NFL Week 16 picks: Our experts face off on Rams vs. Seahawks, Steelers at Lions, Patriots against Ravens, more

Week 15 in the NFL was a rough week for many. Not only did we see several stars go down with injuries, such as Patrick Mahomes, Micah Parsons and Davante Adams, but we also witnessed a couple of notable teams be eliminated from playoff contention, such as the Kansas City Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals.

The Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Rams have clinched playoff spots and are the No. 1 seeds in their respective conferences, but their work is far from finished. The Broncos play a surging Jacksonville Jaguars squad on Sunday, while the Rams are on a short week against the rival Seattle Seahawks, who are looking to steal the NFC West and that coveted first-round bye. 

Week 16 features some incredible matchups, as the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears face off for the second time in three weeks, the fate of the NFC South is on the line with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers, and the New England Patriots look to rebound from their loss to the Buffalo Bills against Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens. Which teams should you pick this weekend, and which should you fade? CBS Sports writers Jordan Dajani and Jared Dubin are here to break down the biggest games of the weekend. 

For clarity, lines for these matchups are as of Thursday morning at DraftKings Sportsbook. 

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-1.5) (TNF)

Dajani (Rams +1.5): The Rams should remain atop everyone's NFL power rankings, even with the Davante Adams injury. The Seahawks are absolutely a solid team, but I have concerns. After all, they needed a game-winning field goal to beat 44-year-old Philip Rivers at home on Sunday.

In fact, let's quickly go back over the past couple weeks. In the eventual 37-9 win over the Atlanta Falcons, Seattle was tied at the break. In the 26-0 victory over the Minnesota Vikings, the offense recorded just 219 total yards. I think it's fair to be skeptical of this offense, especially when it comes to Sam Darnold's history with the Rams.

In Week 11, he threw four interceptions in a two-point loss to Los Angeles. In the playoff matchup vs. the Rams last year, he was sacked a career-high nine times in an 18-point loss. In all, Darnold has lost four straight starts vs. the Rams. Maybe he changes the narrative on Thursday, but it's tough to bet against the best team in the NFL. Prediction: Rams 24, Seahawks 20

Dubin (Rams -1.5): Even without Davante Adams, I feel comfortable rolling with L.A. here. That's mostly because of what I expect to happen on the opposite side of the ball. Sam Darnold is probably seeing Chris Shula's defense in his nightmares given what has happened to him in their past two matchups. The Seahawks have also just not looked very good offensively for a few weeks now. I suspect we'll get a lower-scoring game here, but I like the Rams to win it. Prediction: Rams 20, Seahawks 16

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (-1.5) (Saturday)

Dajani (Bears -1.5): Caleb Williams was one good throw away from making the first matchup vs. Green Bay a lot more interesting. I think he will learn from that experience. Plus, this Bears team is riding high following a 31-3 dismantling of the lowly Cleveland Browns. It was the Bears' largest win in five years, and the defense forced three turnovers. That makes it now 30 takeaways for Chicago on the year, which of course leads the NFL.

The Packers, on the other hand, are ... not riding high. Not only did they collapse down the stretch in Denver, but Micah Parsons is also done for the year with a torn ACL. I think the Bears take it. Prediction: Bears 23, Packers 17

Dubin (Packers +1.5): This line is begging everyone to take the Bears after the way the game went two weeks ago and the injuries to Micah Parsons and Christian Watson, and I'm just not comfortable with it. It feels like a trap. I think the Packers can still move the ball on Chicago here, and that the defense can hang on without Parsons, even if it won't be the truly elite unit that he can turn it into. Prediction: Packers 23, Bears 20

NFL Week 16 Power Rankings: Two plays may have just changed the Packers' season and the NFC playoff race

Pete Prisco

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) at Carolina Panthers

Dajani (Buccaneers -3): You never know what you're going to get with the Panthers. Bryce Young could throw for 400 yards in an upset victory or look completely helpless. The Buccaneers are on a horrific skid, having lost five out of their past six games.

However, I'm going to take Tampa Bay here for two reasons: One, I think the Bucs are simply the better team. Carolina has a -3.8 points per game differential this season, which ranks worst in the NFL among teams .500 or better. Plus, this Carolina defense just allowed the New Orleans Saints to rack up 337 yards and struggled to get Tyler Shough and Co. off the field. Two, Baker Mayfield has his full cast of playmakers back with Bucky Irving, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan. Prediction: Buccaneers 26, Panthers 20

Dubin (Buccaneers -3): I'm riding with the Bucs for mostly the same reasons as Dajani. I trust Tampa's offense more with the reintroduction of Baker Mayfield's playmakers. The Panthers can run the ball decently, but nobody really runs it on the Bucs. You have to beat them through the air. And I just don't think Bryce Young is consistent enough for me to bet on that happening. Prediction: Buccaneers 24, Panthers 17

Los Angeles Chargers at Dallas Cowboys (-2.5)

Dajani (Chargers +2.5): The Cowboys printed money for several weeks, including when they upset the Philadelphia Eagles and Chiefs in the span of five days. Then, they were blown out by the Detroit Lions and upset by J.J. McCarthy and the Vikings. It's tough to gauge where this team is with their backs up against the wall, especially with them facing a stout Chargers team. L.A. is actually allowing just 242.3 total yards per game and 17.3 points per game during this 6-1 stretch. Give me the underdog. Prediction: Chargers 30, Cowboys 24

