Upset alert in NFL Week 13? Why these favorites could fall, including Lamar Jackson and the Ravens

We had our finger on the pulse in Week 12 as we pinpointed several notable upsets on the slate. 

Specifically, we highlighted how the Browns were more than capable of an outright win over the Raiders, along with the Texans being live against the Bills last Thursday night, and Atlanta taking down the Saints in New Orleans. Even the two that were featured last week that did not result in an upset came down to the wire, as both the Jaguars and Chiefs needed overtime to fend off losses. 

Now, we turn our attention to a busy Week 13. We have ourselves a tripleheader on Thanksgiving, followed by a standalone Black Friday contest, along with the typical action on Sunday and Monday. This holiday slate on Thursday and Friday could be of particular interest because three of them have landed in the crosshairs as potential upsets. 

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Kansas City Chiefs (-3) at Dallas Cowboys 

• When: Thursday, 1 p.m. ET | Where: AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
• TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+
• Cowboys ML odds: +154

Kansas City may have unlocked something during its Week 12 win over the Colts. The Chiefs looked far better than they had in previous weeks and finally got Rashee Rice going. When you pair that with Patrick Mahomes, a Tyler, Texas, native, playing at AT&T Stadium for the first time, there's the possibility that K.C. rolls. But what if the Chiefs don't? What if they revert to the team that we've grown accustomed to seeing in 2025, that is still on the outside looking in on the playoffs? Dallas has plenty of momentum coming into this matchup after rallying from a 21-point deficit to defeat the Eagles on Sunday. While plenty point to this being one of the worst defenses in the NFL this season, the Cowboys are sneakily allowing just 18.5 points per game and 45 rushing yards per game since Quinnen Williams made his debut. If they continue that play on defense, the offense is good enough to hang with anyone, especially at home. 

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-7)

• When: Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET | Where: M&T Bank Stadium (Baltimore)
• TV: NBC | Stream: (Fubo, try for free)
• Bengals ML odds: +270

Welcome back, Joe Burrow! The Bengals finally get their franchise quarterback back under center after missing the bulk of the year due to a turf toe injury. Cincinnati also gets back star wideout Ja'Marr Chase for this game after he was suspended for Week 12 due to spitting on Jalen Ramsey the week prior. Not having Tee Higgins (concussion) means that Cincinnati won't be firing on all cylinders, but this offense should be the best it's been in quite a while, making this a test task for Baltimore. While the Bengals defense isn't anything to write home about, they were keeping Drake Maye and the Patriots in check for most of that game last week. Now, they take on a Ravens offense that features a version of Lamar Jackson that just hasn't looked right. Over his last two starts, Jackson has zero total touchdowns and two giveaways. If those struggles persist, Burrow could couple his return with a much-needed victory for Cincinnati.

Prisco's Week 13 NFL picks: Jordan Love leads Packers over Lions, Chiefs top Cowboys in high-scoring game

Pete Prisco

Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles (-7)

• When: Friday, 3 p.m. ET | Where: Lincoln Financial Field (Philadelphia)
• Stream: Prime Video
• Bears ML odds: +265

How do the Eagles respond after that collapse in Dallas last week? There's a world where they persevere and bounce back positively, especially at home. But it also feels like this team is live to go in the other direction as well. What if Week 12 proved to be a deflating enough loss that it bleeds into Friday's contest with Chicago? The final eight drives of the game for Philly resulted in five punts and zero points. If they are that sluggish against the Bears, Ben Johnson has improved this offense enough to take advantage. The Bears are currently 8-1 over the last nine games and have won four straight. Over that winning streak, Caleb Williams has largely been balling out, totaling nine touchdowns and zero interceptions. Chicago has also had a knack for pulling off these kinds of games, owning four outright wins as an underdog during this 8-1 run this season. 

Arizona Cardinals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)

• When: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET | Where: Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
• TV: Fox | Stream: (Fubo, try for free)
• Cardinals ML odds: +134

The Bucs got good news regarding starting quarterback Baker Mayfield. The veteran was unable to finish Sunday's loss to the Rams due to a left shoulder injury, but it's not as serious as initially feared. Mayfield reportedly suffered a sprained AC joint in that non-throwing shoulder, and isn't ruled out for Week 13 quite yet. With that in mind, the Cardinals could be live in this spot as they'll face either a less than 100% version of Mayfield or backup Teddy Bridgewater. When he came in under duress, Bridgewater didn't provide much spark, completing 8 of 15 passes for 62 yards in the second half. 

Meanwhile, the Bucs defense is starting to become a big problem for Todd Bowles. Over this current three-game losing streak, the unit is allowing 35.3 points per game. While the wins haven't been there for Jacoby Brissett as the Cardinals starter, he's played well. The veteran is averaging 314.5 passing yards per game while totaling 11 touchdowns and three interceptions in his starts, making him more than capable of further exposing this defense. 

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-4.5)

• When: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET | Where: Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis)
• TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+
• Texans ML odds: +180

We don't know the status of C.J. Stroud at this point, as the Texans QB remains in concussion protocol, but Houston has shown us it can win with Davis Mills. The veteran is 3-0 as Houston's starter this season, and while some of that is credit to his play, a good portion also goes to the stellar play by the defense. Houston is holding opponents to just 16.5 points per game (second-lowest in the NFL) and registering a league-best 72.2 passer rating against. Kansas City just held Indy's high-flying offense in check after a bye week, so there is certainly a world where Houston continues that in Week 13 with another dominating effort on that side of the ball. 

Daniel Jones is also on our radar here. Over his last three games, the Colts quarterback has a passer rating of 83.0 and has five total touchdowns to seven turnovers. For reference, he had a 109.5 passer rating, 17 total touchdowns, and just three turnovers in the eight games prior. If this regression continues, Houston has the defense to exploit it en route to an upset.