Fantasy football rankings Week 10: Dave Richard's tough start/sit calls clear up your toughest flex decisions

It's Week 10 of the NFL season, and for your Fantasy football squads, this is a pivotal week. With more teams on bye and major injuries to starting quarterbacks around the NFL, the fringe plays are now more mainstream and for good reason. Your stat/sit decisons have just gotten a lot more difficult and the matchups play an even more important role now than ever.

That's where Dave Richard's Week 10 matchup breakdown comes in. From defensive coverages and pass-rush pressure to backfield workloads and target distribution, we'll examine the factors that matter most to help you identify trustworthy starters, avoid potential disappointments and make the best possible lineup decisions.

Dave Richard's Week 10 rankings: Top 150 | QB | RB | WR | TE | K | DST

Stefon Diggs' playing time hasn't really changed since Terry McLaurin's injury, and he's still been a slot-heavy receiver who is targeted almost exclusively on short routes. However, he and Jayden Daniels have their timing down, as evidenced by his touchdown two weeks ago and a big play last week. Decent target volume is crucial for Diggs against a Giants defense that has improved every week but nickel cornerback Dru Phillips has been up and down all year. Washington's depleted run game plus a competitive matchup should equal north of 32 pass attempts for Daniels, which should put Diggs at a minimum of six targets. He's safe as a No. 3 PPR receiver with some upside to surprise with a good week; Diggs has at least 12.8 PPR points in two of his past three.

It's a lack of other reliable running backs that will push you to consider White for Fantasy use in Week 10. He's not close to a full-time back, as he has eight or fewer carries in all but one game this year and doesn't have a game with more than 13 touches. He's also touchdown-dependent -- three of his four double-digit PPR weeks have involved a score. White also ceded the team's lone snap inside the 10-yard line to Austin Ekeler last week and has just 17 snaps and six touches inside the 10 this season (but three touchdowns). Any running back with a better profile, either in terms of workload or explosiveness, is a better pick than White. New York's run defense has looked sharp the past two weeks against Houston and Philly's inferior run games. 

• MUST-START: Malik Nabers
• START: Jayden Daniels, Isaiah Likely, Cam Skattebo, Rachaad White (borderline No. 2 RB), Giants DST
• FLEX: Stefon Diggs
• SIT: J.J. McCarthy, Chig Okonkwo (high-end No. 2 PPR TE), Antonio Williams, Van Jefferson, Malachi Fields, Austin Ekeler, Darnell Mooney, Devin Singletary, Commanders DST 

I hesitate to say Demario Douglas has become a go-to guy for Drake Maye since he has just three games with six-plus targets, but in each of the Pats' past three games without A.J. Brown, Douglas has at least 15.2 PPR points. The shifty slot receiver not only picks up short throws from Maye but also has connected on 5 of 9 passes of 10-plus air yards in those three Brown-less games. That's roughly half of the overall targets Douglas has gotten from Maye in those matchups. And it's not just Brown who's expected to be out -- Rhamondre Stevenson is also, opening the door for the Patriots to potentially throw a little more than they'd like since they're down to Corey Kiner, Lan Larison and Terrell Jennings at running back. Plus, any offensive line issues will force Maye to get the ball out faster, which can help Douglas pick up more targets. Detroit's pass defense against slot receivers has improved over its past four games just as its overall defense has, but it's been on low pass volume (four targets seen to slot WRs in each of their past two games). It's not a matchup to fear, and it's a good spot for Douglas to keep contributing.

A week ago I shared that Jameson Williams was drawing better target numbers than Sam LaPorta in part because LaPorta had been more of a blocker, chipper and check-down option. He'll always do a bunch of that, but last week at Miami was more like the LaPorta we want to see: Between 15 routes on second-and-long and third downs, LaPorta chipped 4 times, blocked once on a designed screen, and lined up away from the O-line 10 times. Sadly, it did not mean a sizable increase in targets, as he had five, marking the fifth time in his past six where he's had that many or fewer targets. The Patriots gave up big games to Brock Bowers and Colston Loveland this season -- both of whom had double-digit targets. Everyone else they've faced had under 8.5 full PPR points and six or fewer targets. Compare that to how wide receivers, especially fast ones, did against the Patriots in 2026, and you can probably imagine where the Lions will aim to attack their opponent this week. I'd be especially concerned about LaPorta having to block and chip a little more against a Patriots pass rush that's nabbed an 8.3% or higher sack rate in each of its past four games. It's hard to sit LaPorta, especially knowing he figures to be involved in a high-scoring game, but his role just isn't as good as it once was.

