Earlier this week, the Major League Baseball trade deadline passed, and we're now left with, by and large, the rosters we'll see the rest of the season. As we look toward the final seven weeks of the regular season, how might the playoff races shake out?
Let's take a look.
Projected American League playoff field
1. Rays (AL East champs)
2. Guardians (AL Central champs)
3. Mariners (AL West champs)
4. Red Sox (wild card)
5. Yankees (wild card)
6. White Sox (wild card)
American League breakdown
AL East
The projection systems have had the Yankees most of the season, at some points significantly, but things have changed in recent weeks, with this now being a three-team race. Most systems have the Rays -- who have a 4½-game lead in the division entering Thursday -- winning the thing. They don't have a particularly difficult remaining schedule and are world-beaters at home. Plus, I liked their trade deadline, even if Freddy Peralta had a miserable first start. It was at Coors Field, and let's give the Rays a second with him.
AL Central
I still firmly believe the Tigers were gonna win this thing if they didn't quit -- and make no mistake, the front office absolutely quit. We're now left with a four-team race. I can't pick the Tigers on principle, even if it's still possible for them to win this thing. I still don't believe one iota in the Twins. I would love the White Sox -- who are in first place with a three-game lead on Thursday morning -- to win the division after the misery their fans just suffered through the past several years, but I'm being pulled toward the Guardians. Their recent history of always seeming to overachieve compared to how the roster looks on paper in addition to the easiest remaining schedule in the majors were big factors.
AL West
I've said for weeks that I was so heavy on the Mariners in spring training, in addition to the fact that no one else in the division has earned my confidence, that if the Mariners' ship is going down, I'm going down with it. I still don't believe in the Rangers and I have no confidence in the Astros' rotation -- plus, I think the Astros' recent hot streak was a mirage that is soon coming to a halt. The Mariners, who are currently third in the division behind Houston and Texas, are better than they've played all year and maybe that keeps up, but I'll take the talent. Their schedule in the next few weeks is brutal, but after that it's the easiest in the majors. In their final 22 games, they have seven each against the Angels and A's, along with three against the Rockies. The head-to-heads left for all three contenders will be huge, but I'm running with a September surge from the M's.
Wild Cards
The Yankees aren't confidence-inspiring on offense right now, but they're still a playoff team in this league. The Red Sox are a runaway train, and I wouldn't even be surprised if they win the East and end up with the top AL seed, but we'll keep them in the Wild Card Series. And I do think the White Sox continue to contend all season, so I'm taking them in the last spot.
As a reminder, the playoff seeds start with the division winners before getting to the Wild Cards. This means that even if the top three records in the AL come from the same division -- as I'm predicting here -- the second- and third-place teams have to be Wild Cards. Yes, I'm saying the Yankees end with the third-best AL record and have to play a road series in the Wild Card round.
Projected National League playoff field
1. Brewers (NL Central champs)
2. Dodgers (NL West champs)
3. Braves (NL East champs)
4. Cubs (wild card)
5. Phillies (wild card)
6. Padres (wild card)
National League breakdown
NL East
Even after the awful stretch from June up to the All-Star break, I stuck with the Braves here. Since the All-Star break, they've gone an NL-best 14-5. There will continue to be ebbs and flows, but the Phillies aren't good enough to run them down from this significant of a deficit (8½ games).
NL Central
I won't be surprised if the Cubs run them down, but the Brewers -- who carry a 5½-game lead into Thursday's slate -- are the best team in baseball at getting every ounce of production out of their players and will find a way. It probably won't even end up being close. In fact, I'll say they end up with baseball's best record. Again.
NL West
They've lost six straight games right now, a good illustration that they aren't quite as indescructable as many casual fans believe. Still, they'll have no trouble holding their lead in the NL West. Even with the skid, they have an eight-game lead over the Diamondbacks.
Wild Cards
Everything to me in this league is very easy until we get to the last spot here. That's why we've spent so many fewer words on the NL than the AL. The three division winner picks feel pretty firm, the Cubs in the four spot feel firm, and the Phillies are the best of the rest of the teams. Then we have the Diamondbacks, Pirates, Padres, Marlins and Cardinals. Each of these squads have had plenty of ups and downs. I'm inclined to eliminate the Marlins and Cardinals from the conversation right up front. With the other three, I could go any which way and nothing would surprise me.
Ultimately, I like the top three in the Padres rotation now after the deadline, in addition to their stellar bullpen and their untapped (at least this season) offensive upside. I'll also go with the Pirates losing out here by one game in a major gut punch.
Projected MLB playoff bracket
| American League | National League | |
|---|---|---|
No. 1 Rays, No. 2. Guardians | BYES | No. 1 Brewers, No. 2 Dodgers |
No. 3 Mariners vs. No. 6 White Sox | WC1 | No. 3 Braves vs. No. 6 Padres |
No. 4 Red Sox vs. No. 5 Yankees | WC2 | No. 4 Cubs vs. No. 5 Phillies |
