Raiders vs Broncos: Predictions, picks, best bets for Week 10's Thursday Night Football matchup

We're back into a divisional matchup for Week 10 after a scorching performance from this column in Week 9 (a full sweep of the ATS pick and all three of our props). But before we dive into the best bets for the Raiders vs. Broncos game on Thursday night, let's take a moment and just consider the spot here. 

Thursday night divisional games have been extremely volatile, which makes complete sense. These teams know each other well, and the game features an underdog geared up for primetime against a superior opponent that's had minimal time to prepare. But the Raiders have a pretty big disadvantage in this spot after playing an extra period of football last week. 

With that in mind, let's get to our best bets for Raiders vs. Broncos.

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If you're new to NFL betting or need a refresher, make sure to check out our NFL betting guide with the season underway. Also make sure to check out the SportsLine Projection Model's forecast for the entire Raiders versus Broncos game.

Top straight bet (spread, money line or total)

Broncos -8.5 vs. Raiders

The Broncos have made their bones this year preying on bad defenses at home, scoring 28 versus the Bengals, 33 in a madcap comeback against the Giants and then 44 recently against the Cowboys in an absolute muscle flex. 

They get another bad defense on Thursday, with the Raiders heading to Mile High Stadium on a short week after losing in overtime -- and in brutal fashion no less -- with Vegas having just traded its No. 1 wideout with the deal of Jakobi Meyers to Jacksonville. 

So, not only did the Raiders get their guts ripped out, but the team essentially told its players they don't think they're winning this year with the Meyers deal. That means we have an extremely tired team waiving the white flag for the season and heading to a tough place to play (altitude!) on a short week after a longer-than-normal game. The Raiders, to put it mildly, are not set up for success.

Teams playing on Thursday Night Football teams following an overtime loss the week before are 6-25 ATS since 2000. And it gets worse when those teams are on the road: NFL teams are 3-19 ATS over the same stretch. 

The Raiders defense just played 77 snaps and has to get back on the field four days later. Las Vegas turns the ball over as much as any team in the NFL and is in the bottom 10 in third down conversions allowed. The Broncos are top 10 in terms of allowing teams to convert third downs, and even without Patrick Surtain are still a very good defense. 

It's an impossible spot against a legit playoff team for Las Vegas.  

You can bet on the Broncos to cover the spread at BetMGM, where new users get up to $1,500 back in bonus bets if their first bet doesn't win:

Raiders vs. Broncos player props

Bo Nix Under 33.5 pass attempts

This is a somewhat game-script dependent prop, because if this turns into the Raiders getting a lead or a shootout somehow, Bo Nix could see his passing attempts spike pretty quickly. 

However, as noted above, I'm fine leaning into a similar game script to what we saw from the Broncos and Cowboys, in which the Broncos scored a ton of points (although I think they'll be less inclined to run up the score on a short week with Kansas City on deck) and their opponent didn't score many. 

In that game, Nix still threw four touchdown passes -- he was just incredibly efficient with them, going 19-for-29 for 247 yards. Something similar to that is absolutely in play here, with the Broncos taking the air out of the ball in the second half and shortening the game, with due consideration to their schedule the next three weeks (Raiders, Chiefs, bye). 

Courtland Sutton Over 57.5 receiving yards

This number for Sutton is simply too low. I loved it before my sharp colleague Larry Harstein gave it out on our CBS Sports Network best bets show and I loved it even more after I heard him on it as well. 

Sutton has exceeded this number in all but three games this year. One of those was a surprising matchup against the Colts in Week 2 and the other two were against Sauce Gardner and the Texans' stingy pass defense. 

The Raiders don't have anyone to throw at Sutton like that, and the Broncos' top passing weapon should eat in this spot. I'd expect a few shot plays to Troy Franklin, but there's no Marvin Mims for this game, so Sutton should see plenty of work as the Broncos look to move the chains. He could take care of this in the first half, honestly.  

Tre Tucker longest reception Over 18.5 yards

Betting on long shots down the field with this Broncos pass rush is a concern for sure. But Tucker is now going to see a full workload in this game with Meyers dealt and he profiles as a big play threat with Brock Bowers working underneath. 

This number is a full two yards lower than the rest of the market and Tucker has cleared it in all but three games this year. He'll get several deep-field looks in Chip Kelly's offense and there's a good chance Geno Smith is forced to drop back 35+ times unless we get a total slog of a game.

Even then, Tucker can take a short pass for a big gain with his speed and get us a 20-yard reception. 

TNF anytime touchdown scorer props

RJ Harvey +210

Harvey is quietly coming on strong for the Broncos over the last few weeks and could profile as this year's Alvin Kamara or something similar for Sean Payton's offense. Kamara won a lot of people their Fantasy leagues in his rookie season when Payton unleashed him down the stretch. Harvey could do the same if he gets the usage in the second half of the year. 

He's scored five (!) touchdowns in the last three weeks and although a lot of them have come late in games or as a result of the Broncos having a big lead, that's pretty good news for us this week on Thursday night. 

Harvey's getting plenty of work in the passing game and scored the go-ahead touchdown against the Texans on a brilliantly-designed playcall that featured him running a wheel route late against Houston with Nix finding him in the end zone.  He'll have plenty of designed looks on Thursday and could get all the garbage-time carries, setting him up nicely for a score at this price.

Brock Bowers +160

Devotees of this column know we love to take value on anytime touchdown scorers when the opportunity presents itself, and Bowers at plus money is absolutely value, even though everyone in the free world knows he's going to be getting red zone looks after a three-touchdown outing against Jacksonville.

The lack of Meyers is a bit of a problem because it means defenses can hone in on Bowers a little more, but he's good enough to get open near the end zone and Kelly will be scheming around him for this game. 

Bowers almost has to have a big game for the Raiders to be competitive if Denver is scoring at all.