• MUST-START: Drake Maye, Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown
• START: Jared Goff, Jameson Williams, Demario Douglas, Hunter Henry, Sam LaPorta (borderline TE)
• FLEX: Mack Hollins, Corey Kiner (non-PPR flex and high-end No. 3 RB)
• SIT: Efton Chism III, Eli Raridon, Lan Larison, Lions DST, Patriots DST 

While Kyle Pitts' role in the Falcons hasn't changed one bit over the past few weeks, the Falcons' red zone offense has. You can't blame them for becoming more run-heavy near the end zone (at least a 50% rush rate) when they have Bijan Robinson. Pair that with Pitts seeing seven targets of 10-plus air yards all season -- and two in his past four games -- and it makes for a cloudy outlook. If Pitts isn't scoring, his Fantasy totals are pretty much going to be what they've been all year: 7.7 or fewer PPR points. Kansas City has allowed two red-zone touchdowns to tight ends this season, with Tyler Warren the only big-name tight end to do it.

• MUST-START: Kenneth Walker III, Bijan Robinson
• START: Patrick Mahomes, Drake London, Rashee Rice, Travis Kelce, Chiefs DST 
• SIT: Michael Penix Jr., Kyle Pitts (high-end No. 2 TE), Josh Downs, Emmett Johnson, Jahan Dotson, Cyrus Allen, Khalil Herbert, Falcons DST

The Texans came out of their bye and ripped the Chargers thanks to the deepest receiving corps they've ever given C.J. Stroud. Nico Collins' target volume isn't what it used to be but he's changing directions and accelerating extremely well. Tank Dell's nine targets last week were a surprise, especially as seven of them were downfield throws. The low-key winner was Xavier Hutchinson, who worked almost exclusively out of the slot, rarely left the field, and had almost the same kind of quickness and acceleration as Collins. Tack on C.J. Stroud playing at a high level and the Texans' run game among the NFL's least efficient units, and you've got a squad we can lean into for Fantasy. The Browns have been the heaviest man-to-man coverage defense through nine weeks. When facing man coverage, it's actually Hutchinson who has the highest target-per-route run rate (37.2%!) and the highest yards-per-route run among receivers (2.37). He's even better specifically against Cover-1 defenses (39.3% target rate, 3.14 yards per route run). That makes him an easy low-end flex to start, just like Dell is, since he has the wheels to win against a single cornerback.

• MUST-START: Nico Collins (No. 2 WR)
• START: C.J. Stroud, Denzel Boston (low-end No. 2 WR), Harold Fannin Jr., Woody Marks (borderline No. 2/3 PPR RB), Texans DST
• FLEX: Tank Dell, Xavier Hutchinson, KC Concepcion (PPR), Quinshon Judkins (low-end non-PPR flex)
• SIT: Deshaun Watson, Dylan Sampson (bye-week PPR RB), Dalton Schultz, Kayshon Boutte, Marvin Harrison Jr., Jerry Jeudy, Browns DST

Marvin Harrison Jr.'s high-school QB, Kyle McCord, will now run Miami's West Coast offense against a beleaguered Colts defense. In my 2025 scouting report on McCord, I noted his good accuracy and solid mechanics, but also a lack of arm strength, limited experience making full-field reads, and inconsistent ability to diagnose pass-rush pressure. McCord did complete nearly 66% of his preseason throws for 6.4 yards per attempt and four scores, getting the ball out quickly (2.54-second average). I would expect the Dolphins to try and make things easy for him with quick-game throws; Malik Washington (31%) and Caleb Douglas (24.4%) lead the Dolphins in target-per-route rates on throws under 2.5 seconds and should be on-call here. I just might not expect their targets to be consistently precise. The Colts had their lowest blitz rate against rookie Athan Kaliakmanis back in Week 4, so I doubt Lou Anarumo unleashes his pass rush any more than normal. But the Colts have posted three sacks in each of their past three games and have been finding success without blitzing. They'll make things hard on the visiting McCord, who has never taken an NFL snap.

• MUST-START: Jonathan Taylor
• START: Tyler Warren, Ollie Gordon II, Colts DST (bye-week DST)
• FLEX: Caleb Douglas (low-end flex)
• SIT: Daniel Jones, Kyle McCord, Malik Washington, Ashton Dulin, Greg Dulcich, Seth McGowan, Chris Bell, Dolphins DST

