Biggest overreactions from NFL Week 1, plus grades for each team and picks for Vikings-Bears Monday game

Getty Images

Welcome to the Monday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!

The first full Sunday of the season is officially in the books, and if the first weekend was a sign of how crazy things are going to be this year, I'm not sure we're going to be able to handle it.

The award for wildest game of the day definitely goes to Ravens-Bills. I know there are still 257 games left on the regular-season schedule, but I'm going to go ahead and nominate this one as the best game of the 2025 season. The Bills overcame a 15-point deficit in the final four minutes to beat Baltimore, 41-40.

We'll be talking about that game in today's newsletter, plus we'll be breaking down everything else we saw on Sunday.

As always, here's your reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here.

1. NFL Week 1 grades: Packers get 'A' for beating Lions, Bills earn 'B+' after wild win

You guys don't have to call me Professor Breech, but that's what I call myself during the NFL season since I'm in charge of handing out the grades for every game. There have been 15 games played in Week 1 so far and we've graded them all.

Here's a look at the grades from three notable games that were played Sunday:

Colts 33-8 over Dolphins (Click here for full recap)

Dolphins takeaway: You can't win in the NFL if your quarterback keeps giving the ball away and Tua Tagovailoa kept giving the ball away against the Colts. Tua turned the ball over three times on Miami's first four drives with two interceptions and a lost fumble, and the Colts scored 17 points off of those turnovers. The Dolphins committed $212.4 million to Tua before the start of the 2024 season and so far, he's not living up to the deal. If he doesn't figure things out soon, it could be an ugly year for Miami. Grade: F
Colts takeaway: This was a day of redemption for the Colts. On offense, Daniel Jones quieted his critics by playing a nearly perfect game that saw him total 283 yards and three touchdowns (two rushing, one passing). Rookie tight end Tyler Warren showed that he could be a force this year by catching six passes for 61 yards. On the defensive side of the ball, Lou Anuramo also redeemed himself. The former Bengals defensive coordinator, who was fired by Cincinnati in January, put together a game plan that essentially shut down the Dolphins' high-powered offense. This was arguably the most impressive win by any team in Week 1. Grade: A+

Packers 27-13 over Lions (Click here for full recap)

Lions takeaway: The most unexpectedly bad performance from Week 1 definitely came from the Lions. They looked terrible on offense, they looked terrible on defense and Dan Cambell got outcoached by Matt LaFleur. This was Detroit's first game since losing offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to the Bears and the offense looked lost without him. Overall, the Lions somehow didn't look prepared for a game that they had all offseason to prepare for. Grade: F
Packers takeaway: This was a total domination by a Packers team that steamrolled the Lions. The defense beat up on Jared Goff, sacking him four times, including one that came from Micah Parsons. The Packers also shut down the Lions' vaunted rushing attack. It almost felt like the Packers knew what the LIons were going to do on offense before the Lions even did it. Offensively, Jordan Love showed some love to nearly every receiver on the roster by completing at least one pass to 10 different players. The Packers made a statement in this game and that statement is that they might be the best team in the NFC North this year. Grade: A

Bills 41-40 over Ravens (Click here for full recap)

Ravens takeaway: For three quarters, the Ravens played a nearly perfect game, but things fell apart fast in the fourth quarter. Derrick Henry rushed for an impressive 169 yards and two touchdowns, but he coughed up the ball late in the fourth quarter to give Buffalo life. Lamar Jackson was unstoppable for most of the game, but he got cramps late in the fourth quarter, which might explain why the Ravens were held to just 28 total yards on their final three possessions combined after. The Ravens offensive meltdown happened at the same time as their defensive meltdown and that led to Baltimore getting outgained 264-87 in the fourth quarter. That's how you blow a 40-25 lead with four minutes left to play. The Ravens have to figure out how to close out games or this could be another season that ends in disappointment. Grade: B
Bills takeaway: As long as the Bills have Josh Allen, they're never out of it. The Bills won this game because Allen put on his Superman cape in the fourth quarter: The reigning NFL MVP threw for 251 of his 394 passing yards in the final quarter while also totaling three touchdowns (one passing, two rushing). It was an epic performance that led to an epic win. Keon Coleman had a breakout game that saw him catch a career high eight passes for 112 yards and a score. The Bills defense also deserves some credit. The unit gave up 345 yards through the first three quarters, but managed to shut down the Ravens in crunch time when Buffalo needed it most. This was a matchup between two Super Bowl-contending heavyweights and it should give the Bills plenty of confidence going forward knowing that they can pull off a dramatic comeback like this against one of the best teams in the NFL. Grade: B+

As for the other 24 grades that we handed out in Week 1, you can check those out by clicking here.

