How and where to bet MLB player prop picks, odds for Aug. 16: Blake Snell among best bets for Saturday
The Inside the Lines team is up over 59 units on its nightly MLB home run bets and has also revealed its top MLB player props for Saturday
The Los Angeles Dodgers used a 3-2 win on Friday to move into a tie with the San Diego Padres atop the National League West standings, and they will meet for the second game of their critical series on Saturday night. San Diego finished with just two runs on Friday, and the Padres are facing Dodgers starting pitcher Blake Snell (2-1, 2.37 ERA) during the Saturday MLB schedule. Snell has only pitched 19 innings this season due to left shoulder issues, but he had 10 strikeouts across five scoreless innings against Toronto last Saturday. His over/under for strikeouts on Saturday is 5.5 in the latest MLB odds, and SportsLine's Inside the Lines team is going Over 5.5 with one of their top MLB prop bets on Saturday. If you're interested in MLB betting and wish to use the best sportsbook promos to wager on MLB props on Aug. 16, check out all available offers below:
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It enters Week 21 of the 2025 MLB season a profitable 31-23 on top-rated MLB money-line picks. It has excelled in making home run prop picks this season, returning over 59 units of profit. Anybody following its MLB betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns. Also, see the model's picks for Cubs vs. Pirates.
Best Saturday MLB player prop picks for Saturday, Aug. 16:
- Cal Raleigh, Mariners, Over 0.5 home runs (+230)
- Elly De La Cruz, Reds, Over 0.5 stolen bases (+350)
- Blake Snell, Dodgers, Over 5.5 strikeouts (-116)
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Best MLB player props on Saturday
For more real-time, free sportsbook picks every day: Inside the Lines Blog.
Cal Raleigh, Mariners, Over 0.5 home runs (+230)
Raleigh hit his major league-leading 46th home run of the season on Friday night, leading Seattle to an 11-9 win over the Mets. He became the first player in the majors to reach 100 RBIs this season, and he also hit his first double since June 27. Raleigh had been held hitless in his previous three games, but he got back on track with the 3-for-5 performance. He is expected to face Mets pitcher Nolan McLean, who is in line to make his MLB debut, and the model has Raleigh's home run line at +155. FanDuel has this prop at +230, and the latest FanDuel promo code gives new users $300 in bonus bets if your first $5 bet or more wins.
Elly De La Cruz, Reds, Over 0.5 stolen bases (+350)
De La Cruz scored twice in a loss to Milwaukee on Friday night, and he has six hits in his last five games. The star shortstop recorded his last stolen base against Pittsburgh on Sunday, giving him 31 stolen bases on 37 attempts this season. He is being offered at +350 to steal a base on Saturday, while the model has his implied odds at +228 to provide value at this price.
Blake Snell, Padres, Over 5.5 strikeouts (-116)
Snell has only pitched in two games since the beginning of April, but he showed strong signs in both of those outings. He had eight strikeouts across five innings against Tampa Bay on Aug. 2 before striking out 10 Toronto batters last weekend. The 32-year-old averaged 7.2 strikeouts per start last season, but the market is offering a lower over/under on Saturday due to his injury issues this year. He is striking out 6.24 batters in the model's simulations, making the Over a solid wager.
MLB Home Run, Stolen Base, Strikeout Cheat Sheet
The SportsLine Model was developed and is powered by the Inside the Lines team. You can find all of the team's picks and content at our blog, which has all our personal best bets for free. The system is simple. We take the strongest SportsLine Model projected values vs the best available prices at the time we publish our content. In most cases, lines move in 'our direction' so you should bookmark the blog, follow us on social, and make it a habit of checking for updates throughout the day to maximize your expected value.
