Puka Nacua, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Zay Flowers and Michael Wilson all had career seasons in 2025. And they all had something in common. All of them were third-year receivers.
Parker Washington, mostly late in the season, and Tre Tucker were two other members of the Class of 2023 to see a spike in production. But Nacua (No. 1 Fantasy receiver), Smith-Njigba (No. 2), Flowers (No. 7) and Wilson (No. 10) were dominant.
Now, our goal is to see which receivers will stand out from the Class of 2024 and help Fantasy managers this season. And it's an impressive group, including Malik Nabers, Ladd McConkey, Rome Odunze, Marvin Harrison Jr. and Brian Thomas Jr., among others.
So why should you care about third-year receivers? We've seen rookies -- Nabers, McConkey and Thomas for example -- perform well, and second-year receivers also excel. And it's not a guarantee that all third-year receivers will break out.
But historically, some of the best receivers ever have had a breakout campaign in their third season in the NFL, including CeeDee Lamb, Michael Thomas, Tyreek Hill, Chris Godwin, Cooper Kupp, Mike Evans, Nico Collins, DeAndre Hopkins, T.Y. Hilton, Roddy White, Reggie Wayne, Terrell Owens, Keyshawn Johnson, Deebo Samuel, Drake London, Jerry Rice, Cris Carter and Steve Smith.
I talked to Rice, Carter and Smith over the years about third-year receivers, and Rice and Carter believe in the theory that receivers have a breakout season in Year 3. Rice scored a career-best 22 touchdowns in his third season in the NFL with San Francisco in 1987 -- in just 12 games.
Rice said his third year in the NFL is when he finally "felt comfortable." Along with his 22 touchdowns, he also added 65 catches for 1,078 yards, and he had clearly established himself as a superstar.
"You start feeling like you belong," Rice said. "The first year, you're like a deer in headlights. You're trying to get used to playing with all those great players. The second year, you feel more at home, but you're still making adjustments. The third year, for me, I finally knew what to do."
Carter had the first of his six seasons with double digits in touchdowns in his third year, scoring 11 in 1989 with Philadelphia. Like Rice, he said that Year 3 is important for wide receivers in their development.
"Wide receiver is a skill," Carter said. "It takes so much time, and there are so many things you have to learn. It takes three to five years to understand the position.
"Now, more people are throwing the ball and more colleges are throwing the ball so kids are coming into the league more ready to have breakout years. ... But there's still a learning curve. There are so many things you have to learn."
Smith, who had a breakout season in his third year in Carolina in 2003 with 88 catches for 1,110 yards and seven touchdowns, doesn't agree with the third-year theory. Smith said a wide receiver can have a breakout campaign in Year 1 or Year 2.
"People are looking for a reason or looking to cling on to something," Smith said. "I think that's a myth. If you have a good player and a baller there, that's going to happen, no matter what year it is."
The reason we like to discuss third-year receivers is this is the season when things start to click for players at the position. What guys like Rice and Carter told me is receivers have to learn how to hone their craft, develop a rapport with their quarterback and also understand defenses better.
Hopefully, it will all come together for several members of the Class of 2024. Let's break down this group, and I'm excited to draft several of these receivers on my Fantasy teams this season.
The Stars
These are guys you're drafting in the first six rounds in all leagues.
Malik Nabers
2024 stats: 109 catches, 1,204 yards, seven touchdowns, 170 targets
2025 stats: 18 catches, 271 yards, two touchdowns, 35 targets (4 games)
2026 SportsLine Projections: 74 catches, 998 yards, 11 touchdowns, 124 targets
When you should draft him: Round 3
Nabers is coming back from last year's torn ACL and meniscus tear in his right knee, and he appears on track to play in Week 1, which is awesome. His Average Draft Position might put him in Round 2, but I'm only going to draft him if available in Round 3. I'm hopeful he'll develop a solid rapport with Jaxson Dart -- Nabers injured his knee in Dart's first start in 2025 -- and the Giants added significant weapons this offseason in Isaiah Likely, Darnell Mooney and Malachi Fields. Nabers will still lead the Giants in targets if healthy, and I'm hopeful his third season will be his best to date. But given the severity of his injury, I'm still nervous that Nabers won't replicate the production from his rookie campaign. We might not see a third-year breakout from Nabers in 2026.
Ladd McConkey
2024 stats: 82 catches, 1,149 yards, seven touchdowns, 112 targets
2025 stats: 66 catches, 789 yards, six touchdowns, 106 targets
2026 SportsLine Projections: 82 catches, 1,035 yards, eight touchdowns, 126 targets
When you should draft him: Round 4
I wouldn't be opposed to drafting McConkey in Round 3, and he should have a breakout season in 2026. He struggled in 2025 with the addition of Keenan Allen, but Allen is gone with no significant additions to the receiving corps in Los Angeles. And I love that Mike McDaniel is now the Chargers' offensive coordinator. McDaniel should help create favorable matchups for McConkey and allow his route-running ability to flourish. Justin Herbert should continue to lean on McConkey as the No. 1 receiver for the Chargers, and he should have a better season than what we saw in his rookie campaign when he averaged 15.1 PPR points per game. McConkey should be one of the breakout third-year receivers in this class.
