NFL Week 4 overreactions: Lamar Jackson won't be able to save the Ravens? Chiefs team to beat again?
Which overreactions have merit and which are out of bounds?
By
Jeff Kerr
•
10 min read
This week's NFL slate certainly told some truths regarding the contending teams. The Kansas City Chiefs took care of the Baltimore Ravens in the highlight game of the Sunday afternoon slate, leaving plenty of questions for the Ravens -- who were a Super Bowl contender entering the year.
The Los Angeles Rams survived the Indianapolis Colts. The Philadelphia Eagles and Tampa Bay Buccaneers played in a 12-round slugfest, with the Eagles coming out of September unbeaten. The Pittsburgh Steelers also played a thriller in Dublin, a game that had many shaking their heads.
Who had the New York Giants beating the Los Angeles Chargers or the Atlanta Falcons defeating the Washington Commanders? What about the Jacksonville Jaguars beating the San Francisco 49ers?
These Sunday games had plenty of overreactions worth discussing, thanks to all the storylines that unfolded. Which ones are actually overreactions and which are reality?
Ravens won't make the playoffs, even with a healthy Lamar Jackson
Overreaction or reality: Reality
This is painful to admit because Jackson is that good of a quarterback and can carry the Ravens on his back. The proof is in the pudding through four games, as the Ravens simply aren't good enough to be a playoff team right now.
The defense had no chance against the Chiefs on Sunday, allowing the Chiefs to score on seven of their first eight possessions, reigniting the MVP play of Patrick Mahomes. They also lost Roquan Smith, Nate Wiggins and Marlon Humphrey in this game, two significant losses to a defense that has allowed 40 to the Bills, 38 to the Lions, and 37 to the Chiefs.
Even if Jackson is healthy and doesn't miss a significant period of time after exiting Sunday with a hamstring injury, it may not matter. This isn't the Ravens of years past, a team with a dominant defense and an MVP quarterback. The Ravens just can't stop anyone, a sign of a team that will miss the playoffs.
Chiefs are going to win the AFC West -- again
Overreaction or reality: Reality
Let's declare it after Week 4, the Chiefs are back. Patrick Mahomes threw four touchdowns in a blowout win over the Ravens as Kansas City scored on seven of its first eight possessions. The Chiefs offense got a significant pass catcher back in Xavier Worthy and will get Rashee Rice back in a few weeks. They have Andy Reid as a coach and Mahomes at quarterback, so there was little reason to worry.
The Chargers lost both their offensive tackles and were upset by the Giants, opening the door for the Chiefs. The Broncos don't look as good as last year in the early going either. As for the Chiefs' two loss -- the Chargers in Brazil and the defending Super Bowl champions.
The Chiefs were always going to be fine, and they may be back too. They'll win the AFC West again.
Jaguars are the best team in the AFC South
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
What a victory for the Jaguars, as they walked into Santa Clara and beat the 49ers -- earning four takeaways and extending their league lead in that department. Jacksonville has the best defense in the division, as defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile has transformed that unit. Travis Etienne has become their most reliable player on offense, as that side of the ball is still trying to get Brian Thomas and Travis Hunter going.
Are the Jaguars better than the Colts? The Colts have a strong case to be 4-0 if it wasn't for two blunder by Adonai Mitchell, even with Daniel Jones throwing two interceptions in the loss. Even though Jacksonville beat Houston, hard to keep the Texans out of the conversation -- even at 1-3.
The Jaguars are off to a nice start and have stacked up some big wins. If the offense can get going, let's revisit this conversation.
Puka Nacua will lead the NFL in receiving yards this season
Overreaction or reality: Reality
What Nacua has done through four games deserves mentioning, especially after he finished with 13 catches for 170 yards and a touchdown in a victory over the Colts. Through four games, Nacua has 503 receiving yards -- on pace for 2,138 on the season.
While 2,000 yards will be nice for Nacua, he's going to be the high-volume wideout in Los Angeles a steh No. 1 receiver. He's thrived in Sean McVay's system and always finds his way open in the middle of the field. As long as Matthew Stafford is healthy, Nacua will get his targets.
This is the year Nacua gets his flowers as one of the best wideouts in the game, as he's set up to have an All-Pro campaign.
Eagles have an A.J. Brown problem
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
Brown might have shown some frustration on social media after the Eagles victory to get to 4-0 today, as the star wideout finished with two catches for 7 yards (on 9 targets). This is the second game this season Brown has finished with fewer than 10 receiving yards in a game, and he has just 151 yards through four games.
Jalen Hurts was 2 of 7 for nine yards targeting Brown on Sunday, having a 39.6 passer rating. That's unlike the two when Hurts targets his best receiver, but so is the Eagles offense having spurts for a half where they look like the worst offense in football.
Brown has a right to be frustrated with the offense and how he's being utilized, but a tweet or two shouldn't sound the panic alarm. He's handled things the right way and hasn't really let frustrations out in the open. The Eagles have to find ways to use Brown better, as their offense gets too cold too many teams. This group is too talented to be this inconsistent.
