tyler-warren-1.jpg
Imagn Images

This is a weird sort of reverse humblebrag, but if you read this column, you know we give out three NFL anytime touchdown scorer bets each week. In an extremely weird anomaly, we managed to go 2-for-3 (which is very good) on the touchdown scorers but the two playeers who scored -- Davante Adams and Quinshon Judkins -- happened to score six touchdowns. 

Six touchdowns, for those scoring at home, is a great month for the Titans. That felt like an immediate cheap shot at the Titans offense, so I double checked and, as it turns out, the Titans actually have six touchdowns this season. It's Week 8, folks. 

Eventually that will inform a selection below but, let's linger on the anytime touchdown thing for a second since it's National Tight End Day on Sunday. We live in a world of silly holidays, but NFL tight ends take this day quite seriously. Teams aren't building game plans around tight ends, but there will be specific play calls designed for tight ends this weekend. My advice would be a round robin of the three tight end props I'm giving out below.

Click here to bet Week 8 NFL games at DraftKings Sportsbook, where new users get $300 in bonus bets if your first bet wins, along with three months of NBA League Pass:

In fact, coming off a really big week for this column (4-1 on sides and totals, the free roll touchdown scorers and some bad luck props bets), and given the way we're currently rolling on SportsLine (21-9 in our last 30 bets), we're going full tight end for Week 8. 

Also, I would be remiss if I didn't tell you to subscribe to the SportsLine YouTube page and sign up for SportsLine alerts. We're on a bit of a heater and would be nuclear if the Vikings could run the ball. 

Bet NFL Week 8 action at BetMGM, where new users can get up to $1,500 in bonus bets back if their first bet doesn't win:

This is a weird NFL week and a tough handicap. There's only 13 games and 10 of them are snuggling a key number when it comes to betting. We're fresh off a week where the public won big, so maybe be a touch careful with laying big numbers unless you trust that team to blow out their opponent.

Which brings us to our favorite bet of the week...

Best bets

Colts -14.5 vs. Titans

I honestly can't believe I'm doing this, because 1) I haven't been in on the Colts all year and B) I'm buying at the absolute lowest price. 

Having said all that, have you seen the Colts? They're scoring at a higher points per drive than the 2018 Chiefs and 2007 Patriots. 

In the event you're not a historian, let me make it more acute -- Daniel Jones is currently operating a more impressive and explosive offensive than Tom Brady did with the undefeated Patriots and Patrick Mahomes did with his 50-touchdown Chiefs season. Will it last? Probably not! 

But Tennessee is down Jeffery Simmons and if you've watched Jonathan Taylor on tape this year, you know he's the best offensive player in football. The only thing holding back the "Should Jonathan Taylor be MVP?" conversation is Daniel Jones and Shane Steichen soaking up the award convo. 

No one wants to back a two-touchdown favorite, but the Colts are smashing teams right now. They're playing their second divisonal game (making this a sneaky huge matchup) and the Titans probably can't score 17. 

Steelers +3 vs. Packers

Let's get one thing clear: the Packers are a better team than the Steelers. Objectively, this is a perfectly fine line. But there are two pretty big factors that have me staring down the Steelers catching points as a best bet.

First of all, the obvious. This is the Aaron Rodgers Revenge Game. You'll hear about this a little bit over the next few days! Rodgers is playing his old team for the first time since the Packers dumped him so they could move onto Jordan Love. 

It's going to be overplayed in all the conversation about the game right up until kickoff, but let's not forget when the Packers traded up in the first round to draft Love, Rodgers got so mad he won back-to-back MVP awards. He's one of the most spiteful people to ever play in the NFL and this might be his only chance to beat the Packers and become the fifth quarterback in NFL history (along with Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Brett Favre) to secure victories over all 32 NFL teams. 

Perhaps more important than Rodgers' revenge is the "Mike Tomlin as a Home Dog" factor. Tomlin is 21-7-3 ATS, good for a whopping 75% cover rate, as a home underdog in his career with the Steelers, making him the second best coach as a home dog in modern NFL history. 

Pittsburgh has also covered seven straight primetime games as an underdog. The Packers love to let teams hang around, Rodgers is highly motivated, the Steelers have a pretty massive rest and travel advantage. This is a no-brainer for me with the full field goal. 

Panthers +7 vs. Bills 

The Panthers return home on the heels of a three-game winning streak and for all their hard work, they get rewarded with the Buffalo Bills, straight off the bye. 

No fear, though, because the Bills aren't likely to be looking at Carolina as a must-win type of game, not with the Chiefs lingering on their schedule the following week.

Instead, this is a get in and get out type of game for the Bills, which means they'll want to show up in Charlotte and run the heck out of the ball. Unfortunately for Buffalo, Carolina's actually good at stopping the run. Also unfortunate for Buffalo: the Panthers can run the ball really well, and the Bills aren't great at stopping teams from running it. 

