NFL Week 8 betting power ratings: Why Packers and Eagles aren't among top six, plus ranking all 32 teams
Here's how we're setting the spreads for every Week 8 matchup in the NFL
We're coming off the last Monday night doubleheader of the season that established two elite teams in the NFC. The Lions overcame a number of absences in their secondary to put together a dominant performance against an erratic Baker Mayfield, and if the defense can play to that level consistently then the Lions will be hard to beat. In the second matchup, the Seahawks controlled their game against the Texans from start to finish despite turning the ball over four times. Their success against an excellent Houston defense gives me enough confidence to put the Seahawks alongside three other contenders in the tier just below the Chiefs and Lions.
The remainder of the second tier includes a Bills team coming off a bye hoping to perform better than it did going in, a Rams team that dominated on a neutral field without arguably the best receiver in football, and a Colts team that finally had a signature dominant win against another expected playoff team. The Colts have an argument to be right alongside our top two teams with how they've performed this year, and that's why I was aggressive in adding two points to their spread power rating this week to get them fully into this tier.
Two teams missing from that top six that might surprise are the Packers and Eagles. Green Bay hasn't covered in a month as it finds itself consistently in competitive games against teams that aren't supposed to be anywhere near the level of the Packers. A Cardinals defense that allowed a comeback victory to the Titans had its best performance of the season against the Packers while Jacoby Brissett did enough on offense to keep Arizona in the game for a second straight week. While teams like the Rams, Colts and Seahawks are overcoming injury issues and putting together dominant wins, the Packers are consistently playing down to the level of competition, so I can't put them alongside those teams.
Then we have the Eagles, who are coming off a much-needed win against the Vikings. Jalen Hurts was fantastic in that game, putting together one of the best passing performances of his career while the Eagles didn't turn the ball over and intercepted Carson Wentz twice. And they still won by just six points, the margin of Jalyx Hunt's pick-six in the second quarter. The Philadelphia defense wasn't able to put the game away, letting Minnesota get within two points in the fourth quarter before Hurts iced the game with a touchdown to A.J. Brown. The Eagles clearly have the potential to be one of the best teams in the league once again but until the run game gets in gear, the defense can shut the door and the team doesn't have to rely on outlier defensive/special teams touchdowns to win games, Philly will stay a step behind in my ratings.
My spread power ratings measure how much better or worse a team is than average and allow us to create a spread for the game on a neutral field that we can then adjust to account for home field advantage and get the spread we believe should be offered by sportsbooks for this game. Maintaining power ratings allows you to project spreads and potentially get ahead of line moves early in the week. For example, we were able to grab 6.5 in the Browns-Patriots game before every book had the line at Patriots -7.
I have several more spread picks already locked in at SportsLine, where members are able to get access to all my picks throughout the week as they're made and hopefully take advantage of some good line value.
Let's dive into our betting power ratings and highlight a few more teams of note.
Week 8 power ratings
| Team | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | 6.5 | 5.5 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| DET | 6 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 5 | 5 |
| BUF | 4.5 | 4.5 | 6.5 | 7 | 7 |
| LAR | 4.5 | 3 | 4 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| IND | 4.5 | 2.5 | 3 | 2.5 | 1.5 |
| SEA | 4.5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| GB | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
| PHI | 3.5 | 3 | 4 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| NE | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | -1.5 |
| TB | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| LAC | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3.5 | 4 |
| PIT | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1.5 |
| DAL | 1 | -1.5 | -1.5 | -1.5 | -2 |
| DEN | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2.5 | 1.5 |
| BAL | 0 | 0 | -5 | -3 | 7 |
| ATL | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 |
| SF | 0 | -1.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| WAS | 0 | 2.5 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| HOU | -1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1 |
| MIN | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| CHI | -1 | -1.5 | -1.5 | -1.5 | -1 |
| JAC | -1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 |
| ARI | -1.5 | -1.5 | -1.5 | -1 | 0 |
| NYG | -2 | -3 | -5 | -4 | -4 |
| CAR | -3.5 | -4 | -4.5 | -5 | -5 |
| LV | -4.5 | -4 | -4 | -3 | -2.5 |
| NO | -4.5 | -4 | -4.5 | -5 | -5.5 |
| CIN | -4.5 | -5.5 | -5 | -4.5 | -3.5 |
| CLE | -5 | -5 | -4.5 | -5 | -5 |
| MIA | -5 | -4.5 | -4.5 | -4 | -2.5 |
| NYJ | -6 | -6.5 | -6 | -4.5 | -3.5 |
| TEN | -7 | -6.5 | -6 | -7 | -4.5 |
We've already covered the top eight teams and I have a clear gap after that before we get to the Patriots. Drake Maye is playing incredibly well, and winning three straight games on the road is an impressive task. If either the rush offense (27th in yards per rush) or particularly the pass defense (30th in yards per play) can find a way to approach near-average status, New England will have an argument for jumping ahead of Philly and Green Bay, and I'm fine with those who want to have them a half-point higher than I do.
The Bucs get a major downgrade with how poorly Baker Mayfield played on Monday, airmailing receivers consistently as the offensive line buckled to the Lions' front. With Mike Evans now done for most of the year, I'm not sure this is a team that's much better than average. The Chargers also get a downgrade with their offensive line issues and a poor defensive performance at home against Indy. The Broncos may have won that game in improbable fashion, but that doesn't erase seven awful quarters from their offense. All these teams are +1 because I believe they have the potential to be better, but right now they look like average teams.
The Cowboys deserve to be right alongside that group despite a terrible defense as they get healthier, including CeeDee Lamb coming back last week. I've been impressed with the job Brian Schottenheimer has done on offense, and Dallas is capable of competing in shootouts with a balanced but still elite offense. That goes a long way toward being able to overcome bad defensive play, and it's what Lamar Jackson's Ravens will aspire to be if he can return this week, though a weaker offensive line than the one in Dallas may have something to say about that.
Like the Ravens, the Commanders essentially have an incomplete rating as we await word on the availability of Jayden Daniels. Both those teams would get only a slight bump up from where I have them if their quarterbacks play, and I'd mark them down multiple points if unavailable.
I'm moving the Giants up again despite the loss after the impressive offensive showing on the road against what's supposed to be an elite defense. I'd certainly take them on a neutral field against any team rated below them and while I probably wouldn't against teams like the Jaguars and Cardinals, I think it's a conversation worth having.
Full Week 8 projected lines
| Away | Home | Lookahead | Consensus | PR Spread | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | LAC | -3 | -3 | -3 | |
| BUF | CAR | +7 | +7.5 | +6 | Dalton baked into line |
| MIA | ATL | -6 | -7.5 | -7 | |
| NYG | PHI | -7.5 | -7 | -7 | |
| CHI | BAL | -6.5 | -6.5 | -3 | Still value on CHI if Jackson plays |
| CLE | NE | -7 | -7 | -7.5 | |
| NYJ | CIN | -2.5 | -6.5 | -3 | Massive inflation off lookahead |
| SF | HOU | -1.5 | -1.5 | -0.5 | Upgrade SF if Purdy returns |
| TB | NO | +5.5 | +4.5 | +4 | |
| DAL | DEN | -4.5 | -3.5 | -3 | |
| TEN | IND | -11.5 | -14 | -12.5 | |
| GB | PIT | +3 | +3 | +1.5 | |
| WAS | KC | -5.5 | -10 | -7.5 | Market expects Daniels to sit? |
This is how I would set each game based on my power ratings and home field advantage data for this week. A large discrepancy between the projected power rating lines and the market lines does not make the game an autoplay, but it gives us a basis for potential strong picks pending further analysis.
