Every Fantasy analyst would like to give you the same advice after Week 1: Don't overreact. Weird things happen every week in Fantasy Football. It seems more important when it is the only information we have, but often it is not. At the quarterback position, that seems particularly relevant right now. Nine of my top 12 QBs from Week 1 are top 12 QBs in my early Week 2 projections. One of the three that fell out is Kyler Murray, because we aren't projecting him to play after his Week 2 concussion. The other two are Joe Burrow and Jared Goff, who are tied for 13th and well ahead of any potential streaming options. In other words, there is a very good chance you should start the guy you started last week.
This can be more difficult when both the QB and the team disappoint in spectacular fashion. Dak Prescott and Justin Herbert were both supposed to lead high-powered offenses; they were both favored in Week 1, and they both got embarrassed. And I am going right back to them in Week 2.
Prescott is an easier argument to make. We expected this Commanders defense to be one to target for Fantasy Football and Jalen Hurts just threw three touchdown passes against them and scored 30 Fantasy points. In two games against the Commanders last year, Prescott threw for 571 yards and five touchdowns. I expect George Pickens to clean up his drops and the Cowboys to put up a big number in Week 2. If they don't, I might start to get worried.
Herbert's performance was more discouraging, and he could be without Ladd McConkey, but I am going back to him against the Raiders in Week 2. A big part of his problem last week was the fact that the defense couldn't get off the field against Jacoby Brissett and the Cardinals. It's possible we underrated that offense, and despite their Week 1 win, I don't think the Raiders are as likely to dominate possession like Arizona did. If McConkey is out, I would expect Mike McDaniel to get Omarion Hampton and Keaton Mitchell more involved in the passing game and to get Hebert some more easy-button throws. That keeps him inside my top 10 and well ahead of any streaming options.
If you started Murray last week and need a streamer, or if you fear Trevor Lawrence against the Broncos, I have streaming options for you below.
Let's get to the rest of the preview:
Week 2 QB Preview
Numbers to know
- 2.97 -- Trevor Lawrence had nearly three seconds before he felt pressure in Week 1. Do not expect that much time in Week 2 against the Broncos.
- 0.65 -- Jaxson Dart tied Trevor Lawrence for the highest EPA/DB in Week 1. We don't want to start him against the Rams, but the whole operation looked much more professional in Week 1.
- 36.4% -- Patrick Mahomes' 36.4% scramble rate was the fifth highest in Week 1. I would say the knee is doing just fine.
- 22.2% -- Malik Willis had the second-highest off-target rate in Week 1. He will have to clean that up to become a streamer with these weapons.
- 4 -- Dak Prescott led all QBs with four dropped passes last week. He'll be fine.
- 51.5% -- Bo Nix was pressured on 51.5% of his dropbacks. The offensive line was supposed to be a strength for the Broncos; they'll need to be much better against Jacksonville.
- 65 -- Caleb Williams led all QBs with 65 rushing yards, the second-highest total of his career.
- 15 -- Bryce Young led all QBs with 15 completions of more than 10 yards. We'll find out in Week 2 if that said more about Young or the Bears defense.
- 76.1% -- Jordan Love had a 76.1% true dropback rate, the fifth-highest mark in Week 1. Their inability to run the ball could lead to a career high in pass attempts for Love.
Waiver Wire Targets
There is not a streaming option in my top 18 at QB this week, so hopefully you don't need one. But if you need to replace Kyler Murray, Stroud is my favorite option. He scored 20.5 Fantasy points last week and could be in another shootout with the Bengals in Week 2. While David Montgomery had a great Fantasy day due to his touchdowns, the Texans' run game was not very efficient, with just 102 yards from the running backs on 29 carries (3.5 YPC). I would not be surprised to see another 35 attempt game from Stroud.
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If we were overreacting to Week 1, it would be in favor of Bryce Young. He averaged nearly 10 yards per pass attempt and his defense gave up 59 points. That is the recipe for a breakout year at QB if I have ever seen one. Yes, it's just one game, but with Tetairoa McMillan, Jalen Cooker, and Darren Waller, Young may have his best trio of pass catchers yet. If you don't need to start him, you should at least consider stashing him. The Panthers play the Browns in Week 3 and the Lions in Week 4.
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I was really hoping we would get more positive data from Week 1 against the Raiders for Malik Willis. He wasn't as sharp as he was last year in Green Bay, and now he has a three-week stretch against the 49ers, Chiefs, and Vikings before the schedule turns more favorable. So Willis is more likely to be dropped than added in the next three weeks. Still, he gave us 9.9 Fantasy points on the ground and Caleb Douglas flashed in his first start. I am hopeful the Dolphins clean things up over the next few weeks and Willis has some big Fantasy days in his future I would still like to stash him where I can, few Fantasy backups have more upside.
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DFS Plays
On a slate with no Josh Allen, Jared Goff, Patrick Mahomes, Jaxson Dart, Matthew Stafford or Maye is still not one of the top 10 QBs by Week 2 price. That seems like an overreaction to a bad Week 1 performance and the loss of A.J. Brown. Maye projects as my QB6 on the slate and he is within a point of QB6. The Steelers defense is good, but not nearly as good as it looked against Cooper Rush, especially if Joey Porter remains out. Buy the dip in Maye's price.
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I expect Tampa wants to get the pass game back on track and the Browns look like the defense to do that against. Mayfield plays best with a chip on his shoulder, and after his fumbling issue last week, I expect he has a large chip against his former team. I still think Maye is a better projected value than Mayfield, but Mayfield should have the lower roster rate and may have just as much upside.
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Heath's projections
My full set of Week 2 Fantasy football projections for every position is here. Find out which of my favorite plays are projected to score higher than consensus rankings and which don't live up to their draft hype, at least in Week 2. Projected stats for all starting quarterbacks are available and will be updated throughout the week as I make changes.