Rome Odunze
2024 stats: 54 catches, 734 yards, three touchdowns, 101 targets
2025 stats: 44 catches, 661 yards, six touchdowns, 90 targets (12 games)
2026 SportsLine Projections: 66 catches, 971 yards, nine touchdowns, 132 targets
When you should draft him: Round 5
Odunze was having a second-year breakout in 2025 before a foot injury cost him the final five games of the regular season. He feels great heading into 2026, and his Fantasy value could skyrocket if Luther Burden III (groin) is forced to miss any time in the regular season after getting hurt in training camp. Odunze can still be productive alongside Burden and tight end Colston Loveland, especially if Odunze performs like he did to start 2025. He scored at least 15.2 PPR points in each of his first four games and in six of his first nine outings. Most likely, he'll be third on the Bears in targets if everyone is healthy, but Odunze still offers top-20 upside and could lead Chicago in touchdowns. I love drafting Odunze as a low-end No. 2 Fantasy receiver in Round 5, and I would reach for him in Round 4 if Burden's injury lingers.
Brian Thomas Jr.
2024 stats: 87 catches, 1,282 yards, 10 touchdowns, 133 targets
2025 stats: 48 catches, 707 yards, two touchdowns, 91 targets (14 games)
2026 SportsLine Projections: 60 catches, 931 yards, six touchdowns, 105 targets
When you should draft him: Round 6
Thomas went from stud as a rookie to dud as a sophomore in what was a disastrous second year in 2025. There's plenty of bounce-back potential in Year 3, and he's having a strong training camp after a productive offseason, according to almost every report out of Jacksonville. The concern for Thomas is a crowded receiving corps for the Jaguars, which features Parker Washington, Jakobi Meyers and Travis Hunter, as well as tight end Brenton Strange. If Thomas is back to his rookie form, he could easily be the best of the bunch, but that's an unrealistic expectation after what we just witnessed. I expect Thomas to make plenty of splash plays, but Washington should lead the team in targets. It's easy to take a chance on Thomas in Round 6 or even late in Round 5 depending on the league, but treat him more like a low-end No. 2 Fantasy receiver as opposed to a must-start option in all formats.
Marvin Harrison Jr.
2024 stats: 62 catches, 885 yards, eight touchdowns, 116 targets
2025 stats: 41 catches, 608 yards, four touchdowns, 73 targets (12 games)
2026 SportsLine Projections: 69 catches, 947 yards, seven touchdowns, 125 targets
When you should draft him: Round 6
Harrison has been a disappointment through the first two seasons of his career after being the first receiver selected in this draft class at No. 4 overall. But I'm hopeful that Year 3 will be his breakout season, and he did well in a small sample size with Jacoby Brissett in 2025. There were four games where Harrison played at least 61 percent of the snaps with Brissett, and Harrison scored at least 12.9 PPR points in three of those outings while averaging 14.4 PPR points per game over that span. Harrison also averaged 8.8 targets per game in those four outings. Harrison has 12 games in his career with at least seven targets, and he scored at least 14.3 PPR points in eight of them while averaging 16.1 PPR points per game over that span. He still shares the field with Trey McBride and Wilson, and the Cardinals could go from Brissett to Carson Beck at some point in the season to see if the rookie quarterback is part of their future. But I'm willing to bet on Harrison at his cost in Round 6, and this should be his best season to date.
Mid- to Late-Round Picks
These are guys you're drafting as reserves on your roster.
Xavier Worthy
2024 stats: 59 catches, 638 yards, six touchdowns, 98 targets
2025 stats: 42 catches, 532 yards, one touchdown, 73 targets (14 games)
2026 SportsLine Projections: 53 catches, 642 yards, four touchdowns, 88 targets
When you should draft him: Round 10
It's hard to get excited about Worthy when Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce are healthy and active, and rookie Cyrus Allen is having a strong training camp. Worthy has also missed practice time in training camp with a shoulder injury, and that's not going to help his Fantasy stock. Additionally, Patrick Mahomes (knee) is coming back from a serious injury, and the Chiefs are expected to be more run-heavy this season with the addition of Kenneth Walker III. I don't have a problem taking a late-round flier on Worthy, who averaged 11.0 PPR points per game as a rookie, but I have minimal expectations for him, especially if he remains on the sidelines in training camp. Hopefully, he can be a surprise Fantasy option as the season goes on.