Brian Callahan won't be the Titans' coach by November
Overreaction or reality: Reality
The Titans were not expected to be a good football team, but Tennessee has simply been uncompetitive through the first four games this year. Tennessee is 0-4 to start the season and has lost 10 straight games, the longest losing streak by the franchise since moving to Tennessee.
The offense is uninspiring, not ideal for having a rookie quarterback in Cam Ward. While Ward is doing what he can with what little he has to work with, the Titans are last in the NFL in offensive points per game (12.8). They have 20 points or less in each of their four games, while Ward has completed 53.2% of his passes with just two touchdown passes and a 63.9 passer rating.
Callahan is 3-18 in his first 21 games as a head coach, an uninspiring .143 win percentage. Losing poorly isn't helping him, especially against divisional foes (the AFC South isn't great). He's certainly on the hot seat.
Saquon Barkley will not rush for 1,000 yards this season
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
The Eagles have a problem on offense when it comes to running the football, which was evident when Barkley failed to get 50-plus rushing yards again. Barkley had just 19 carries for 43 yards and a touchdown in the win, averaging just 2.3 yards per carry. His longest run was 10 yards as the Eagles have had trouble finding ways to create lanes for him.
Through four games, Barkley has 77 carries for 237 yards and 3.1 yards per carry. The Eagles are 4-0 in spite of Barkley's struggles, but this is part of the reason why the offense has spurts like they do in the second half (26 plays for 14 yards prior to final drive).
The roots of the Eagles' problems on offense are the struggles in the run game. They'll have to turn it around at some point, even with Barkley on pace to rush for just 1,007 yards this season. This offense is too good for Barkley to barely get 1,000 yards.
Jaxson Dart is better than Cameron Ward
Overreaction or reality: Reality
There isn't much of a sample size here with this year's first-round quarterbacks, but Dart has impressed enough in his first start to stake this claim as the best. First, Dart did get a win in his debut -- against the undefeated Chargers no less. Dart is the first quarterback to win his first career start against a 3-0 or better team since 2002, bringing life into a Giants team that looked dormant after the first three games.
Dart went just 13 of 20 for 111 yards, but threw for a touchdown and ran for one (96.0 rating). He also didn't have Malik Nabers for a majority of the game, as Nabers left with a significant knee injury. The Giants were still able to score touchdowns.
What Dart is doing in his one start is better than anything Ward has shown, outside of an impressive across-the-field touchdown pass. This isn't Ward's fault, as he's part of an unimaginative offense. Giants head coach Daboll is on the same hot seat as Brian Callahan too, and he's gotten the most out of his rookie quarterback so far.
Lions are the Eagles' biggest threat in the NFC
Overreaction or reality: Reality
This topic of discussion will likely flip-flop all season, but it's clear the Lions are back on track as a Super Bowl contender. Detroit took care of Cleveland easily on Sunday, getting two touchdowns from Amon-Ra St. Brown and forcing two interceptions from Joe Flacco (the Browns' offense struggled mightily).
The Lions have the look of a complete team -- one that can beat the Eagles at home if they face Philadelphia there. The Week 1 loss to Green Bay feels like an eternity ago, as Detroit has averaged 38 points per game since. The Eagles are very good and know how to win games, but the Lions may be the more complete team right now.
These two teams meet in November, which may be for the No. 1 seed.
Steelers' win was in spite of Mike Tomlin
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
Let's start with the obvious. What Tomlin did on fourth-and-1 with 1:08 left in a 24-21 game is indefensible, taking a delay of game penalty to punt instead of running a play on the Vikings' 40-yard line -- a play in which a first down would have won the game. The conservative decision did work, but these are the decisions Tomlin makes that are head-scratching.
Earlier in the Steelers' win over the Vikings, Tomlin had Pittsburgh go for it on fourth-and-goal from the 3-yard line with 4:14 left in a 24-14 game, but the play call was a run to Kenneth Gainwell (reminder Aaron Rodgers is the quarterback). The Steelers didn't get it, allowing the Vikings to be in a game that should have been a blowout.
Despite Tomlin's flaws, the Steelers play hard for Tomlin, and their game preparation appears to still be among the best in the NFL. Pittsburgh was ready to play in Ireland in spite of not playing many international games, and Rodgers has been pretty efficient.
Perhaps this blows up in Tomlin's face, but it's hard to argue with non-losing seasons. There are still some good things regarding Tomlin, but his game management is questionable.
Vikings' offensive line is why they won't make the playoffs
Overreaction or reality: Reality
The Vikings quarterback play can be criticized religiously, and there's plenty to write about Carson Wentz's performance on Sunday. The offensive line does Wentz little favors, nor have they been healthy enough to help him out anyway.
With Brian O'Neill leaving Sunday's loss with a knee injury, that leaves Will Fries as the only starting lineman not to be injured this season. Christian Darrisaw missed the first two weeks and Donovan Jackson is out due to wrist surgery. Center Ryan Kelly has also missed time due to a concussion. There just isn't any continuity among this group through four weeks, as they had zero snaps played together this season.
Wentz had his issues facing pressure (5 of 10 passing for 60 yards), but it's hard to sustain offensive continuity when the offensive linemen are injured every week. This will be the Vikings downfall.