2. NFL Week 1 winners and losers: Aaron Rodgers gets revenge

You can't have a week of NFL action without having winners and losers, so we have some winners and losers. Cody Benjamin came up with this week's list, which you can check out below.

Winners

Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers. You can't get much better than waltzing into MetLife Stadium and tossing four scores in a 34-32 shootout win over the team that unceremoniously dumped you in the spring. Rodgers didn't look ageless in his Steelers debut, absorbing four sacks, but he sure looked more comfortable than he did while playing for the Jets.
Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield. Not only did the scrappy Buccaneers quarterback benefit from Younghoe Koo's last-second missed field goal, which squandered a would-be Falcons win in the two sides' NFC South rivalry, but he found a potential new No. 1 pass outlet in rookie Emeka Egbuka, who collected four of six targets for a team-high 64 yards and two touchdowns in the 23-20 Tampa Bay win. He's a keeper.
Commanders WR Deebo Samuel. The former 49ers standout was the subject of some offseason ribbing, with plenty of fans arguing he arrived in Washington out of shape. It didn't matter against the New York Giants, as Samuel led Washington with seven catches for 77 yards and also scored on the ground with a 19-yard burst in the Commanders' 21-6 victory.

If you want to see Cody's list of losers, be sure to click here.

3. Overreactions from Week 1: Is the Lions' Super Bowl window closed?

Everyone on the internet loves to overreact to things, and that's especially true when we're talking about the the NFL. With that in mind, Jeff Kerr decided to take a look at several things that happened during the second week of the preseason to decide if we're all overreacting.

Statement: The Lions Super Bowl window has closed.
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction. The Lions losing both coordinators this offseason was a storyline, and it was put on notice in an abysmal effort against the Packers. ... The defense was just as bad as the offense. ... The coordinator changes are a concern and the Lions aren't on the level as the Packers right now, but there are plenty of games needed to jell and turn things around. This is a true test for Dan Campbell to get this team right before things really go south, but there's no reason to panic yet.

Statement: Robert Saleh was the best coordinator hire this offseason.
Overreaction or reality: Reality. Saleh coming back to the 49ers was an underrated hire that should have been talked about more. ... The 49ers defense was brilliant in Sunday's 17-13 win over the Seahawks, holding the Seahawks to just 230 yards and 4.6 yards per play. Seattle was just 3 of 10 on third down and couldn't get any sustainable drives going in a second half that resulted in two punts, two fumbles, and a field goal.

Statement: Dolphins are the worst team in the NFL.
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction. What an embarrassing display for the Dolphins in their season opener against the Colts. This was supposed to be a game where the Dolphins could start the season on the right foot against a Colts team that appeared to be a sinking ship themselves. The Dolphins aren't the worst team in the NFL (yet). They played like it in Week 1, but changes could be coming if this unit doesn't get its act together.

There are plenty more overreactions, and if you want to check those out, be sure to click here.

4. 15 crazy stats from Week 1: The legend of Daniel Jones is starting, Ravens loss ends historical streak

Every Sunday night, I get an email from our research department here at CBS Sports, and every Sunday, that email always includes some amazingly wild stats about the games that were just played.

With that in mind, here are 15 crazy stats from Week 1:

Indiana Jones and the Temple of Awesome. With Daniel Jones at QB, the Colts scored on all seven of their possessions, making them the first team since 1977 to have at least seven possessions in a game and score on ALL OF THEM. Jones threw for 272 yards and a touchdown while adding another two rushing touchdowns in Indy's 33-8 win over Miami.
Colts end ugly drought. The Colts win over the Dolphins was their first Week 1 win since 2013. Over the past 11 seasons, they had gone 0-10-1, which was the second-longest streak in NFL history without an opening week win (The Browns lost 17 straight openers from 2005 to 2021).
Ravens' loss ends 277-game winning streak by NFL teams. Going into Sunday night, NFL teams were 277-0 all-time when scoring at least 40 points and rushing for at least 235 yards, but that streak ended with the Bills pulling off a stunning comeback for a 41-40 win. The Ravens totaled 238 yards on the ground in the loss.
Bills miraculous comeback. With four minutes left to play, the Bills were trailing the Ravens 40-25, but they still managed to win, making Buffalo the first team in NFL history to win a game after trailing by 15 points or more in the final four minutes of play.
Aaron Rodgers ties a Tom Brady record. The Steelers QB threw four TD passes with zero interceptions against the Jets, marking the 28th time in his career that he's hit those numbers. That means he's now tied with Tom Brady for the most games in NFL history with at least four TD passes and zero picks. Rodgers also set the record for most TD passes by a QB in a Steelers debut. Rodgers also threw for 244 yards, making him the FIRST QB in NFL history to throw for at least 240 yards with four touchdowns and zero interceptions in a debut game with a new team.
Boswell boots his way into Steelers' record book. The Steelers kicker drilled a 60-yard field goal with just over a minute left to provide the winning points in Pittsburgh's win over the Jets. It was the longest field goal of Boswell's career and the longest in franchise history.
Pete Carroll is beating Father Time. With the Raiders' 20-13 win over the Patriots, Carroll became the oldest coach in NFL history to win a game at 73 years and 357 days old (Carroll turns 74 on Sept. 15).
Jahmyr Gibbs makes unfortunate history. The Lions running back caught 10 passes for 31 yards against the Packers on Sunday, giving him the fewest yards in NFL history for a player who caught at least 10 passes in a game. Gibbs broke a record that was previously held by Alvin Kamara, who caught 10 passes for 33 yards in a game back in 2023.
Buccaneers rookie pulls off rare feat. Emeka Ebuka caught two touchdown passes in Tampa Bay's 23-20 win over the Falcons. His second TD came with just 59 seconds left, making him just the second player since 1970 to catch a game-winning TD in the final minute of his first career game. The only other time it happened came in 2004 when Ernest Wilford caught a 7-yard pass from Byron Leftwich on the final play of the game to give Jacksonville a 13-10 win over Buffalo.
Bengals win with no offense. The Bengals beat the Browns 17-16 despite putting up just 141 yards of offense. The win marked the first time in 55 years that the Bengals won a game where they were held under 150 yards. The Bengals had -18 yards in the fourth quarter, which was the fewest yards by an NFL team in a fourth quarter since at least 1991.
Giant disappointment. The Giants didn't score a touchdown in their 21-6 loss to the Commanders, marking the third straight year that they didn't score a TD in Week 1. This is the first time a team has gone without a TD for three straight openers since the Lions did it from 1940 thru 1942. The Giants are also the first team since the 2006-08 Raiders to lose three straight openers by at least 15 points.
Being the top pick isn't all it's crack up to be. Cam Ward was the 17th QB since 2003 to be taken with the No. 1 overall pick and if those quarterbacks all have something in common, it's that they always lose their first game. With the Titans' 20-12 loss to Denver, all quarterbacks who have been taken with the top pick over the past 22 years are now a combined 1-15-1 in their first career start.
Josh Jacobs scores again. The Packers running back scored a touchdown against Detroit, marking the 10th straight game that he's scored at least one rushing TD. That's the fourth-longest streak in NFL history, trailing only LaDainian Tomlinson (12 straight games in 2004), Jonathan Taylor (11 in 2021) and Priest Holmes (11 in 2002).
Stafford hits 60,000. The Rams QB threw for 245 yards against the Texans, which gives him 60,054 for his career. Stafford hit that number in 223 games, which is tied with Matt Ryan for the second-fastest to 60,000 in NFL history. Only Drew Brees, who reached the milestone in 215 games, did it faster. Stafford now has the 10th most passing yards in NFL history and assuming he stays healthy, he should pass Dan Marino (61,361) and Matt Ryan (62,792) in the coming months.
We got a scorigami. The Bills' win over the Ravens gave us the first 41-40 final score in the history of the NFL. It was the 1,092nd unique final score in the 106-year history of the league.

If you see any other fun facts, feel free to tweet them at me.