Dubin (Chargers +2.5): Why exactly is Dallas favored here? The defense has taken a significant step backward since that first game post-trade deadline against the Raiders. It's basically the same unit it was before the deadline. The offense can obviously move the ball against pretty much anyone, but the Chargers aren't just anyone. As Dajani mentioned, they're shutting down just about everybody in recent weeks. Prediction: Chargers 27, Cowboys 23

Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos (-3)

Dajani (Jaguars +3): The most underrated storyline in the NFL over the past couple weeks has been the reemergence of Trevor Lawrence. He accounted for 381 total yards and six touchdowns against the New York Jets last week, and before you say, "So? It was the Jets," I thought Lawrence played one of his best games of the season the week prior against the Indianapolis Colts in a rainstorm. He's playing with confidence and has found a rhythm when it comes to throwing the ball down the field.

Jakobi Meyers has been a big part of this turnaround, as Lawrence actually leads the NFL in yards per attempt since Jacksonville made that trade. I mean, the Jaguars are averaging 33.3 points per contest in the six games since the trade deadline. That ranks second in the NFL behind the mighty Rams. The elite Broncos defense hasn't allowed many quarterbacks to look good this season, but I'm going to go out on a limb and say the Broncos' 11-game win streak ends this week. Prediction: Jaguars 27, Broncos 23

Dubin (Broncos -3): I'm very excited to see whether Trevor Lawrence can keep up his recent run of production, against a quality defense. I've been reluctant to buy into the Broncos all year and they just keep proving me wrong by winning games in spots I expect them to lose. Now that I'm finally in, they'll probably prove me wrong again and lose here. Especially because I've also been reluctant to buy in on the Jaguars and am remaining so here because of concerns that this run they've been on has mostly come against some poor opponents. Prediction: Broncos 20, Jaguars 16

Pittsburgh Steelers at Detroit Lions (-7)

Dajani (Lions -7): The Steelers are feeling good following their blowout victory over the Miami Dolphins, but good luck outscoring the Lions. This unit leads the NFL with 30.6 points per game and averages 91.8 more yards per game than Pittsburgh. Aaron Rodgers' offense ranks last in the NFL in time of possession (27:26) and offensive plays run per game (55.7). 

Meanwhile, this Steelers pass defense ranks bottom six in the NFL, so Jared Goff could have a field day. The Lions are desperate for a win, as they would be eliminated from playoff contention with a loss. Prediction: Lions 30, Steelers 20

Dubin (Lions -7): I feel the same way about this game as Dajani does. I just don't think the Steelers can score enough to keep up with the Lions -- even against an injury-ravaged Detroit defense. You can run on the Steelers, as we have seen in recent weeks, and this feels like a game where Jahmyr Gibbs gets back on track in a big way after he struggled to run the ball against the Rams last week. Unless an offensive explosion comes out of nowhere for Pittsburgh, I like the Lions to win big. Prediction: Lions 31, Steelers 17

New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens (-3) (SNF)

Dajani (Patriots +3): I wasn't incredibly impressed by the Ravens' win over the hapless Bengals. Sad boy Joe Burrow played the second-worst game of his NFL career in front of his home fans as he potentially mulls either retirement or a trade request. 

While the Patriots blew a 21-0 lead to Buffalo, it was about time they found the loss column. It had been almost three months since their last loss, and now they have the opportunity to reset, refocus and rebound. The Patriots are 6-1 SU and ATS in their last seven road games, while Drake Maye is 3-0 SU and ATS in prime-time games. On the flip side, the Ravens are 5-9 ATS on the year, which is tied for the worst mark in the NFL. Prediction: Patriots 28, Ravens 21

Dubin (Ravens -3): I'm sort of wondering why the Ravens are even favored in this game considering the context of these two teams' seasons, and that has me thinking Vegas knows something about the matchup that we don't. Baltimore's defense has played better since recovering from the early-season injuries, and it may be tough for Drake Maye and Co. to have a huge game here. Couple that with New England's own backslide against the run defensively, and I'm going with what I think is maybe an upset but the fine folks at DraftKings apparently do not. Prediction: Ravens 24, Patriots 20

San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) at Indianapolis Colts (MNF)

Dajani (49ers -6.5): Grandpa Rivers did a pretty solid job in his return to the field last week against Seattle. It's almost embarrassing that the Seahawks needed a game-winning field goal to win. I imagine Lucas Oil Stadium is going to be rocking for this prime-time matchup, but the difference in this game is going to be the 49ers offense vs. the Colts defense.

The versatile Christian McCaffrey has been one of the best players in the entire NFL this season, George Kittle has crossed 65 yards receiving in five straight games, Jauan Jennings caught two touchdowns last week and Brock Purdy has found a rhythm. With the number under a touchdown, I have to roll with the 49ers. Prediction: 49ers 24, Colts 16

Dubin (49ers -6.5): Count me among those that did not actually think that Philip Rivers' return to the field was at all impressive. He looked like a 44-year-old grandfather who can't really throw the ball. Seemingly everyone can throw on the 49ers, so maybe he gets going here, but I doubt it. On the other side of the ball, I think San Francisco can get something going against the Indianapolis defense. Even potentially without Ricky Pearsall, there are just too many weapons for them to get shut down, especially if Sauce Gardner is not going to be out there. Prediction: 49ers 27, Colts 16