September storylines in MLB: Playoff races, Yordan Alvarez's Triple Crown pursuit, hot seats and more

The calendar has flipped to September and we are now in the final month of baseball's regular season. The postseason races and awards races will be decided over the next three weeks and five days, then we'll get into the month-long journey that is October baseball. I swear, it feels like the World Baseball Classic ended two weeks ago, but we're nearing the end of the season.

With that in mind, here are the top storylines as we enter September and the season's stretch run.

PCA vs. Ohtani

In what is the most hotly contested MVP race since, well, Aaron Judge vs. Cal Raleigh last season, Cubs star Pete Crow-Armstrong is putting together the kind of season needed to unseat the transcendent Shohei Ohtani. Ohtani is looking to join Barry Bonds as the only players with five MVPs (Bonds has seven) and four straight MVPs (Bonds won four from 2001-04).

Here is the MLB WAR leaderboard entering Monday's games:

1. Pete Crow-Armstrong: 9.3 WAR
2. Shohei Ohtani: 6.8 WAR (pitching and hitting)
3. Bobby Witt Jr.: 6.4 WAR
4. Yordan Alvarez: 5.8 WAR
5. Jacob Misiorowski: 5.7 WAR

There is more to MVP voting than WAR, but it does inform the voters, and PCA's lead is significant. They're comparable hitters at this point. Crow-Armstrong is the better baserunner and will give his team 1,300 innings or so of the best defense at any position in baseball. Ohtani has made 14 ace-caliber starts. How do you weigh PCA's glove vs. Ohtani's arm?

Due to knee and biceps injuries, Ohtani has not pitched since July 3, and his return to the mound was scuttled this past weekend. He has faced hitters in live batting practice in recent weeks, but he's not ready yet for MLB games. The longer Ohtani stays off the mound, the more the MVP pendulum swings Crow-Armstrong's way. Both are deserving, but only one can win.

PCA vs. Ohtani is the headline awards race, but it is not the only one going down to the wire. There's Dylan Cease vs. Cam Schlittler for American League Cy Young. Misiorowski vs. Chris Sale vs. Cristopher Sánchez for National League Cy Young. JJ Wetherholt vs. several players for NL Rookie of the Year. Kevin McGonigle as AL Rookie of the Year is the only take-it-to-the-bank award right now.

Alvarez's Triple Crown pursuit

Only one player, Miguel Cabrera in 2012, has won a Triple Crown in the last 59 years. Astros star Yordan Alvarez currently leads the AL in the three Triple Crown categories and he has a chance to win the MLB Triple Crown, not just for the AL. Ty Cobb (1909) and Mickey Mantle (1956) are the only MLB Triple Crown winners in baseball's Modern Era (since 1901).

Here's where Alvarez stands in the Triple Crown race:

Alvarez's Triple Crown chances took a hit in August, which was a down month for him, relatively speaking. He hit .287 in August with only two home runs and 12 RBI. That allowed Caminero to pull even for the AL home run lead, Alonso to gain ground in the AL RBI race, and Stewart to create some distance in the MLB RBI race.

The MLB Triple Crown is still within reach entering the season's final month, though the AL Triple Crown is much more likely at this point. A big September would certainly help Alvarez's Triple Crown chances (and thus his MVP chances) as well as Houston in the AL West race. The Astros sit atop the division despite playing .500-ish ball all season.

Can the Dodgers right the ship?

For all the talk about the Dodgers ruining baseball, they've been playing mediocre baseball for a while now. They're 21-22 and have been outscored by 11 runs in their last 43 games, and they scored only 104 runs in 27 games in August. That's a well-below-league-average 3.85 runs per game. Only six teams averaged fewer runs last month.

This, right here, is the problem. Look at these August numbers:

Tucker has not been anywhere near the player the Dodgers expected him to be nor the player he's been throughout his career. Betts and Hernández are in the "league-average hitter in his decline phase" stage of their careers, and while Freeman remains clutch and hits for a high average, his over-the-fence power has faded. He hasn't homered in 46 games, not since July 4.

