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Welcome to the NFL's season of parity. Want a dominant team? Sorry, the Rams lost to the Panthers in Week 13. The Broncos eked out another nail-biter to become the first team in NFL history to have a nine-game winning streak in which they trailed in every game. The Patriots extended their own winning streak to 10 games, but exactly two of those wins have come against teams that would be in the playoffs if they started today. Just when you think you can trust a team, they lay an egg or show a serious, troublesome flaw.

Or they simply remind you the NFL is a hard, hard business. As Broncos coach Sean Payton said after a 27-26 overtime win at the Commanders, "We don't survive. We won."

The numbers back up a season of tiny margins and historic parity. From CBS Sports researcher Doug Clawson:

  • This is the first time in NFL history where there are five divisions with a lead under one game this late in the season.
  • There are 20 teams with a .500 or better record, tied for most through 13 weeks in NFL history.
  • There are 11 teams with 20-1 or shorter Super Bowl odds (via FanDuel Sportsbook), the most through Week 13 since 2010.

Trying to parse through all of these challengers is an immense chore, one that seemingly gets more convoluted each week. As such, we're breaking down the 20 teams in the playoff race into tiers of trustworthiness as the season hits the stretch run.

Tier 1: Inner circle of trustworthiness

Los Angeles Rams: Yes, the Rams still land here, even after a loss to the Panthers. Each of the three last Super Bowl champions has an inexplicable loss. The 2025 Eagles lost to the Kirk Cousins-led Falcons; Philadelphia eventually became the first team to win a Super Bowl the same season it lost to Cousins. The 2023 Chiefs lost to the Aidan O'Connell-led Raiders in Week 16. The 2022 Chiefs lost to the Matt Ryan-led Colts, who finished 4-12-1.

The Panthers, who got two fourth-down touchdown passes from Bryce Young and some help from a rainy day, might just be that for Los Angeles. The Rams lead the NFL in offensive success rate, are 10th in defensive success rate, have a Super Bowl-winning quarterback in Matthew Stafford, two superstar wide receivers in Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, arguably the NFL's best coach in Sean McVay and a defense that can create havoc and rarely allows big plays.

Green Bay Packers: The Packers also claim a spot here. Like the Rams, the Packers lost to the Panthers. They also lost to the Browns. But Green Bay is fourth in offensive success rate and 11th in defensive success rate. Jordan Love has played outstanding football; PFF has him as the third highest-graded quarterback in the NFL behind Stafford and Dak Prescott. Micah Parsons is wreaking havoc as part of one of the NFL's most fearsome defenses.

No team is perfect, and this year especially, no team is all that close. But these two teams have separated themselves from the others.


Tier 2: Quarterbacks can carry them

Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs are currently 6-6 and 10th in the AFC. They are very much fighting for their playoff lives, with a Week 14 "Sunday Night Football" showdown with the Texans a near must-win.

And yet they have Patrick Mahomes, who is enough reason to think they can not only stage a late-season rally, but be a factor in the Super Bowl conversation. Mahomes was sensational in a 31-28 Thanksgiving Day loss to the Cowboys. He is second in expected points added per play this season. He's been to the Super Bowl five times in seven full seasons as a starter.

Buffalo Bills: Allen has been as individually brilliant as any quarterback in postseason history, and if Mahomes didn't exist, he may well be a multi-time Super Bowl champion. Allen's been more up-and-down this year than he was in last year's MVP campaign, but he remains a singular force who can take over. Just ask the Buccaneers, against whom Allen accounted for six touchdowns in Week 11.

Los Angeles Chargers: Herbert also gets a nod here, though the Chargers' crumbling offensive line and Herbert's health are significant causes for concern. Rewatch his performances from Week 1 against the Chiefs and Week 3 against the Broncos, though, and you'll see the magic he can produce on any play.

Tier 3: Trust the offense, not the defense

It was a meandering path to get here -- one that included acquiring the talented-yet-mercurial George Pickens, trading away superstar Micah Parsons and then landing Quinnen Williams at the trade deadline -- but Jerry Jones has suddenly combined his love for being newsworthy with the football goal of fielding a good team. Dallas has won three straight.

Pickens has turned all that talent into superstar production, and he and CeeDee Lamb make up one of the best wide receiver duos in the league. Dak Prescott is playing at a high level, and the defense, boosted by the trade deadline and by improved health, is playing better of late.

Still, Dallas, at 6-5-1 and ninth in the NFC, has its work cut out for it. The defense has gone from untenable to middle of the pack, but is that enough?

The 11-2 Patriots, meanwhile, are 13th in offensive success rate and sixth in explosive play rate but 24th in defensive success rate. Drake Maye has ascended to stardom. Still, until the Patriots beat some more of the league's best, they can't be in Tier 1. They won't get that opportunity until the postseason.

Since Week 9, the Lions are 27th in net yards per attempt allowed. The run defense is terrific, but the pass defense is really struggling, and with an offense that's been good but not great, that weakness is even more exposed.

Tier 4: Trust the defense, not the offense

This chart tells you all you need to know about this trio of teams.

Success rate ranks this season Offense Defense

Seahawks

12th

5th

Broncos

21st

3rd

Texans

25th

2nd

The Seahawks come closest to qualifying for Tier 1. After all, Seattle is +850 to win the Super Bowl at FanDuel Sportsbook, the second-shortest odds in the NFL. But that should tell you more about the state of the league than Seattle. Sam Darnold has never won a playoff game, and after an outstanding start, he has started to tail off significantly. He has thrown just two touchdowns and four interceptions over the past three games, looking especially shaky when pressured.

Bo Nix continues to provide a roller coaster ride for the Broncos, but Denver just keeps winning. C.J. Stroud and the Texans are coming off their biggest win of the season over the Colts and have won four straight but are still eighth in the AFC standings.

Tier 5: Wild cards

Fittingly, this is the largest tier, and yes, it even includes the top seed in the NFC. How are we truly supposed to judge the Bears, who are 9-3 but have a +6 point differential on the season, 16th in the NFL? Chicago isn't elite on either side of the ball: Its running game is among the league's best, its passing game among the league's worst, its defense among the league's worst on a down-to-down basis but its best in terms of creating turnovers.

The Bears' best win came against another team in this tier, the Eagles. Philadelphia has the league's worst defensive rushing success rate, and the offense has ranged from sloppy to strange to simply bad.

Also in this tier are several teams whose quarterbacks give us pause. The 49ers defense has struggled, and Brock Purdy can be a turnover machine. Lamar Jackson hasn't looked close to his normal self as a runner or a thrower. Trevor Lawrence's highs and lows are a wide chasm. Daniel Jones has started to struggle after a white-hot start, and a fractured fibula is clearly hindering him.

Tier 6: Not trustworthy

"Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in": The story of the 2025 Panthers. Carolina has alternated wins and losses since Week 7. They have wins over the Packers and the Rams. They also have a 10-point loss to the Saints, an 11-point loss to the 49ers and a 31-point loss to the Bills; in all three of those games, they failed to score double-digit points.

If that's not trustworthy, I don't know what is. Carolina deserves tremendous credit for being in this playoff race. The defense has played a scrappy, opportunistic brand of football. The offense will pound the rock and hope Bryce Young can make just enough plays to complement that. It's just too narrow of a path for success. Carolina is 6-3 when it has at least a 40% rushing success rate. It is 1-3 when that number dips below that.

The Steelers are running the late-career Aaron Rodgers gambit. He's struggling and blaming others, and fans are booing and chanting for Mike Tomlin to be fired. It's a mess.