Andy Dalton hopefully doesn't have to be a hero for this to get home, but if he does, he can sling it for a backdoor cover against what's been a questionable defense for most of the season. 

Broncos -3.5 vs. Cowboys

Part of the problem of doing a late-week betting column is you're not going to get the best of the number. For instance, if you read my "Bet It Now" story on Tuesday, you'd be squatting on a great number for this Over in Dallas-Denver. Of course, if I was sharper, I'd have given out the Broncos -3, a line that no longer exists.

We don't care. The Broncos are due for a massive bounce back after last week, in which they gave up seven first downs via penalty to the Giants, a ridiculous 27% number that just won't happen on a week-to-week basis. The Cowboys offense is elite and Dak Prescott is playing like an MVP candidate.

He'll score here, but it's a heck of a lot harder to score against the Denver defense than it is against the Dallas defense. Sean Payton loves to flex offensively after people question his quarterback and everyone is asking if Bo Nix can start hot. Spoiler: he can. 

And when the Broncos jump out to a lead, Dallas can respond, but I'm not sure they can keep up with their defense. 

Eagles -7.5 vs. Giants

This is an insane bet just two weeks just after the Eagles lost outright to the Giants on the road as 7-point favorites, and with Philly possibly missing A.J. Brown. I won't disagree. 

But you know what? The Eagles found something last week, and it was a very good example of why we don't make judgments about teams four weeks in, much less eight weeks in. We know who they are, to a degree, but these teams mature and if you don't see the subtle shifts week-to-week, you can risk getting torched. 

Philly figured out its downfield passing attack last week. The Giants are vulnerable in the secondary. A.J. Brown isn't practicing. This line won't move under 7. 

For the first time in 18-24 months, no one has mentioned Saquon Barkley versus the Giants, because the entire world is too worried about Barkely averaging 3.3 yards per carry while simultaneously assuming he won't be good again. 

What if -- and admittedly, there's nothing here to back it up beyond "Saquon is awesome and won't be held down" -- the Eagles offensive explosion continues past Week 7? It's perfectly reasonable. And if it happens, the Eagles are wildly underpriced at -7.5 after being a 7-point favorite on the road two weeks ago. 

Week 7 NFL player props 

Colston Loveland Over 29.5 receiving yards

Loveland isn't a very popular player right now considering how slowly he's started for the Bears. But we've got a post-bye bump going, we've got Cole Kmet on the mend and we have a game that should be a shootout and feature Chicago throwing a bunch of passes. 

It felt very noticeable how Ben Johnson was trying to incorporate Loveland last week into his offensive playcalling. It's just tough with all the players they have. But he's a freak and will be good -- it's just a matter of when. We're only asking him for 30 yards. 

Kyle Pitts Over 43.5 receiving yards

This is a big number for a much-maligned tight end, especially in a game where we're expecting the Falcons to run the ball a ton. But you know what happens when you can run the ball well? It opens up everything for play action. 

Pitts is still an elite athlete who can get down the seam for Michael Penix (or Kirk Cousins, a quarterback injury shouldn't scare us) and I'm hoping we get here on just two or three longer receptions and not have to worry about Pitts actually catching five plus passes.  

Jake Ferguson Over 5.5 receptions

Look at that big old juicy number for the Over here. We love that, especially when people are counting out Ferguson because CeeDee Lamb is back. But what happens when Patrick Surtain is around? That means Lamb is basically out, because coaches tell people not to bother throwing at Surtain.

So it should be George Pickens and Ferguson who eat this week for Dak Prescott and we've seen just how much the Cowboys quarterback likes to lean on his tight end with Lamb out. I love Ferguson to score this week as well.  

Anytime touchdown scorer props

George Kittle anytime TD

This is a crazy number for the grandaddy of National Tight End Day. Look, it's a silly day, but the reality is tight ends care about it. And you know who cares about tight ends? Quarterbacks and offensive coordinators. Kittle didn't have a single fantasy point in Week 7, so people aren't expecting much in Week 8, especially with him squaring off against a tough Houston defense. 

But this is a big game for the 49ers, Kittle is clearly 100% (don't look at his stats, look at Christian McCaffrey's rushing yards to see how healthy he is) and he's going to score on his day. 

Kittle not scoring on National Tight End Day would be like Santa Claus deciding to take a day off on Christmas.  

Tyler Warren anytime TD

The aforementioned theme on these anytime touchdown scorers doesn't need a ton of explanation, right? We're backing tight ends this week. 

Warren's been historically good for the Colts seven weeks into the season. He's backing up his Mackey Award winner status and there's little to no chance the Titans will cover him. He's a fantastic first touchdown scorer bet too. 

Dallas Goedert anytime TD

I wanted to put Loveland here, but his yardage makes way more sense above and Goedert has been a red zone monster for the Eagles, getting five red zone targets and turning them into four touchdowns. The Giants defensive front is nasty, so it won't be surprising at all if Jalen Hurts turns to his tight end at the goal line this week.