Even Ohtani, as great as he's been overall, authored a .241/.322/.472 line with six homers in August. That's great for most players but well south of Ohtani's usual production. It could just be a down month -- it happens to even the best players -- though it's fair to wonder how much the knee and biceps issues have hampered Ohtani at the plate. He hasn't looked like himself lately.

Even with Ohtani's return to the mound up in the air, the Dodgers are fairly healthy in the rotation now that Tyler Glasnow and Blake Snell have returned. Edwin Díaz should be back soon from his neck injury, though his performance in 2026 has been outright bad. At least on paper, there are enough quality arms in place to cobble together a strong postseason pitching staff. 

The offense has not been fearsome for close to one-third of a season now. The Dodgers had a similar offensive dry spell last summer (4.07 runs per game from July 4 to Sept. 6) before figuring it out, and they have earned the benefit of the doubt as the two-time defending champions. We do need to see the turnaround at some point, though. We can't assume it'll happen forever.

Will a losing team make the postseason?

The third wild-card spot is very forgiving. So forgiving that a team with a losing record could make the postseason this year. In fact, two losing teams could make the postseason this year, such is the state of the AL West. Here are the AL West standings and the third AL wild-card race entering the season's final month:

The Astros made the 16-team postseason with a 29-31 record during the 60-game pandemic season in 2020. No team has reached the playoffs with a losing record in a full season. The 2005 Padres won the NL West with an 82-80 record. That stands as the worst record for a full-season postseason team and we could get two teams with a worse record in October this year.

Here's the kicker: The AL West winner and third wild card will meet in the Wild Card Series, barring something unexpected. If there are two losing teams in the postseason, they'll meet in the first round. It would be a bit of a farce, frankly. The bar for entry into the postseason is getting too low and rendering the long 162-game regular season increasingly meaningless.

Division and wild-card races

Other than the NL West, where the Dodgers hold a comfortable 10-game lead, and maybe the NL Central, where the Brewers are seven games up on the Cubs but with six head-to-head games remaining, the division races are fairly close and far from settled. Here's where things stand in the other divisions:

The Cubbies could make the NL Central interesting if they take care of business in their remaining head-to-head games with the Brewers. Otherwise, we have four interesting enough division races entering September. My eye is on that NL East race. The Phillies went an MLB best 21-7 in August, the Braves are beat up, and that's an awful lot of head-to-head games remaining.

The Yankees and Red Sox, and Cubs and Phillies, sit pretty comfortably in the top two wild-card spots in their respective leagues. The third wild-card races are tight, though. You see the AL race above. A losing team could get that third wild-card spot. In the NL, it's Diamondbacks vs. Padres for that third wild card unless the Cardinals or Marlins go on a major heater in September.

Arizona and San Diego have been in a virtual tie for the third wild-card berth the last few weeks and, fun, they'll play each other in the final series of the regular season. As a fan of baseball and postseason races, I hope the D-backs and Padres remain neck and neck, and those final three games at Petco Park turn into what amounts to a Play-In series for the third wild-card spot.

Misiorowski's historic season

The numbers are astounding: 1.73 ERA with 222 strikeouts in 151 innings. Only 35 walks too. Brewers ace Jacob Misiorowski is having one of the most dominant pitching seasons this century and, really, all-time. The sheer velocity is preposterous. Add in this level of strike-throwing and we've never seen anything like this. The combination of power and precision is historic.

Inside the fastest show in baseball: What it's like to watch Brewers sensation Jacob Misiorowski

Dayn Perry

Fastest pitches of Statcast era (since 2015)

1. Aroldis Chapman: 105.7 mph (July 18, 2016)
2. Jacob Misiorowski: 105.5 mph (June 26, 2026)
3. Ben Joyce: 105.5 mph (Sept. 3, 2024)  

Misiorowski is a starter, remember. Chapman and Joyce are relievers. In the Statcast era, Misiorowski has thrown the 97 fastest pitches recorded by a starting pitcher, all this season. The fastest by a starter other than Misiorowski is a 103.2 mph offering from Jordan Hicks back in 2022. The Miz has thrown 216 of the 220 fastest pitches by a starter on record. Again, preposterous.

