Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire: Aaron Judge replacements may be short-lived; Matt Shaw leads third base revival
Zebby Matthews, Max Scherzer among the weekend standouts at starting pitcher
By
Scott White
•
2 min read
The biggest baseball story from the weekend was Nick Kurtz's four-homer game Friday, a truly historic performance that vaults him into the elite at first base. I hope to have more to say about that in the coming days.
The second-biggest baseball story from the weekend was Aaron Judge's elbow injury. He was diagnosed with a flexor strain that prevented him from making his usual throws in right field. After a couple days of attempting to play through it, it ultimately forced him to the IL. That story seems like the more appropriate one to take on in a Waiver Wire article since, obviously, you'll need to replace Judge.
But for how long? Opinions may vary. Certainly a flexor strain would sideline a pitcher for some time, and we're usually hearing about it in that context. By the Yankees' telling, though, it's not as big of a deal for a hitter -- or at least not this hitter. Apparently, Judge will only need to stop throwing for 10-14 days, and it sounds like the Yankees will welcome him back as a hitter even before then, according to MLB.com.
"With those first few days coming off the IL, it's probably DH mode. Then he'll start throwing ... and, hopefully, get back to the outfield shortly thereafter," manager Aaron Boone said.
The "then" is doing the heavy lifting there. Contextually, it means that Judge will begin throwing after he's already returned as a DH, and since he's expected to begin throwing after 10-14 days, it sounds like a minimum IL stint is in order. This corresponds with Judge's own assessment of things. He says he can swing a bat fine and had hoped to avoid the IL entirely.
As far as Fantasy Baseball goes, it may turn out that you're only replacing Judge for one week. When the time comes to set your lineup next Monday, he'll be right at the end of the 10-day IL period, so when we're talking replacements, we're talking short-term. And in the short-term, my favorite outfield replacements can be found in my Sleeper Hitters for Week 19 (July 28-Aug. 3). They include Ramon Laureano, Joshua Lowe, Trent Grisham and Chandler Simpson.
If you're thinking longer-term, then certainly names like Austin Hays (57 percent rostered) and Jurickson Profar (77 percent) leap to the top. There's also a chance Michael Harris (80 percent) is available in shallower leagues, and he's showing signs of living up to his potential finally. Tyler O'Neill is also worth mentioning here, particularly since his specialty is the same as Judge's: home runs. He's hit one in three consecutive games after otherwise doing nothing during an injury-plagued season. You can consider him another hot-hand outfield play.
Now then, for all the pickups at those other positions ...
Potential waiver wire pickups
Joe Boyle will indeed be taking the demoted Taj Bradley's place in the Rays rotation. It was expected, and now it's confirmed, which means he lines up for two starts right away. This suggestion is more about the long-term than the short-term, though. Boyle could legitimately be the breakout pitcher of the second half. His fastball and slider both rate at the top of the scales, with the former peaking at 102 mph. The reason he didn't break out with his first two organizations (Reds and Athletics) is because he never knew where the ball was going, but the Rays have a knack for harnessing wild pitchers and appear to have done so with Boyle. His control is still suspect, but he's issued 3.6 BB/9 between the majors and minors this year compared to 7.6 BB/9 between them last year. You see how his other numbers look. Now that he has a rotation spot to call his own, this could be fun.
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Among those who actually pitched this weekend, Zebby Matthews is the clear standout for me. Like Boyle, he exudes talent. Unlike Boyle, his issue has never been strike-throwing. What's changed for him is how hard he throws, his average fastball velocity climbing 1-1.5 mph from a year ago. His velocity was up another 1-1.5 mph on all of his pitches Friday, and you see how that went for him. It was up similarly in his previous start, his first back from a shoulder strain, and while the result of that one wasn't as good (possibly because it came at Coors Field), he registered 17 swinging strikes on just 77 pitches in it. His overall swinging-strike rate would rank 12th if he had the innings to qualify, and that's to go along with an overall strike rate that would rank in the top 25. It's plus stuff and plus control. What's not to love?