Jalen McMillan
2024 stats: 37 catches, 461 yards, eight touchdowns, 58 targets (13 games)
2025 stats: 12 catches, 178 yards, no touchdowns, 15 targets (4 games)
2026 SportsLine Projections: 46 catches, 625 yards, four touchdowns, 66 targets
When you should draft him: Round 12
McMillan has missed time in training camp due to a knee injury, which isn't ideal. He was limited to four games in 2025 because of a neck injury, and we want to see him on the field. At best, he'll be the No. 3 receiver in Tampa Bay behind Emeka Egbuka and Chris Godwin, but McMillan could fall to fourth on the depth chart behind rookie Ted Hurst. I would love to see McMillan in an expanded role, and he thrived as a rookie in 2024 when Godwin and Mike Evans were injured. In his final five games in the regular season, McMillan scored at least 16.7 PPR points in each outing and had seven touchdowns over that span. For his career, McMillan has eight games with at least five targets, and he has averaged 16.5 PPR points over that span. He's a great late-round flier if healthy, and hopefully he'll be at least the No. 3 receiver for the Buccaneers in Week 1.
Malik Washington
2024 stats: 26 catches, 223 yards, no touchdowns, 36 targets (14 games)
2025 stats: 46 catches, 317 yards, three touchdowns, 65 targets
2026 SportsLine Projections: 46 catches, 349 yards, three touchdowns, 65 targets
When you should draft him: Round 13
The Dolphins lost Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle from last season, and Washington could emerge as the No. 1 receiver this year. I'd rather see Caleb Douglas or Chris Bell (knee) if healthy atop the depth chart, but Washington should play a prominent role this season. He hasn't done much so far in his young career, but playing behind Hill and Waddle wasn't ideal. Now, he has a fresh canvas to establish a rapport with new quarterback Malik Willis. You shouldn't have high expectations for Washington, but there's an opportunity for him to produce in Miami this season. He's an easy receiver to stash on your bench with a late-round pick in all leagues.
Deep-League Options
These are guys who could get drafted in deeper formats.
Adonai Mitchell
2024 stats: 23 catches, 312 yards, no touchdowns, 55 targets
2025 stats: 33 catches, 453 yards, two touchdowns, 74 targets
2026 SportsLine Projections: 31 catches, 365 yards, two touchdowns, 61 targets
When you should draft him: Free Agent/Waiver Wire
Mitchell appears locked into the No. 2 receiver role for the Jets entering the season, which is important. New York spent a first-round pick in this year's NFL Draft on rookie receiver Omar Cooper Jr., but Mitchell has outplayed Cooper in training camp. Mitchell had some big performances with the Jets in 2025 after joining the team in the Sauce Gardner trade from the Colts, including two outings with at least 17.4 PPR points in eight games. Garrett Wilson (knee) was injured during that stretch, but he's healthy now. And the Jets have a new quarterback in Geno Smith. I don't expect Mitchell to get selected in most redraft leagues, but he could be a quality waiver-wire addition during the season if he proves to be a solid complement to Wilson.
Keon Coleman
2024 stats: 29 catches, 556 yards, four touchdowns, 57 targets (13 games)
2025 stats: 38 catches, 404 yards, four touchdowns, 59 targets (13 games)
2026 SportsLine Projections: 21 catches, 270 yards, three touchdowns, 36 targets
When you should draft him: Free Agent/Waiver Wire
It's disappointing that Coleman is in this category, but it's hard for Fantasy managers to trust him after what happened in 2025. It started out great with 25.2 PPR points in Game 1 at Baltimore, but then he averaged 6.4 PPR points per game from Weeks 2-18. D.J. Moore was added this offseason, and Coleman will likely be fourth on the team in targets behind Moore, Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid. Coleman could still make his share of big plays, but it's hard to expect consistent production if everyone stays healthy. At best, you can add Coleman off the waiver wire in redraft leagues.
Ryan Flournoy
2024 stats: 10 catches, 102 yards, no touchdowns, 14 targets (11 games)
2025 stats: 40 catches, 475 yards, four touchdowns, 56 targets
2026 SportsLine Projections: 29 catches, 336 yards, three touchdowns, 40 targets
When you should draft him: Free Agent/Waiver Wire
It will be hard for Flournoy to be a consistent Fantasy option when CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens are healthy, but the Cowboys are excited about Flournoy in his third season. That said, when you include tight end Jake Ferguson, there aren't enough targets to go around. Flournoy should be considered a receiver handcuff because if Lamb or Pickens were to miss any time then Flournoy would likely be considered a starter in three-receiver leagues. I don't expect him to get selected in most redraft leagues, but he could be a popular waiver-wire addition during the season.
Others to monitor
These guys aren't getting drafted but could be waiver-wire options if an injury occurs.
