they scored at least 20 points (They join the 1999-00 49ers, 2002 Bengals, 2012 Lions).
High drama in Week 11. There were five games decided on the final play, which is tied for the most on any day in NFL history. Carolina, Chicago, Denver, Houston, and Miami all won with a field goal in walk-off fashion.
Broncos are on a sack attack. With three sacks against the Chiefs, the Broncos now have 49 for the season, which is the most by any team through 11 weeks since 1989 when the Vikings racked up 53.
Kelce has the most touchdowns in Chiefs history. Travis Kelce scored one touchdown against the Broncos, which gives him 84 for his career. That gives him the most touchdowns in franchise history, moving him past Priest Holmes, who scored 83.
Trey McBride on the cusp of history. The Cardinals tight end caught 10 passes for 115 yards and a touchdown against the 49ers. That makes him just the second tight end in NFL history with at least five receptions, 50 yards receiving and a touchdown catch in five straight games in a single season, joining Antonio Gates, who did it in 2010.
Davante Adams joins exclusive club. The Rams receiver caught a TD pass against the Seahawks and has now caught at least 10 TD passes with three different teams (Raiders, Packers, Rams). Adams is just the third player in NFL history to pull that off, joining Brandon Marshall (Broncos, Jets, Bears) and Terrell Owens (49ers, Cowboys, Eagles).
We got a scorigami. The Bills' 44-32 win over the Buccaneers marked the first time in NFL history that a game ever ended with that exact score. It was the 1,095th unique final score for the NFL. If you're wondering how many other unique scores we saw on Sunday, we broke that down here.

If you see any other fun facts, feel free to tweet them at me.

5. Monday night preview: Picks and best bets for Cowboys at Raiders

The final game of Week 11 will be taking place in Las Vegas where the Raiders (2-7) will be hosting the Cowboys (3-5-1). It's likely going to be an emotional night for the Cowboys because this will be their first game since the death of Marshawn Kneeland. The Cowboys are expected to wear a special helmet decal tonight (and for the rest of the season) to honor Kneeland.

Here's one reason why each team should be feeling confident going into the game:

Why the Cowboys can win: If the Cowboys have proven one thing this season, it's that the only way they're going to win is if their offense puts up big numbers. The Cowboys are undefeated this year (3-0-1) when they top 400 yards of offense, but 0-5 when they don't. That puts a lot of pressure on the offense, but they should be able to handle it tonight. The Cowboys have some strong receiving weapons in George Pickens in CeeDee Lamb, who should be able to take advantage of the Raiders' secondary. If Dak Prescott and the offense can turn this into a shootout, that would almost certainly favor Dallas.
Why the Raiders can win: If your offense makes the bus ride to the game, you have a chance to beat the Cowboys. Heading into Week 11, the Cowboys have given up the second-most yards per game (397.4) and second-most points per game (30.8) and third-most passing yards per game. If the Raiders play smart football, they should be able to move the ball. If Geno Smith brings his 'A' game, this could be a huge night for a Raiders offense that has scored seven points or less in two of its past three games. With the Cowboys struggling to stop the pass, Brock Bowers could be in line to have a monstrous game, and if that happens, that could put the Raiders in line to pull off the upset.

You can get a full preview of the game from Jared Dubin by clicking here.

If you're thinking about betting on the game, here are a couple of props (via BetMGM).

ONE RUSHING PROP I LIKE: Dak Prescott OVER 9.5 yards rushing (-110): Prescott isn't exactly known for his ability to run, but this is such a low number, I have to take the over. For the 2025 season, Dak has averaged 13.4 yards rushing per game and he's gone over 30 YARDS in his past two games. With Maxx Crosby chasing him around tonight, I'm thinking that we'll see Dak take off on a few scrambles.
ONE KICKING PROP I LIKE TONIGHT: Daniel Carlson OVER 7.5 points (+110): The Cowboys are surrendering 30.3 points per game this year, which was the second-highest number in the NFL heading into Week 11, and a lot of those points have come from opposing kickers. In nine games this season, opposing kickers have averaged 8.1 points per game against Dallas. Trusting the Raiders offense to move the ball is definitely risky, but I think they'll be able to give Carlson several scoring opportunities against a Cowboys defense that has struggled all year.

If you're wondering how my props are doing this year, I'm 23-23 (8-13 on kicker props and 15-10 on all other props).

And now, it's time for some picks.

PICKS FOR 'MNF'

My pick: Cowboys 34-27 over Raiders
Dubin's pick: Cowboys 30-20 over Raiders
Prisco's pick: Cowboys 31-20 over Raiders

Over on our CBSSports.com picks page, all eight of us are taking the Cowboys to win and seven of us are taking Dallas to cover as a 3.5-point favorite.

6. Extra points: Michael Penix Jr. might be out for the season

It was a busy weekend in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you.

Michael Penix Jr. placed on IR, possibly done for the year. The Falcons QB suffered a knee injury on Sunday that could "potentially" end his season, according to CBS Sports NFL insider Jonathan Jones. The Falcons placed Penix on injured reserve, which means he'll miss at least the next four games. With Penix out, Kirk Cousins will step into the starter's role. We've got more details on the Penix injury here.
Aaron Rodgers could miss Week 12. The Steelers QB slightly fractured his left wrist during Pittsburgh's 34-12 win over Cincinnati on Sunday, which could cause him to miss some time. However, since it's his non-throwing wrist, there is a chance the Rodgers could play this week against the Bears, according to NFL Media. CBSSports.com's Bryan DeArdo made the argument that Mason Rudolph should start this week no matter what and you can check out his story here.
Jalen Ramsey gets into feud with Ja'Marr Chase: The Steelers cornerback was ejected from the game on Sunday for punching Ja'Marr Chase. According to Ramsey, he only punched Chase because the Bengals receiver spit on him (You can see the spitting here). Philadelphia's Jalen Carter got hit with a one-game suspension for spitting earlier this year, so it will be interesting to see what happens with Chase. The NFL is expected to announce any sort of punishment at some point today. You can read more about Spitgate here.
Jets' Kris Boyd is hospitalized after being shot. Jets cornerback Kris Boyd is in critical but stable condition at a New York hospital after being shot in the abdomen just after 2 a.m. on Sunday. Boyd, who suffered a season-ending shoulder injury in August, signed a one-year deal with the Jets during the offseason. No arrests have been made in the shooting.
Updated NFL Draft order. With 11 weeks in the books, the Titans currently hold the top pick in the NFL Draft. The biggest surprise so far this year is that the Rams could earn a top 10 pick. The Falcons sent their 2026 first-round pick to L.A. as part of a draft day trade in 2025. Right now, the Falcons are 3-7, which would put the Rams in line to get the eighth overall pick. If you want to see what the full draft order currently looks like, we've got that here.