It shouldn't take too long for Kirk Cousins to reacclimate to the Vikings offense -- not only has he played in it before, but the West Coast offense he ran in Las Vegas figures to be similar since both Klint Kubiak and Kevin O'Connell are both well-versed in the Shanahan scheme. Here's a worry: Green Bay's pass rush has come alive over its past two games, landing at least a 45% pass rush pressure rate in each of its past two games. Granted, they harassed beat-up O-lines from Carolina and New England, but it's still a unit that's gotten hot. The Vikings offensive line has allowed a league-average 36.7% pass rush pressure rate on the year, but that's sort of a byproduct of other Vikings QBs holding the ball too long. By comparison, the Raiders O-line yielded a pressure on 34.1% of its snaps with Cousins, but Cousins also got the ball out on average in 2.62 seconds. I suspect he'll be quick on the draw this week, which should benefit Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson the most. Last point: Only one tight end has scored double-digit PPR points on the Packers all season, but only two tight ends have had six targets against them, so it's not like they've been heavily tested. And the one tight end to do well against Green Bay? That would be Hockenson in Week 1 (4-36-1 stat line). Hockenson has 11-plus PPR points in four of his past five with the Vikes against the Packers -- two with Cousins at QB. In his career, he's had at least 10 PPR points in 7 of 9 meetings. 

The only quarterback to get more than 15 PPR points against the Vikings defense this season has been Jordan Love, and it took an improbable catch-and-run by Christian Watson in Week 1 to get there. Without that play, Love would have had a bad game, just like Josh Allen, Caleb Williams, Jared Goff, Tyler Shough and other QBs have this season. The problem is that the Packers do not have a capable run game to take pressure off of Love (sorry, Kaleb Johnson's fourth-quarter runs in a blowout win don't count). It means Love will have little choice but to drop back and throw, just as he's done 37.9 times per game this season. That's not a bad thing, especially in the wake of what he did against a good Patriots defense last week, but it's going to be crucial for him to get the ball out really fast. Eleven of his 19 touchdowns this season have come in the red zone on throws under 2.5 seconds, so there shouldn't be much concern about him scoring once he's actually in the red zone. It's getting there that could be problematic: Offenses have totaled just 19 drives that have gone into the red zone against the Vikings this season, the second-fewest in the NFL ... but Green Bay had four of them in Week 1. 

• MUST-START: Christian Watson, Matthew Golden
• START: Jordan Love, Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson, Tucker Kraft, Packers DST, Vikings DST
• SIT: Kirk Cousins (bye-week QB), Jordan Addison (bye-week WR), Aaron Jones, Jordan Mason, Pierre Strong, Kaleb Johnson, Savion Williams 

The bad news for Tyler Shough is that the Panthers should have edge rusher Jaelan Phillips back, and perhaps outside cornerback Mike Jackson also. The good news is that even with these guys, the Panthers' pass rush and pass defense aren't that dangerous. They play Cover-3 at the league's highest rate and are among the lowest-blitz teams in the league, and that combination should yield good numbers for Shough. Cover-3 has typically meant great things for Chris Olave (2.97 yards per route run against it), but it's also meant acceptable target volume for New Orleans' running backs and tight ends near or outside the numbers. Easy completions are a big part of Shough's game, and that's how the Saints got Jordyn Tyson involved last week. I suspect he'll play more snaps this week. Keep in mind, Shough lost one red-zone drive on a Tyson fumble, and the Saints settled for field goals on two others. Shough can move this offense. There's enough optimism here for Shough to deliver like a low-end starting QB against a mild defense with predictable coverages. The game has a 48.5-point over/under, and Shough has at least 21.7 Fantasy points in five of six games the Saints have scored at least 23 points.

It does appear that left guard Damien Lewis will return for the Panthers this week, fortifying their interior O-line. That's great for the entire offensive operation, though both tackle spots remain problematic as far as giving Bryce Young time to throw. New Orleans' pass rush has been slowly improving and could create problems for Young, but it's nothing like what he's dealt with the past three weeks. The Saints also play a ton of single-high safety coverage, and against both zone and man concepts, it's been Darren Waller dominating with high target-per-route rates (27.6% versus Cover-3, 24.1% versus Cover-1). New Orleans has let up league-average PPR points to tight ends over their past three games, including a baffling catch-and-run touchdown to Harold Fannin Jr. last week in overtime. Notably, Waller's route rate has ticked up to 67% in each of his past two games, though his targets only shot up last week against Denver (who played Cover-3 and Cover-1 over 50% of their snaps). In fact, three of Waller's four double-digit Fantasy games were versus teams that played single-high at least at a 50% clip, like the Saints do. Waller could minimize the upside for Jalen Coker, though he also has a high yard-per-route average against Cover-3 (2.58 yards). Tack on the high-scoring nature of this game and we could be in for a shootout where everyone has good numbers -- Young included. 

