Fantasy Football Week 12 Start 'Em & Sit 'Em Quarterbacks: Matthew Stafford gets back on track in a big way
Quarterbacks you want in Week 12 lineups, and those you should avoid
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1 min read
Patrick Mahomes comes into Week 12 against Indianapolis having scored 15.3 Fantasy points or less in each of his past two games against Buffalo and Denver. But he should get back on track against the Colts.
Mahomes was bad against the Bills in Week 9 and the Broncos in Week 11, but those were two tough opponents on the road. At home, Mahomes has scored at least 24.1 Fantasy points in each outing, and he should do well against Indianapolis.
The Colts have struggled against every quality quarterback they have faced this season, including Bo Nix (26.2 Fantasy points), Matthew Stafford (33.4), Jacoby Brissett (24.7) and Justin Herbert (33.9). Mahomes should follow suit, and he's a top-five quarterback in the majority of leagues for Week 12.
QBs to Start
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Stafford snapped his three-game streak of scoring at least 34.8 Fantasy points in Week 11 against Seattle when he had 17.2. I expect him to get back on track in Week 12 against the Buccaneers, who just allowed Drake Maye and Josh Allen to combine for 70.7 Fantasy points in the past two games. Prior to facing the Seahawks, Stafford scored at least 31.6 Fantasy points in three consecutive home games, and Tampa Bay's defense should struggle to contain the Rams passing attack in this matchup.
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Brissett comes into Week 12 having scored at least 23.4 Fantasy points in five games in a row since taking over for Kyler Murray (foot) in Week 6. He's attempted at least 44 passes in three of those games, and he has two outings with at least 320 yards. This week, Brissett faces a Jaguars defense that has allowed at least 21.7 Fantasy points to six of their past seven opposing quarterbacks, including four guys scoring at least 28.7 points. I like Brissett as a top-10 Fantasy quarterback in all leagues in Week 12.
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Purdy looked great in his return from a six-game absence with a toe injury in Week 11 at Arizona with 25.3 Fantasy points on 19-of-26 passing for 200 yards and three touchdowns. He's now scored at least 20.8 Fantasy points in all three starts that he's made this season, and he should have another solid outing against the Panthers. Carolina is No. 11 in fewest Fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks, but Drake Maye, Tua Tagovailoa, Dak Prescott and Josh Allen all scored at least 26.1 Fantasy points against the Panthers. Purdy should follow suit, and he has top-10 upside in all leagues.
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Prescott only scored 7.8 Fantasy points at Philadelphia in Week 1, and the Eagles have limited Jordan Love and Jared Goff to a combined 21.9 Fantasy points in the past two weeks. This is a tough defense, but Prescott has scored at least 26.1 Fantasy points in three of four home games this season. He also scored at least 21.9 Fantasy points against Philadelphia in five games in a row prior Week 1, and Prescott is averaging 27.3 Fantasy points against the Eagles in his past three meetings against them in Dallas. I trust Prescott as a No. 1 Fantasy quarterback in all leagues.
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Mayfield is coming off a down game at Buffalo with just 18.8 Fantasy points, and he's been under 20 points in three of his past four games, all on the road. The Rams also just held Sam Darnold to 4.3 Fantasy points and rank No. 6 in fewest Fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks. So why are we starting Mayfield? He has done well in tough matchups this season at Houston (23.9), vs. Philadelphia (22.9), at Seattle (30.7) and vs. New England (28.9), and this feels like a shootout between Mayfield and Matthew Stafford. I'm still going to trust Mayfield as a No. 1 quarterback in this game.
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Sleepers (Start/Sit)
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Flacco won't have Ja'Marr Chase (suspended) in this game, and this could be Flacco's last start if Joe Burrow (toe) returns in Week 13. But I expect Flacco to perform like a low-end No. 1 quarterback in Week 12, and he scored at least 28.3 Fantasy points in three home games for the Bengals. The Patriots have also allowed three quarterbacks in a row (Michael Penix Jr., Baker Mayfield and Justin Fields) to score at least 21.3 Fantasy points, and the only quarterbacks who have failed to score at least 20.6 Fantasy points against New England this season are Geno Smith, Aaron Rodgers, Spencer Rattler, Cam Ward and Dillon Gabriel. Flacco, even without Chase, should still be productive in this game.
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I thought Darnold would struggle in Week 11 at the Rams, but he was worse than expected with only 4.3 Fantasy points, which included four interceptions. He's scored 10.6 Fantasy points or less in three of his past four games, but those bad outings were against tough opponents in Houston, Arizona and the Rams. This week, Darnold plays a Titans defense that has allowed three of the past four opposing quarterbacks to score at least 27.4 Fantasy points. Darnold should get back on track in this matchup, and he's worth using as a low-end No. 1 quarterback in all leagues.
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This could be Jaxson Dart (concussion) in this spot if he's cleared to play, so check back here before setting your lineup. For Winston, I expect the Giants to be chasing points at Detroit, and he should attempt more than the 29 passes he had in Week 11 against Green Bay. Four of the past six quarterbacks against the Lions have scored at least 22.7 Fantasy points, and Winston should be considered a low-end Fantasy starter in deeper leagues if he starts again for the Giants in Week 12.
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QBs to Sit
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The Vikings defense got back on track in the past two games against Lamar Jackson and Caleb Williams, and that duo combined for just 28.9 Fantasy points, which included only one passing touchdown and each quarterback throwing for less than 200 yards. Love scored 21.7 Fantasy points at the Giants in Week 11, but prior to that, he combined for 16.8 Fantasy points in two games against Carolina and Philadelphia. Love is also averaging just 15.7 Fantasy points in five home games this season, and he should only be started in Superflex and two-quarterback leagues in Week 12.
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Jones went into his bye in Week 11 having scored 17.5 Fantasy points or less in consecutive games against the Steelers and Falcons. He had four interceptions, three fumbles and was sacked 12 times over that span. Jones is also averaging just 18.0 Fantasy points in five games this season outside of Indianapolis. And in five home games this season, the Chiefs have done well against Jalen Hurts (11.5 Fantasy points), Lamar Jackson (12.7), Jared Goff (20.8), Geno Smith (2.8) and Marcus Mariota (13.3). Jones should only be started in Superflex and two-quarterback leagues.
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Lawrence scored 17 Fantasy points in Week 11 against the Chargers, and he's now been under 20 Fantasy points in three of his past four games. We'll see if Brian Thomas Jr. (ankle) and Brenton Strange (hip) play for the Jaguars in Week 12, but this is a tough matchup against the Cardinals. Arizona is No. 7 in fewest Fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks, and the only guys with more than 20 points against the Cardinals were Bryce Young, Daniel Jones and Brock Purdy, which also includes matchups against Sam Darnold twice, Jordan Love and Dak Prescott. I would only start Lawrence in Superflex and two-quarterback leagues in Week 12.
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Bust Alert (Start/Sit)
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Williams struggled in Week 11 at Minnesota with just 10.3 Fantasy points, and it was the third time in his past five games where he failed to score a touchdown. The Steelers defense has also improved greatly of late in holding Daniel Jones, Justin Herbert and Joe Flacco to 16.7 Fantasy points or less in three games in a row. Williams will hopefully be productive enough to be trusted as a low-end starter in the majority of leagues, but I would sit him if you can. Pittsburgh's defense will harass Williams enough to where he should have another down game in Week 12. I would prefer to start him in just Superflex and two-quarterback leagues in this matchup.
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