NFL Week 11 betting power ratings: Struggling Packers in NFC's second tier, plus how all 32 teams stack up
Here's how we're setting the spreads for every Week 11 matchup in the NFL
I had high hopes for the Packers at the beginning of the 2025 offseason, and wrapping up the offseason by adding Micah Parsons put them squarely in the Super Bowl conversation, which only accelerated after convincing wins over the Lions in Week 1 and Commanders in Week 2. It's been mostly downhill since, including losses to the Browns and Panthers, a tie against the Cowboys that felt like a loss after squandering a massive lead, and now a home loss to defending Super Bowl champion Eagles.
To be sure, the defense did its job, holding Philly to 10 points and 4.9 yards per play. But the offense has now had one good half in the last three games combined as it deals with injuries to pass-catchers. The absence of Tucker Kraft could be felt throughout the game as the remaining receivers and Luke Musgrave struggled to create separation, while an upgraded Eagles defensive line put Jordan Love under pressure all night.
I think the Packers have been surpassed by the Seahawks and Rams and sit in a tier below those teams, the Lions and Eagles in the NFC. Assuming the 49ers eventually succumb to all their injuries and the Bears don't keep escaping close games with wins, Green Bay should be relatively locked into a playoff spot, but there aren't many gimmes on the schedule so they are going to have to find some answers on offense soon.
Just behind the Packers in my spread power ratings are the Patriots, who are a fumblefest against Pittsburgh away from a nine-game winning streak and the best record in football. Instead, they're tied with the Colts and Broncos at 8-2 for the NFL's best record, although I have various degrees of belief in those three teams. The Patriots are in the middle of the 8-2 group, and even though they've faced a very easy schedule, it doesn't get any harder any time soon so the No. 1 seed is certainly within reach. I'm willing to lay however many points is needed against an awful Jets offense and would think about taking some alt spreads as well.
I'll have several more spread picks this week at SportsLine, where members are able to get access to all my picks throughout the week as they're made and hopefully take advantage of some good line value.
Let's dive into our betting power ratings and highlight a few more teams of note.
Week 11 power ratings
| Team | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | 7 | 7 | 7.5 | 6.5 | 5.5 |
| DET | 6 | 5.5 | 6 | 6 | 4.5 |
| SEA | 5.5 | 5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 3 |
| LAR | 5.5 | 5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 3 |
| IND | 5.5 | 5 | 5 | 4.5 | 2.5 |
| PHI | 5.5 | 5 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 3 |
| BUF | 5 | 6 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| BAL | 5 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| GB | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
| NE | 3.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2 | 1 |
| LAC | 1 | 1.5 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| TB | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| HOU | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 |
| DEN | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| MIN | 0 | -1 | -1.5 | -1 | -1 |
| ATL | -1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 1 |
| PIT | -1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| SF | -1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | -1.5 |
| CHI | -1 | -1 | -1.5 | -1 | -1.5 |
| DAL | -1 | -1 | -1 | 1 | -1.5 |
| JAC | -2 | -1.5 | -1 | -1.5 | 0 |
| ARI | -2 | -1 | -1 | -1.5 | -1.5 |
| NYG | -3.5 | -3.5 | -3.5 | -2 | -3 |
| LV | -4 | -3.5 | -3.5 | -4.5 | -4 |
| CAR | -4 | -3.5 | -4.5 | -3.5 | -4 |
| MIA | -4.5 | -5 | -4.5 | -5 | -4.5 |
| CIN | -5 | -5 | -4.5 | -4.5 | -5.5 |
| WAS | -5.5 | -3.5 | -1 | 0 | 2.5 |
| CLE | -5.5 | -5.5 | -5.5 | -5 | -5 |
| NO | -5.5 | -6.5 | -5.5 | -4.5 | -4 |
| NYJ | -7.5 | -6.5 | -6 | -6 | -6.5 |
| TEN | -8 | -8 | -8 | -7 | -6.5 |
You can argue for any order of the top four teams in the NFC I feel, even though I have the Lions a half-point ahead of the pack. Dan Campbell taking over playcalling duties last week is intriguing, and as long as the offensive line isn't completely beset by injuries (which seems like could happen at any time with players in and out of the lineup), I'd take them on a neutral field against any of the other NFC contenders.
Market ratings seem to disagree and put the Rams at the top, and while Matthew Stafford is playing at an absurd level, I haven't completely bought into the Rams defense after their recent domination of a lot of flawed offenses. If they can slow down the Seahawks next week, I'd have to have them alongside the Lions at the top of the conference.
It seems silly to take the Colts over the Bills or Ravens on a neutral field, but I don't think those preseason Super Bowl favorites are playing at the same level right now, with questions on both sides of the ball for each. They should probably be closer to the Patriots if anything, so even though having both outside the top five feels wrong, I may still be giving them a little too much faith in reaching their expected peak in any given week.
I'm reluctantly bumping the Texans to above average, even though their big offensive performances in recent weeks have come against defenses that can't exploit their offensive line issues. That'll probably be the case against the Titans again this week, but then they have a run of matchups against the Bills, Colts and Chiefs that'll show us if they should be taken seriously as a playoff contender.
The Vikings are a sleeper team I have rated as dead average, as the defense is finally clicking with Andrew Van Ginkel back and the offense appears to have more upside with J.J. McCarthy than it seemed early in the season. It's pretty easy to make an argument that they should be the first team outside of the clear top 10, with questions around how effective the Chargers and Broncos offenses will be most weeks and the Bucs still trying to get key players back.
I've bumped the Cardinals down a full point with all the injuries they're dealing with on defense, but I don't know that there's much separation between them and the 49ers, which makes the fact that they're three-point home underdogs in that Week 11 matchup at some sportsbooks surprising. San Francisco could still be a 10-win team considering the remaining games on its schedule, but I see this as one of the 49ers' tougher matchups.
I bumped the Commanders two full points down as I keep trying to calibrate their true rating with Jayden Daniels out. The defense is terrible, and since I have more faith in the Cincy offense, it felt like I had to have Washington below the Bengals in my ratings, which put them alongside the Browns and Saints. Not great!
Full Week 11 projected lines
| Away | Home | Lookahead | Consensus | PR Spread | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ | NE | -10.5 | -11.5 | -11.5 | |
| WAS | MIA | +1.5 | -2.5 | -1 | In Madrid |
| CAR | ATL | -3.5 | -3.5 | -5 | |
| CHI | MIN | -2.5 | -3 | -3 | |
| CIN | PIT | -6.5 | -5.5 | -5.5 | Beware CIN backdoor cover |
| GB | NYG | +7 | +7.5 | +6.5 | PR Spread for Dart at QB |
| HOU | TEN | +8.5 | +7.5 | +7 | |
| TB | BUF | -6 | -5.5 | -7 | Injury updates could drop PR Spread |
| LAC | JAC | +1.5 | +3 | +1.5 | |
| SEA | LAR | -2.5 | -2.5 | -1.5 | Market not giving SEA enough credit |
| SF | ARI | +1.5 | +2.5 | -1 | |
| KC | DEN | +2.5 | +3.5 | +4 | |
| BAL | CLE | +7.5 | +8.5 | +7.5 | |
| DET | PHI | -1.5 | -1.5 | -1 | |
| DAL | LV | +3.5 | +3.5 | +1.5 |
This is how I would set each game based on my power ratings and home field advantage data for this week. A large discrepancy between the projected power rating lines and the market lines does not make the game an autoplay, but it gives us a basis for potential strong picks pending further analysis.
