Upset alert in Week 6? Why these five NFL favorites could fall, including Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars
These favorites could be on the losing end of things in Week 6

Pandemonium is the best way to describe Week 5 in the NFL. The slate featured six double-digit comeback wins, which was tied for the most in a single week in league history. On top of that, several underdogs pulled off outright victories, including the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots, who knocked off the NFL's two remaining undefeated teams in the Philadelphia Eagles and Buffalo Bills. It just goes to show you that just when you think you have the league figured out, it'll zag in a hurry.
And the madness isn't expected to slow down anytime soon, which includes a loaded Week 6 slate. Of course, upsets are commonplace in a given week, but identifying them proves to be the biggest challenge. Below, we're going to take a look at five favorites and identify why they could be on upset alert in Week 6.
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Seattle Seahawks at Jacksonville Jaguars (-1.5)
- When: 1 p.m. ET | Where: EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville)
- TV: Fox | Stream: (Fubo, try for free)
- Seahawks ML odds: +100
Jacksonville is 4-1 and fresh off a prime-time win over the Kansas City Chiefs. It made timely plays on defense and can run the ball effectively. However, there are still major questions at quarterback with Trevor Lawrence. He had a number of errant throws on Monday night and ranks 24th among 33 qualified quarterbacks in EPA per dropback this season. Now, he faces a Seattle secondary that is allowing an 88.3 passer rating to opposing quarterbacks (11th best) this season.
The Seahawks are also surrendering just 3.3 yards per carry (No. 2 in the NFL) this season. If they eliminate that key strength of the Jaguars and put more on Lawrence's arm, that could be a winning formula. Meanwhile, Seattle may have the quarterback edge with Sam Darnold, who is third in the NFL in EPA per dropback (0.32) and passer rating (114.8).
New England Patriots (-3.5) at New Orleans Saints
- When: 1 p.m. ET | Where: Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
- TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+
- Saints ML odds: +168
New England is coming off a remarkable upset win at the Buffalo Bills, and they could be the next up-and-coming team. While that's certainly on the table, this is still a young team that could be due for a letdown performance after such an emotional win. Remember, this is the same team that coughed the football up five times in a Week 3 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, so they may not be the model of consistency quite yet.
New Orleans is just 1-4 on the season, but the Saints have played hard in recent weeks. They gave the Bills a run for their money back in Week 4 and are coming off their first win of the season after taking down the Giants. At home, they have enough playmakers to hang around against New England and possibly clip them if the Patriots aren't careful.
Tennessee Titans at Las Vegas Raiders (-5.5)
- When: 4:05 p.m. ET | Where: Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
- TV: Fox | Stream: (Fubo, try for free)
- Titans ML odds: +194
Las Vegas has fallen on its face with the Geno Smith experiment, as the veteran quarterback has been dreadful over the first five weeks. Smith already has three multi-interception games, including a two-pick showing in a blowout loss to the Colts last week. If Smith's turnover woes continue, the Raiders will give any team that they face a puncher's chance to pull off a win.
While Tennessee is also considered one of the AFC's bottom dwellers, Cam Ward did flash his potential in the Titans' improbable come-from-behind victory against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 5. Is it the spark that gets Tennessee rolling?
Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5)
- When: 8:20 p.m. ET | Where: Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City)
- TV: NBC | Stream: (Fubo, try for free)
- Lions ML odds: +118
Kansas City is in a bad way and letting fringe playoff teams take it down, as shown by its Monday night loss to the Jaguars. The Chiefs' lone two wins this season came against the Giants and a banged-up Baltimore Ravens team that was missing Lamar Jackson for a chunk of the second half.
In Week 6, Kansas City hosts a Lions team that has been prolific on offense, averaging an NFL-best 34.8 points per game. This season, the Chiefs are giving up 4.8 yards per carry on the ground, which is tied for the NFL's fifth-highest mark. That seems like a monumental mismatch against a Detroit backfield led by Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. And if the Lions run the ball effectively, that will further limit Patrick Mahomes' time of possession and reduce his chances of lifting a question cast around him.
San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)
- When: 4:25 p.m. ET | Where: Raymond James Stadium (Tampa)
- TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+
- 49ers ML odds: +130
It remains to be seen who'll be available to the 49ers in Week 6, including the likes of Brock Purdy and George Kittle. That said, the Niners have shown us over the course of the season that they are capable of competing with a depleted roster, and Mac Jones has been more than serviceable under center. This season, Jones is 3-0 as a starter with a 67% completion rate while throwing for 301.7 passing yards per game and six touchdowns to just one interception.
So, even if it is Jones under center, San Francisco should be able to hang around, especially against a Bucs team that is routinely in one-score games. Tampa Bay is the first team in NFL history with four wins by three points or fewer in the first five games. What if that luck doesn't fall the Bucs' way in Week 6 with Kyle Shanahan coaching on the other sideline?