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Boy, I have to tell you that I didn't see this one coming. Trevor Rogers, who was runner-up for NL Rookie of the Year during an impressive 2021, had basically been a flaming pile of stink since then, and the Orioles were roundly ridiculed for trading Kyle Stowers and Connor Norby for him at the deadline last year -- a deal that looks even worse now. Or does it? With his latest gem against the Rockies over the weekend, Rogers is down to a 1.49 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in his eight major-league starts. That's not a typo. And sure, the Rockies away from Coors Field are a pushover, but Saturday's start was Rogers' fourth allowing zero earned runs across six innings or more. Moreover, his average fastball velocity is up 1.5 mph from last year, the lowest point during his stretch of stinkiness, and his 11.7 percent swinging-strike rate is the highest it's been since that impressive rookie season. Rogers' numbers are too good to be true -- don't get me wrong -- but he's at the very least entered the realm of the useful again.
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Matt Shaw stands out as the best of a handful of interesting third base pickups, in no small part because he's the hottest. He's homered four times in his past eight games, batting .458 (11 for 24) during that stretch, and given his prospect pedigree and minor-league production, it's not unthinkable that he could be breaking out now. It's not a sure thing, though. For starters, his average exit velocity during this eight-game stretch is only 88 mph. That's an improvement over his 84 mph average exit velocity for the season, but it's still underwhelming considering it's his hottest stretch. Furthermore, the Cubs are thought to be in the mix to acquire Eugenio Suarez to play third base, so Shaw's runway may be nearing its end.
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Third base wasn't the deepest position to begin with, and with the recent injuries to Isaac Paredes, Max Muncy and Alec Bohm, the situation has turned desperate in some leagues. Fortunately, Josh Jung, whose failures earlier this year are one of the reasons why third base is so weak, is back and better than ever. Or at least he's showing signs of being usable again, batting .444 (8 for 18) with a home run in six games since returning from a minor-league demotion. "Oh, man, he looks good, doesn't he?" Rangers manager Bruce Bochy said prior to Sunday's game. "Confident, staying in the strike zone, getting good swings off, and getting the barrel to the ball." The goal of demoting Jung was for him to improve his pitch selection, and the early returns are promising enough that if you need third base help, he may be your best bet.
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Completing the trifecta of interesting third base pickups is Colson Montgomery, who is eligible at shortstop as well, where he may be of even more use in deeper leagues. A fixture near the top of prospect rank lists in recent years, Montgomery had a tumultuous end to his minor-league career, struggling so badly at Triple-A, where he struck out 33 percent of the time, that he was sent to extended spring training to rework his swing. His strikeout rate improved after returning to Triple-A, but only to 28 percent, which raised concerns about his major-league readiness when the White Sox called him up July 4. So far, so good. He homered in three consecutive games last week and hit three balls 105 mph or more Friday. Most impressively, he's kept his strikeout rate below 25 percent. It seems unlikely that someone who never quite mastered Triple-A would clear the major-league difficulty curve so easily, but Montgomery has at least shown he's worth a flier.
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You may have thought Max Scherzer was done for after the 41-year-old missed the better part of three months with the same thumb injury that's plagued him for years now, but his outing Sunday would suggest otherwise. It was his first with double-digit strikeouts since August 2023 and the first time he averaged as much as 94.1 mph on his fastball since September 2023. He's healthy for now, in other words, and even prior to this start, he was averaging more than a strikeout per inning. How long will it last? Well, I wouldn't get too comfortable with him, but he's showing he can have an impact in the short term.
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It's hard to say at this point whether Aaron Judge's elbow injury will help or hurt Giancarlo Stanton. In the short term, he benefits because the Yankees need as much slugging as they can get from the rest of their lineup, so while he was sitting every third or fourth game previously, he's now started seven of the last eight. He's done great work in them, too. You see his numbers since returning from a lengthy bout with elbow tendinitis in mid-June, and they're impressive enough, but over his past 13 games, he's batting .341 (15 for 44) with six home runs. He still hits the ball as hard as anybody, with an average exit velocity of 94.3 mph, and he may even pick up outfield eligibility with Judge expected to man DH when he returns. But how much could the Yankees realistically stomach Stanton in the outfield? It's hard to imagine it'll be every day, while Judge, when he returns, will certainly play every day. So enjoy Stanton right now, but understand that his utility in Fantasy may be short-lived.
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