Opponents are hitting .150 against Misiorowski this season, and that puts him on pace to set a new single-season record for a qualified pitcher, and not by a little, either. Excluding 2020, here are the lowest batting averages allowed by an AL/NL qualified pitcher in the Modern Era (since 1901):

1. Jacob Misiorowski: .150 in 2026
2. Pedro Martinez: .166 in 2000
3. Luis Tiant: .167 in 1968
4. Nolan Ryan: .168 in 1972
5. Nolan Ryan: .168 in 1991

Not that anyone needed a reminder, but seeing Nolan Ryan on that leaderboard with two seasons almost two decades apart shows his incredible longevity. Perhaps one day Misiorowski will join Ryan in Cooperstown. That conversation is a very, very, very long way off, though. For now, Misiorowski is having one of the most dominant pitching seasons in recent memory. It's historic, truly. 

Players returning from injuries

The headliner, of course, is Aaron Judge, the reigning two-time AL MVP and the engine that drives the Yankees. Judge has not played since May 31 due to a fractured rib and the Yankees have had one of baseball's worst offenses since. They've averaged only 4.06 runs per game since June 1, the sixth fewest in baseball, and that's even after scoring 16 runs this past Sunday.

Despite the lack of offense, the Yankees sit comfortably in the top wild-card spot and are in no danger of missing the postseason. They desperately need Judge to have a chance at a World Series run in October, though. Judge is progressing with his rehab work and murmurs are that he could return during the team's homestand that begins next Tuesday, though that is unconfirmed.

Other injured players who could return in September and make an impact in the postseason races include Garrett Crochet (Red Sox), Félix Bautista and Ryan Helsley (Orioles), Kyle Teel (White Sox), Carlos Correa (Astros), Griffin Jax (Rays), Corbin Burnes and Zac Gallen (D-backs), Robert Suarez (Braves), Joe Musgrove and Nick Pivetta (Padres), and Will Smith (Dodgers).

Fond farewells

Justin Verlander announced in July that this will be his final season. He has not pitched since March 30 due to hip and hamstring injuries, though he recently started throwing off a mound, and I have to think a farewell appearance is in the plans. Even just a one-inning appearance during the Tigers' final homestand during the last week of the season, similar to Charlie Morton's farewell last year.

Others currently in the big leagues who could -- but have not yet -- announce plans to hang up their spikes after the season include Craig Kimbrel, Paul Goldschmidt, Kenley Jansen, and Max Scherzer. Verlander will sail into the Hall of Fame on the first ballot. So will Scherzer when the time comes. The others will all warrant serious discussion when they reach the ballot, whenever that is.

Managerial and front office changes

Already this season, three teams have changed managers (Mets, Phillies, Red Sox) and three teams have fired their general manager (Athletics, Angels, Astros). More managerial and/or front office changes could be coming in September, particularly as we get down to the final few days of the season. That's often when these decisions are handed down, at least on the managerial side.

The Giants are sticking with manager Tony Vitello in 2027. We know that much. The Mariners stand out as a team with a potential for seismic change among their leadership. Unless they rally to reach the postseason, manager Dan Wilson and baseball operations head Jerry Dipoto could be replaced. Rarely do things remain status quo after a season as disappointing as Seattle's.

The Orioles, Pirates, Reds, and Tigers could also make changes at the manager level and/or in the front office, depending on how these last few weeks of the season play out.

CBA talks

Baseball's collective bargaining agreement expires at 11:59 p.m. ET on Dec. 1. MLB and the MLB Players Association have traded proposals over the last few weeks, and while the chances of an agreement prior to Dec. 1 are not zero, they're pretty darn small. It is a near certainty that MLB will lock out the players for the second time in five years when the clock strikes midnight.

The owners have proposed a salary cap, something the union steadfastly rejects, and nothing else matters until the cap situation is resolved. CBA talks will not begin in earnest until the owners drop the cap or the players agree to it. Nothing matters until the two sides get the money sorted out. That is true of every CBA negotiation, and especially this one. Everything else is secondary.

MLB and the MLBPA almost certainly will not agree to a new CBA in September, but will there be any movement whatsoever? Does the rhetoric change? Are there any signs of a compromise? The looming lockout has been a dark cloud hanging over this very fun and entertaining season, and, unfortunately, that will continue to be the case in September and October.