Stanley Cup Playoffs 2026: Picks, predictions for conference finals as just four teams remain standing
What to watch as the Avalanche, Golden Knights, Hurricanes and Canadiens remain alive for the Stanley Cup
We're through the second round of the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs, and four teams are only halfway through their quest for the Stanley Cup. The Carolina Hurricanes and Montreal Canadiens remain alive in the East, and the Colorado Avalanche and Vegas Golden Knights are still standing out West.
The question now is which two of those teams will advance to the Stanley Cup Final? The Hurricanes have breezed through the playoffs with consecutive sweeps, and the Avalanche haven't been much worse, going 8-1 en route to the conference finals.
If anyone is going to knock off those goliaths before the Cup Final, it's up to the Canadiens and Golden Knights to do so. Montreal has already played six more games than Carolina, winning back-to-back Game 7s in order to reach the Eastern Conference Final. The path has been a bit easier for Vegas, winning each of its two series in six games, but the Golden Knights are up against the heavy Stanley Cup favorites in Colorado.
Before the puck drops on the conference finals, here are our expert predictions on how each series will play out.
Eastern Conference Final
(1) Carolina Hurricanes vs. (3) Montreal Canadiens
Nivison: Can the Canadiens do what no team has been able to do in these playoffs -- win a game against the Hurricanes? Carolina has rolled to an 8-0 start, and as a result, it will have earned a record 11-day layoff between postseason games. Montreal presents different challenges than the Ottawa Senators or Philadelphia Flyers, but will it be enough to pull off the upset?
On the surface, the Canadiens have some things working in their favor. For starters, they have more offensive skill than either of the Hurricanes' first two opponents. Cole Caufield scored 51 goals in the regular season, Nick Suzuki topped 101 points and Lane Hutson tallied 78 points from the blue line. Plus, the Montreal power play has been a weapon all season, and it's operating at a 25.0% clip in the playoffs. On the other hand, calling the Hurricanes' defense stout would be an understatement. Carolina has allowed just 10 goals in eight games while surrendering a meager 2.64 expected goals against per game, per Natural Stat Trick.
The key in this series might be which team gets its top line going sooner. On the Hurricanes' side, Seth Jarvis, Sebastian Aho and Andrei Svechnikov have combined for four points at five-on-five. For the Canadiens, Caufield, Suzuki and Juraj Slafkovsky have totaled five five-on-five points. It's simultaneously surprising and impressive that both teams are here, given those numbers. Carolina's second line of Jackson Blake, Taylor Hall and Logan Stankoven has been a revelation, and Montreal has been getting frequent contributions from its bottom-nine forwards. Still, it's hard to imagine either side going the distance without its big guns.
The Hurricanes just got 11 days to hit the training table and scout their two potential opponents, while the Canadiens limp out of a dogfight against the Sabres. I'm not worried about Carolina being rusty -- especially with Rod Brind'Amour behind the bench -- so I'll say the Hurricanes' fresh legs and dogged defense push them to the Stanley Cup Final. Pick -- Hurricanes def. Canadiens 4-2
Baumgartner: The Carolina Hurricanes have yet to lose a game this postseason, sweeping the Ottawa Senators in Round 1 and the Philadelphia Flyers in Round 2. Now, they'll play in their third Eastern Conference Final in the past four seasons. The line of Taylor Hall (3 goals, 9 assists), Jackson Blake (4 goals, 7 assists) and Logan Stankoven (7 goals, 1 assist) has been outstanding, with the trio leading Carolina in scoring this postseason. Despite the Hurricanes' strong offensive showing across the board, their goaltending has been second to none through eight games. Frederik Andersen enters the conference finals leading the NHL with both a remarkable 1.12 goals-against-average and a .950 save percentage.
While Carolina has yet to be frightened in these playoffs, going 8-for-8 comes with its downsides. The Hurricanes completed their series against the Flyers on May 9; Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Final is Thursday, May 21. Carolina will have had 11 days off between games before they take the ice against the Montreal Canadiens, whose series against the Buffalo Sabres ended Monday night in a thrilling Game 7 overtime. Maybe too much rest against a team that's rolling could be a bad thing.
The Canadiens' journey to the Eastern Conference Final was a complete 180 from the largely untroubled Hurricanes. Montreal played in -- and obviously won -- the only two Game 7s of the 2026 postseason, defeating the Tampa Bay Lightning in the first round and the Sabres in the second, both on the road. The Habs enter this matchup with 14 playoff games to the Hurricanes' eight.