5. Monday night preview: Picks and best bets for Vikings at Bears

The first week of the NFL season will be coming to a close in Chicago with a battle of the unknowns. For the Vikings, J.J. McCarthy will be making his first career start after missing the entire 2024 season due to a knee injury. For the Bears, Ben Johnson will be making his head coaching debut after serving as Detroit's offensive coordinator for the past three seasons.

Jared Dubin put a preview together for this game, and here's how he sees the game playing out:

Why the Vikings can win: This is all going to come down to J.J. McCarthy. If he struggles in his first NFL start, then it's probably going to be a long night for the Vikings. One thing Minnesota will likely try to do early is establish the run. The Bears surrendered 4.8 yards per carry last season, which was tied for the second-worst number in the NFL. If Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason can move the ball on the ground, that will take a lot of pressure of McCarthy and open the door for him to have a big night.
Why the Bears can win: The Vikings gave up the fifth-fewest points in the NFL last year, but if there's one guy defensive coordinator Brian Flores couldn't figure out how to stop, it's Ben Johnson. The Vikings only surrendered 19.5 points per game in 2024, but the Lions managed to average 31 points per game while going 2-0 against Flores' defense. Basically, Johnson always seems to be one step ahead of Flores, so the Bears should be able to find some success on offense. The X factor is going to be Caleb Williams. If he hasn't quite learned Johnson's offense yet, it could be a long night for the Bears, but if he knows what he's doing, Chicago might light up the scoreboard.

You can get a full preview of the game from Dubin by clicking here.

If you're thinking about betting on the game, here are a couple of props (odds via BetMGM).

ONE RUSHING PROP I LIKE: Aaron Jones OVER 49.5 rushing yards (-115): With J.J. McCarthy making his first start, I feel like Kevin O'Connell will play it safe on offense by trying to get the Vikings' rushing attack going. In Sam Darnold's first start last year, Jones ran for 94 yards and although he might not hit that total tonight, getting to 50 yards definitely seems within his reach.
ONE KICKING PROP I LIKE: Will Reichard OVER 6.5 points (-140): The Vikings kicker closed out the 2024 season by scoring at least nine points in four straight games. Although some coaches are aggressive when they get into the opponent's territory, I don't think we'll see that from Kevin O'Connell tonight. Since it will be J.J. McCarthy's first start, I think the Vikings coach will be more than happy to take the points when the situation arises, which means Reichard should see plenty of work against Chicago.

And now, it's time for some picks.

PICKS FOR 'MNF'

Dubin's pick: Vikings 23-17 over Bears
My pick: Bears 22-19 over Vikings
Prisco's pick: Bears 27-21 over Vikings (Prisco is 13-2 with his picks this week)

Over on our CBSSports.com picks page, we are split down the middle with four of our eight experts taking the Bears and four taking the Vikings.

6. Extra points: Giants won't commit to Russell Wilson

It was a busy weekend in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you.

Brian Daboll makes no promises that Russell Wilson will remain starting QB. Following the Giants' 21-6 loss to the Commanders, Daboll was asked if Jaxson Dart would start next week and he ducked the question. "We're going to get home and look at our game," Daboll said. If Wilson was definitely going to start, then Daboll could have just slammed the door shut on a QB controversy by just saying that, but instead, it seems like he's going to give the QB job some thought heading into New York's Week 2 game against the Cowboys. You can read Daboll's full comments here.
Jameson Williams gets massive extension from Lions. The Lions receiver was given a three-year extension over the weekend that could be worth up to $83 million. Williams was only going into the fourth year of his five-year rookie deal, but the Lions decided to reward him early. Williams caught four passes for 23 yards in Detroit's 27-13 loss to Green Bay on Sunday. The Lions receiver is now under contract through 2029.
Browns finally sign Quinshon Judkins. With his legal woes behind him, Judkins finally signed his rookie contract with the Browns. The second-round pick is getting a fully guaranteed a four-year, $11.4 million deal. Heading into Week 1, Judkins was the only draft pick who still hadn't signed his rookie deal, but now, the entire 2025 class is under contract.
NFL headed to Rid De Janeiro. After playing in São Paulo for the past two years, the NFL is going to give a game to a different Brazilian city in 2026. CBS Sports NFL insider Jonathan Jones has reported that Rio de Janeiro will be hosting a game next season. You can read the full details here.