The table below shows today's projected leading Home Run, Stolen Base and Strikeout Leaders. We include the projection and for HRs and SBs the money line we'd set for YES HR/SB. You can use this cheat sheet to compare it to your book's line and if your book's line is significantly higher than ours (and you like the player) then you would want to consider that bet
.Among today's starting pitchers the odds imply more Ks for Sonny Gray with a line of 6.5 and a best over of +110 at Fanatics, and the best under at -118 on FanDuel, than Blake Snell. Snell's line is 5.5 (-115o, +105u). Gray's line is up to 6.5 because he has 7 and 8 Ks in his last 2 starts, but even with these games he is averaging 6.2 (just 6 at home) with a 7-17 under 6.5 record this season. Snell also has good production in his last 2 starts with 10 and 8, but the fact that he has missed most of the season has the markets hesitating to set his line based on last season's 7.2 avg (12-8 over 5.5).
| RANK | HR | SB | K |
| 8/16 | PLAYER | HR PROJ | PROP LINE | PLAYER | SB PROJ | PROP LINE | STARTER | K PROJ |
| 1 | Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.392 | +155 | Jose Caballero (NYY) | 0.318 | +214 | Dylan Cease (SD) | 6.98 |
| 2 | Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.326 | +207 | Chandler Simpson (TB) | 0.315 | +217 | Blake Snell (LAD) | 6.24 |
| 3 | Manny Machado (SD) | 0.287 | +248 | Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.305 | +228 | Sonny Gray (STL) | 6.13 |
| 4 | Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.285 | +251 | Luis Robert (CHW) | 0.297 | +237 | Bryan Woo (SEA) | 5.92 |
| 5 | Riley Greene (DET) | 0.276 | +262 | Zach Neto (LAA) | 0.279 | +258 | Zebby Matthews (MIN) | 5.87 |
| 6 | Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.273 | +266 | Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | 0.265 | +277 | Rico Garcia (BAL) | 5.87 |
| 7 | Christian Yelich (MIL) | 0.267 | +275 | Bobby Witt (KC) | 0.257 | +289 | Max Fried (NYY) | 5.49 |
| 8 | Corey Seager (TEX) | 0.261 | +283 | Xavier Edwards (MIA) | 0.25 | +300 | Jason Alexander (HOU) | 5.16 |
| 9 | Eugenio Suarez (SEA) | 0.259 | +286 | Brice Turang (MIL) | 0.249 | +302 | Mike Burrows (PIT) | 5.01 |
| 10 | Mike Trout (LAA) | 0.248 | +303 | Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.244 | +310 | Cade Cavalli (WAS) | 4.97 |
| 11 | Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.247 | +305 | Ronald Acuna (ATL) | 0.243 | +312 | Joey Wentz (ATL) | 4.95 |
| 12 | Kyle Stowers (MIA) | 0.247 | +305 | Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.231 | +333 | Nolan McLean (NYM) | 4.94 |
| 13 | Kerry Carpenter (DET) | 0.245 | +308 | Corbin Carroll (ARI) | 0.23 | +335 | Eric Lauer (TOR) | 4.91 |
| 14 | Brent Rooker (ATH) | 0.239 | +318 | CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.229 | +337 | Brayan Bello (BOS) | 4.82 |
| 15 | Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.235 | +326 | Jasrado Chisholm (NYY) | 0.228 | +339 | Casey Mize (DET) | 4.75 |
| 16 | Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.234 | +327 | Ha-seong Kim (TB) | 0.225 | +344 | Adrian Houser (TB) | 4.74 |
| 17 | Corbin Carroll (ARI) | 0.233 | +329 | Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.223 | +348 | Ryne Nelson (ARI) | 4.7 |
| 18 | Ronald Acuna (ATL) | 0.228 | +339 | Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.219 | +357 | Shota Imanaga (CHC) | 4.68 |
| 19 | Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.222 | +350 | Maikel Garcia (KC) | 0.211 | +374 | Sean Burke (CHW) | 4.67 |
| 20 | George Springer (TOR) | 0.221 | +352 | Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.202 | +395 | Slade Cecconi (CLE) | 4.65 |
| ---- |
More MLB picks for Saturday
You've seen the model's MLB HR prop picks for several players on Saturday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
Need more from SportsLine? See today's best MLB picks from SportsLine's Bruce Marshall, who is on a 97-88-1 roll (+1573) on MLB picks.
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