Rookie goaltender Jakub Dobes has been the engine that keeps this Canadiens team going. The 24-year-old has backstopped his squad to two Game 7 victories in enemy territory. It wouldn't be a stretch to say Montreal was outplayed in both of its series-clinching wins, but it was able to outlast its opposition largely because of Dobes' play. Former Stanley Cup champion Alex Newhook (2022 Colorado Avalanche) was a surprising X-factor in round 2, scoring six goals, including the Game 7 overtime winner.
Montreal has been the most entertaining team to watch this postseason, mostly because its games tend to be high-scoring affairs. While I'd love to see another seven-game thriller, I think Carolina will subdue some of Montreal's transition offense. Pick: Hurricanes def Canadiens 4-2
Western Conference Final
(1) Colorado Avalanche vs. (1) Vegas Golden Knights
Nivison: The Golden Knights will be the tallest hurdle the Avalanche have encountered in the postseason, but Colorado has cleared the first two with plenty of room to spare. That said, Vegas presents some interesting challenges that Los Angeles and Minnesota did not.
For starters, the Golden Knights are a very well-balanced team. They defend exceptionally well, but they're also capable of putting some crooked numbers up on the scoreboard. In fact, the top three playoff goal-scorers are all Golden Knights. The big difference for Vegas this postseason has been Mitch Marner, who has completely bucked his reputation as a player who wilts in big games. In addition to being a defensive stud up front, Marner leads the Stanley Cup Playoffs with 18 points. Add in Jack Eichel, Pavel Dorofeyev and Tomas Hertl, and the Golden Knights have a very formidable forward group. The big X-factor is the status of Mark Stone, who missed the final few games of the second-round series against the Anaheim Ducks. If he plays, he gives Vegas another elite two-way presence on the wing, but the Avalanche's depth advantage is more pronounced if he misses any time.
All that said, the simple fact is that Colorado has been head and shoulders above everyone else all season. The Avs are 8-1 in the playoffs, and they've outscored teams 23-13 at five-on-five. To top it all off, the power play has finally found some life in the postseason as Colorado is converting on 25.0% of its opportunities. Good luck finding a vulnerability in this lineup. Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar bring the star power, but 17 different players have scored for the Avalanche over the course of nine games. The Golden Knights are a deep team, but Colorado just has more firepower at just about every position.
The most intriguing matchup is in goal, where the Avalanche are facing a bit of controversy. Both Scott Wedgewood and Mackenzie Blackwood were pulled at some point in the second round. Most recently, Blackwood was yanked in favor of Wedgewood as the Avs came back from a 3-0 deficit to close out the Wild in Game 5. There are some legitimate questions in that crease. At the other end, Carter Hart seemed to hit his stride last round against the Ducks. He's now up to 3.82 goals saved above average in the postseason, and he could give Vegas an edge in net if he keeps that up.
Goaltending questions aside (famous last words), the Avalanche can do everything the Golden Knights do, only better. Colorado's depth wins the day again, and the team rolls to the Stanley Cup Final. Pick -- Avalanche def. Golden Knights 4-2
Baumgartner: The standard of the NHL this season was without question the Colorado Avalanche. After the Presidents' Trophy winners swept the Los Angeles Kings in Round 1 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, they faced what was supposed to be their biggest challenge to date in Round 2 against a star-studded Minnesota Wild team. It wasn't a surprise to see Colorado win the series; it was a surprise to see how the series played out. Colorado flexed their muscle, eliminating a Cup favorite Minnesota side in five games to move on to the Western Conference Final. Nathan MacKinnon hit another gear in the second round, scoring a goal in all five games and finishing the series with nine points (5 goals, 4 assists). Martin Necas also had nine points (1 goal, 8 assists) against the Wild.
There wasn't a Vegas player who had a bigger spotlight on his back in the second round than first-year Golden Knight Mitch Marner. Marner, who leads the playoffs in scoring with 18 points (7 goals, 11 assists), was Vegas' best player in Round 2 against the Anaheim Ducks. In six games against the Ducks, Marner had four multi-point nights, finishing the series with 11 points (5 goals, 6 assists). Including Marner, the Golden Knights have the NHL's top three goal scorers entering the conference finals. Pavel Dorofeyev leads the playoffs with nine goals, while Brett Howden's eight and Marner's seven are right behind him.
On paper, the Golden Knights had a more favorable route to the conference finals compared to the Avalanche, who needed to defeat the third-best team in the West to get to this stage of the playoffs. However, I don't believe either team's previous opponents or path necessarily matters at this stage of the game. Colorado was my favorite to win the Stanley Cup before the playoffs started, and they haven't given me many reasons to think it won't be them lifting hockey's most prized possession in June. Vegas has continued to grow on me throughout the playoffs, but Colorado is too deep up and down the ice for me to pick against them. Pick -- Avalanche def. Golden Knights 4-2