• MUST-START: Chuba Hubbard, Chris Olave
• START: Bryce Young, Tyler Shough, Tetairoa McMillan, Jalen Coker (low-end No. 2 RB), Audric Estime
• FLEX: Jordyn Tyson (low-end flex)
• SIT: Juwan Johnson, Darren Waller, Devaughn Vele, Alvin Kamara, Tommy Tremble, Saints DST, Panthers DST

There's no debating who the better Jets running back was last week -- Breece Hall was exactly like his old self, creating yards by cutting, juking and escaping past defenders' tackle attempts. His lean 52% snap share through the first three quarters was overshadowed by his humongous 17-8 touch advantage over Braelon Allen before the fourth quarter. Bank on the Jets still using both backs, but Hall should see far more touches. The worry is whether Hall has done enough to supplant Allen near the goal line, a scenario that hasn't happened yet in the games they've played together this season. Despite that concern, Hall should lead the team in touches versus a Bills run defense that's let six of eight RBs with at least 13 touches land a minimum of 14 PPR points this season. The matchup for the Jets O-line against the Bills front isn't bad for Gang Green, either. Hall is worth rolling with as an easy No. 2 RB, while Allen is best reserved for dire Fantasy situations.     

• MUST-START: Josh Allen, James Cook
• START: Breece Hall, DJ Moore, Adonai Mitchell (low-end No. 2 WR if Garrett Wilson is out), Bills DST (use them in Week 11 too)
• SIT: Geno Smith (bye-week QB), Dalton Kincaid (bye-week TE), Braelon Allen (bye-week RB), Khalil Shakir, Mason Taylor, Keon Coleman, Kenyon Sadiq, Jets DST

• MUST-START: Trevor Lawrence
• START: Bhayshul Tuten, Parker Washington, Carnell Tate, Tony Pollard (low-end No. 2 RB), Jaguars DST
• FLEX: Wan'Dale Robinson (PPR)
• SIT: Cam Ward, Jakobi Meyers (bye-week RB), Brenton Strange, Chris Rodriguez Jr., Elic Ayomanor, Gunnar Helm, Brian Thomas Jr., Titans DST

Against almost anyone else, this Rams offense would be in big trouble. But the Cardinals defense has struggled all year, and now their offense has very little left in terms of experience and explosiveness with rookie Carson Beck starting. No one would be surprised if three-and-out possessions and turnovers led to some short fields for the Rams offense to cultivate opportunities to score. A reliance on the run is probably the easy part, especially if the Rams roll with two- and three-tight end formations to put more big bodies on the field to block for their running backs. When the Rams have played with a lead, Blake Corum typically sees almost as many second-half snaps as Kyren Williams. And when they're building the lead in the first half, Williams tends to have a grip on the snaps. The game script should be conducive to both Williams and Corum putting up numbers. Corum has averaged a half-yard more per carry and 2.7 more yards per catch than Williams on the season, and he has a higher explosive play rate (11.7% to Williams' 8.1%). The Cardinals have been league-average in PPR points allowed to running backs over the last four weeks, but that could change after this matchup.

• MUST-START: Kyren Williams, Trey McBride
• START: Blake Corum, Rams DST
• SIT: Matthew Stafford, Carson Beck, Tyler Allgeier, Tutu Atwell, Konata Mumpfield, Tyler Higbee, Colby Parkinson, Devin Duvernay, Cardinals DST

Zach Charbonnet played 14 more snaps in Week 9 than Week 8, shoving George Holani off the field, and he also had eight more touches and far better efficiency. Granted, the 77 rush yards on 16 carries came against the Cardinals, but it's not like the Raiders are a big step-up in class. Only the Falcons have allowed more PPR points per game to running backs in the last four weeks than Las Vegas. That should be enough to spark another solid-touch workload for Charbonnet, but there could be enough there for Jadarian Price to get involved too. One notable difference: Price has one snap inside the 10 since Charbonnet's been back, whereas the veteran has three. And on third downs, Charbonnet's played 14 snaps to Price's six. I'd expect a pretty good game from Charbonnet given the matchup and expected touches. Price would probably need to break a few runs to deliver a solid non-PPR stat line.

Only desperate Superflex managers would consider starting Fernando Mendoza against a Seattle defense that's slammed the door on every quarterback except *checks notes* Marcus Mariota this season. Mendoza does have three things going for him. However, he has the uncoverable Brock Bowers, a strong arm capable of making accurate throws to anywhere on the field, and a playcaller in Klint Kubiak who spent all of 2025 practicing against the Seattle defense. The matchup should provide ample opportunities for Mendoza to quickly throw short -- passes to Bowers, Ashton Jeanty and fellow tight end Michael Mayer seem reasonable to expect versus a Seattle pass defense designed to eliminate deep throws.

