NFL Week 11 lookahead lines: Early best bets worth considering before Week 10
Use the information the market is giving you to get ahead of line movement for NFL Week 11 and lock in early value
Our look ahead last week offered value on the Raiders, Falcons and Ravens compared to the Thursday lines for those matchups, even though all three have reasons to like the other side, showing how off-base the lookahead lines were in each case.
For the Raiders, their line has dropped despite dealing away Jakobi Meyers and -- perhaps more importantly -- playing an overtime game on Sunday that threatens to put an overworked defense in a bad state on Thursday night. The Falcons now have to face a Colts defense with Sauce Gardner, while the Ravens are up against a Vikings offense that took a major step toward answering questions around J.J. McCarthy at quarterback in the win over the Lions.
Nevertheless, all three lines have moved at least a half-point in the direction we expected when we highlighted each last week. We even got a little bit of value suggesting an Under play on Browns-Jets at the already low total of 38.5. Other key line movements from the lookahead involve injuries at quarterback (Commanders, Texans) and offensive line (Chargers), a flip of favorites after the Jets traded away two defensive superstars, and the Panthers line inflating after the upset of the Packers.
What can we predict this week? Let's take a look at the consensus Week 11 lookahead lines and then share our best bets to lock in early.
Week 11 lookahead lines
Jets at Patriots (-10.5), 46.5
Commanders (-1.5) vs. Dolphins, 46.5 (in Madrid)
Panthers at Falcons (-3.5), 44.5
Bears at Vikings (-3), 46.5
Packers (-7) at Giants, 46.5
Bengals at Steelers (-6), 49.5
Texans (-7.5) at Titans, 38.5
Buccaneers at Bills (-6), 50.5
Chargers (-1.5) at Jaguars, 44.5
Seahawks at Rams (-2.5), 47.5
49ers (-1.5) at Cardinals, 47.5
Ravens (-7.5) at Browns, 41.5
Chiefs (-3) at Broncos, 45.5
Lions at Eagles (-1.5), 48.5
Cowboys (-3.5) at Raiders, 51
Week 11 lookahead picks
Jets at Patriots
I don't think the Jets are dead in the water after trading their two defensive stars for draft picks, as they have solid young players behind both who might be able to rise to the challenge of increased playing time. But even if they struggle over the remainder of the year, I certainly think they can slow down a bad Browns offense hitting the road with Dillon Gabriel at quarterback. The Patriots are 'dogs to the Bucs this week, and if their win streak gets broken while the Jets beat expectations, this line should tick down to at least 10 and maybe even below.
Commanders vs. Dolphins in Madrid
Both teams are massive home underdogs this week after the Commanders lost Jayden Daniels to a long-term injury and the Dolphins went back to looking hapless against the Ravens. Despite their offense getting shut down multiple times this season, the Dolphins have scored 27+ points four times and figure to be able to move the ball against a poor Washington defense. The question is how effective the Washington offense looks against a ticked-off Lions team coming off a loss, and I don't have a lot of hope. I can see this reopening at pick 'em on the neutral field as the market tries to figure out how to value Washington moving forward.
Texans at Titans
I have fallen for backing the Titans too many times this season, but this figures to be the spot to do it, right? They'll be coming off a bye with two weeks to prepare for a home matchup with an inconsistent offensive team that is expected to lose at home in a low-scoring game this week with C.J. Stroud sidelined. If this game was in Houston, I'd struggle to back them as favorites of more than a touchdown against anyone knowing the offense could fall on its face at any time. On the road, it feels like I'm going to be on the Titans if this line stays above seven.
Other notes: The Chargers are 1.5-point favorites against the Jaguars in Week 11, and we just talked about Jacksonville being expected to beat the Texans in Houston. If that happens, this line could tick down upon reopen, but the bigger move could come after the Sunday Night Football game if the Chargers offensive line looks like a mess against Pittsburgh. If that happens, we could see the Jaguars wind up flipping to favorites once again ... The Packers continually play down to their opponents, and if the Giants appear on the road to getting healthy on defense, it's hard to see the market backing Green Bay as a seven-point favorite on the road in that matchup. If the injury report trends well for the Giants this week, this may be a play worth making before we get to the Sunday reopen, and if the Packers can't beat the Eagles on Monday night, this line will certainly come down.
