NFL Week 14 overreactions: Did Daniel Jones' injury end the Colts' season? Will Ravens actually miss playoffs?
Which overreactions from Week 14 are valid and which are off-base?
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6 min read
Week 14 may be the defining moment of the 2025 regular season. Wherever you looked, it seemed as if playoff jockeying was on the line, and now the NFL landscape is remarkably different from what it was entering Sunday.
Most notably, the AFC South has been turned on its head with the Jacksonville Jaguars maintaining their standing atop the division with a win over the Indianapolis Colts. Meanwhile, Indy has far greater concerns than the result of Sunday's matchup, as Daniel Jones suffered an Achilles injury.
Outside of that matchup, Buffalo handled the Bengals in a key AFC contest, while the Steelers took back control of the AFC North with a win over Baltimore. There were also a number of upsets, namely the Titans notching their second win of the year on the road in Cleveland and the Saints heading into Tampa and defeating the Bucs.
It was your standard mayhem that unfolded in the NFL on Sunday, and of course, there will be plenty of takeaways from the slate. But which are concrete and which are baseless? Below, we'll determine just that by examining some of the top storylines from Week 14 and figure out which we need to take seriously and which we can cast aside as overreactions.
Colts season is over after Daniel Jones' Achilles injury
Overreactions or reality: Reality
The Colts are in a bad way. They are now 8-5 on the season, falling further behind the Jaguars in the division after a 36-19 loss in Jacksonville.
Beyond losing ground in the AFC South, Indy now may need to go the rest of the season without Daniel Jones. The veteran quarterback suffered an Achilles injury during the contest, and it doesn't look promising as he was in noticeable pain following the non-contact injury. If he's done for the year, the injury could bring the Colts down with it.
Indianapolis had rookie Riley Leonard as the backup quarterback on Sunday, and it'd be a tall task to ask him to win out down the stretch against teams like the Seahawks (Week 15), 49ers (Week 16), Jaguars (Week 17), and Texans (Week 18). The Colts are now at legitimate risk of falling out of the playoffs entirely. Even if they squeak in, they won't make much noise.
J.J. McCarthy reestablished himself as Vikings franchise QB
Overreactions or reality: Overreaction
McCarthy was lights out in Sunday's 31-0 win over the Commanders. The second-year quarterback completed 16 of his 23 throws for 163 yards and three touchdowns.
Naturally, some will look at this as McCarthy planting his flag against anyone who feared he may not be Minnesota's franchise quarterback. While it was an encouraging step for McCarthy, we're not ready to go so far as to say he's fully reestablished himself as the Vikings' cornerstone under center.
Washington's defense is among the worst in the NFL, so McCarthy wasn't facing the toughest resistance when he dropped back to pass. If he starts to stack outings like this together over the final four games, it'll calm the nerves of many around the franchise.
Bengals' fourth-quarter collapse dashes playoff hopes
Overreactions or reality: Reality
After falling to the Bills on Sunday, Cincinnati is 4-9 on the season and very much on the outside looking in at the playoffs.
This defeat was a heartbreaker for the Bengals, who held a 28-18 lead in the fourth quarter. However, back-to-back interceptions by Joe Burrow (including a pick-six) gave Buffalo the lead and paved the way to a win.
CB CB CB ‼️#ProBowlVote + Christian Benford
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) December 7, 2025
📺: FOX pic.twitter.com/ZlvudYMz4X
A.J. Epenesa INT ‼️
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) December 7, 2025
📺: FOX pic.twitter.com/kDrRIfmGPa
This loss now puts the Bengals three games behind the Steelers for first place in the AFC North, and they are even further behind in the wild-card race. Losing to Buffalo also gives the Bills the head-to-head tiebreaker, so while Cincinnati is not officially eliminated from the playoffs at this moment, they may as well be.
Saints should build around Tyler Shough going forward
Overreactions or reality: Overreaction
Tyler Shough led the Saints to one of the biggest upsets of the season after New Orleans went into Raymond James Stadium and took down the Buccaneers, 24-20.
The rookie quarterback completed 13 of his 20 passes for 144 yards and an interception, but did the bulk of his damage on the ground. Shough rushed seven times for 55 yards and two touchdowns in the win.
Shough it, run it - 34 YARDS TO THE HOUSE!#Saints | 📺 CBS pic.twitter.com/rNofdNPgJ6
— New Orleans Saints (@Saints) December 7, 2025
HOLY SHOUGH!!!!#Saints | 📺: CBS pic.twitter.com/zI1xk1hVkc
— New Orleans Saints (@Saints) December 7, 2025
This is yet another strong showing from Shough, who is trying to play well enough that the Saints decide to build around him going forward instead of dipping their toes back into the NFL Draft this spring.
While Shough is doing his best to change that, I don't think we're there yet. The Saints should continue to evaluate their young quarterback over this final stretch, but also leave the door open to take a quarterback in the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft if one falls to them.
Ravens are going to miss the playoffs
Overreactions or reality: Reality
Baltimore was unable to hold serve at home against the Steelers, falling to its division rival 27-22. The loss now puts Pittsburgh back atop the AFC North and drops the Ravens out of the playoff picture entirely.
While these two teams still have one more matchup in Week 18, Baltimore is at real risk of missing the postseason despite their previous surge back into the conversation. The club has now lost two in a row and has a daunting final four games: at Bengals (Week 15), vs. Patriots (Week 16), at Packers (Week 17), and at Steelers (Week 18).
That's much tougher than Pittsburgh's final slate, so this division could be wrapped up before we get to that regular-season finale. Outside of the division race, the Ravens are on the wrong side of several key head-to-head tiebreakers (Buffalo, Houston, and Chiefs), so that avenue to the playoffs as a wild card entry is arguably even more difficult.
Packers are going to run away with the NFC North
Overreactions or reality: Overreaction
Yes, Green Bay is back atop the division after Sunday's win over Chicago, but it still feels like there is a lot to be determined in the NFC North. There is still one more game between the Packers and the Bears in Week 16, so this was merely Part 1 of this division rivalry. Before that game, the Packers will have to travel to Denver to face the Broncos in Week 15, while the Bears will face the Browns at home. If Green Bay were to lose next week and the Bears beat Cleveland, we're looking at another high-stakes matchup, only this time at Soldier Field. Meanwhile, the Detroit Lions are still a factor at 8-5, so there is still plenty that needs to be sorted out before we start handing out NFC North champion T-shirts and hats.
Chiefs are going to miss the playoffs
Overreactions or reality: Reality
This is a remarkable turn of events, but the reality is that the Kansas City Chiefs are likely going to miss the playoffs in 2025. While not mathematically eliminated, their chances of reaching the postseason took a monstrous hit with the loss to the Texans on Sunday night.
Fourth down stop for the Texans defense!
— NFL (@NFL) December 8, 2025
HOUvsKC on NBC
Stream on @NFLPlus + Peacock pic.twitter.com/22Lk93WzxL
Kansas City is officially out of range to win the AFC West and now needs to win out and see several teams lose multiple games just to sneak in as a wild card team. It's hard to imagine all of those pieces falling into place. So, we'll soon be looking at a road to the Super Bowl that will not have Patrick Mahomes in the conversation whatsoever, which is downright shocking.