• MUST-START: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Brock Bowers
• START: Zach Charbonnet, Ashton Jeanty (No. 2 RB), Jadarian Price (low-end No. 2 RB), Seahawks DST
• SIT: Fernando Mendoza, Drew Lock, Michael Mayer (bye-week PPR TE), Tre Tucker, Cooper Kupp, Mike Washington Jr., Raiders DST

This is a big-time test for Dallas' slowly improving defense. The 49ers figure to have Deebo Samuel back, figure to still have speedster Jordan Watkins and Demarcus Robinson make contributions, and newcomer Keenan Allen could also be part of the picture even though he's learning a whole new offense on the fly. Dallas' low blitz rate and up-and-down pass rush pressure will probably be the biggest factor -- Brock Purdy leads all quarterbacks in EPA per dropback and TD rate when not pressured, and he's third with 8.8 yards per pass attempt. Plus, it's not like he stinks when he is pressured, but his TD rate collapses. We know that Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle will play a lot, and no one ran more routes than Watkins last week. I would expect Deebo Samuel, if healthy, to play nearly as much as Watkins, with Robinson and Allen splitting up plenty of snaps. Samuel would be the sneaky flex, if not a low-end No. 2 receiver.    

• MUST-START: Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, CeeDee Lamb, Javonte Williams, George Kittle
• START: Dak Prescott, 49ers DST
• FLEX: Ryan Flournoy
• SIT: Jordan Watkins (bye-week WR), Keenan Allen (stash), Demarcus Robinson, Kaelon Black, Brevyn Spann-Ford, Cowboys DST

The biggest change in Aaron Rodgers' play from his first four games to his past four games has been his average depth of throw, deflating from 9.3 yards to a meek 5.1 yards. But with this significant dip in downfield throws has come improved efficiency: His completion rate is up to 64.4% (from 57.5%), his off-target rate is down to 10.4% (from 17%), and his overall success rate is higher at 58.8% (up from 52.3%) despite no real difference in his yards per attempt (steady at 6.5 yards) or TD rate (down to 4.4% from 4.6%). Most importantly, the Steelers are 4-0 in their past four games, so it's not like there's a reason for them to come out of the bye changing how their pass game operates. Shorter throws have already been problematic for DK Metcalf, whose only game north of 7.6 PPR points since Week 5 came on a 15-target outburst at Tampa Bay. He'll not only have to deal with the shorter throws, but Bengals cornerback D.J. Turner was part of the reason why Metcalf had just 12.1 PPR points in Week 3. The saving grace for him, as well as rookie Germie Bernard, would be a rise in overall pass attempts from Rodgers -- if the Bengals put up points, then the Steelers will have to match it. That's not something any opponent has done against Pittsburgh in their past two games. I'd be inclined to start both Steelers receivers as No. 3 options in PPR but the matchup for Bernard is notably more appealing. 

• MUST-START: Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Jaylen Warren
• START: Chase Brown
• FLEX: DK Metcalf, Germie Bernard (PPR), Rico Dowdle (low-end flex)
• SIT: Aaron Rodgers (bye-week QB), Darnell Washington, Mike Gesicki, Pat Freiermuth, Dohnte Meyers, Samaje Perine, Steelers DST, Bengals DST

The Ravens didn't trade for Jacoby Brissett because he's good; they traded for him because he was available and experienced. Many of his passing metrics from Arizona weren't any better than league average, but one big positive was his 87.5% catchable throw rate, fourth-best among qualifying QBs. And that rate is exactly the same on throws between 10 and 15 air yards, too. So if the goal for Brissett is to throw an accurate ball inside of 15 air yards to Zay Flowers and everyone else in Baltimore, he should be able to come through. Of Flowers' 64 targets this season, just nine have been on throws 16 or more yards downfield. Another note on Brissett: He has had a career-long tendency to lean on his tight end. This is normally where I'd say Mark Andrews is a startable option. Still, in Baltimore's past four games, Andrews has had just three more targets and two more catches than Josh Cuevas despite running nearly three times as many routes, and the rookie has had much better receiving efficiency than Andrews. Between Brissett's tendency and the Chargers dealing off its best cover linebacker, I'd love to stream Andrews but can't rule out Cuevas taking a few targets and ruining the numbers for both of them. 

• MUST-START: Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers
• START: Ravens DST
• SIT: Jacoby Brissett (bye-week QB), Justin Herbert, Omarion Hampton, Mark Andrews, Justice Hill, Quentin Johnston, Oronde Gadsden II, Rashod Bateman, Keaton Mitchell, Josh Cuevas, Kimani Vidal, Tre Harris, Chargers DST