NFL Week 12 bold predictions: Rough week for Patrick Mahomes, J.J. McCarthy enjoys success against Packers

Week 12 of the 2025 NFL season kicked off on Thursday with a jaw dropping upset as the Davis Mills-led Houston Texans defeated the Josh Allen-led Buffalo Bills 23-19 in a defensive slugfest.  

Yes, Mills (153 yards passing and two touchdowns on 16 of 30 passing) was filling in at quarterback for the injured C.J. Stroud, but the real driver behind Houston's win was the Texans' pass rush sacking Allen a career-high eight times. Pro Bowl edge rushers Danielle Hunter (2.0 sacks) and Will Anderson (2.5 sacks) led the way en route to Allen to taking more than half the amount of sacks he took all of last season.

What other unforeseen things could happen in Week 12's weekend NFL action? Let's take a look with five bold predictions. 

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Patrick Mahomes loses third consecutive regular season start for first time in career with loss vs. Colts

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is on the verge of losing a third consecutive regular season start for the first time in his career. He's gone 122 starts without a three-game losing streak in the regular season, which is the longest such streak to begin a career. After losses at the Buffalo Bills and at the Denver Broncos in back to back games, the now-5-5 defending AFC champions are staring down the potential of a third consecutive loss against the 8-2 Indianapolis Colts even though Kansas City is a 3.5-point home favorite according to FanDuel.

Mahomes and the Chiefs are playing much better at home with a 4-1 record at Arrowhead and a 1-4 record on the road in 2025. During Kansas City's current four-game home winning streak, all of their victories have come by at least 13 points. Mahomes has thrown three or more touchdowns in each of those wins, but he'll throw under three touchdowns on Sunday. Why? Kansas City will fall behind early while playing against the NFL's No.1 scoring offense -- the Colts are averaging 32.1 points per game. That will put Mahomes in a spot where he was to play hero ball with an offensive supporting cast that isn't up to the task, and the Chiefs' playoff hopes will be on life support with Mahomes experiencing his first regular season three-game losing streak. 

Jets force multiple takeaways vs. Ravens

The Baltimore Ravens (5-5) are entering Week 12 red hot with a four-game winning streak since beginning the year 1-5. However, the 2025 Ravens are on pace to average the fewest total yards per game (322.0) and rushing yards per game (142.0) in any season since Lamar Jackson was drafted in 2018. Both running back Derrick Henry and tight end Mark Andrews are clearly a step or two slower in 2025. 

As a result of that attrition and facing Myles Garrett, Jackson is coming off of his first career game with no passing touchdowns and multiple interceptions (two) in a Week 11 at the Cleveland Browns. He'll be seeing some ghosts as a result against New York edge rusher Will McDonald and throw multiple interceptions again against a Jets defense with just one takeaway through 10 games this season, the fewest through a team's first 10 games in NFL history. 

Vikings' J.J. McCarthy throws for over 200 yards vs. Packers' top 10 defense

Minnesota's 2024 10th overall pick quarterback J.J. McCarthy is riding the struggle bus. He's registered a 52.9% completion percentage, eight total touchdowns and eight interceptions in five starts while throwing at least one interception in every start. He's also thrown for fewer than 200 yards in four of his five starts this season.

On paper, facing All-Pro edge rusher Micah Parsons and the Green Bay Packers top 10 scoring defense at Lambeau Field will likely lead to McCarthy having another bad day in Week 12. However, he will eclipse 200 yards passing on Sunday despite Green Bay allowing the 10th-fewest passing yards per game (195.3) this season. The reason why is because the cornerback position is the one position on the Packers' defense that is truly vulnerable. Vikings wide receivers Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison should be able to break free for enough bombs against Keisean Nixon, Nate Hobbs and Carrington Valentine to get McCarthy over 200 yards passing on Sunday. 

Cardinals TE Trey McBride doesn't produce 100 yards receiving for third game in a row vs. Jaguars

Arizona Cardinals tight end Trey McBride is making a strong first-team All-Pro case with him being just one game away from becoming the first tight end with three straight 100-yard receiving games since the Ravens' Mark Andrews back in 2021. 

The Jaguars are a great matchup to allow McBride to match this recent streak, allowing 69.4 receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends in 2025 -- the third-most by any defense against tight ends in the NFL this season. However, Pro Bowl edge rusher Josh Hines-Allen, who is now Jacksonville's all-time sacks leader with 56.0, and Co. will wreck shop against the Cardinals' offensive line and prevent Arizona quarterback Jacoby Brissett from getting anywhere near McBride on a regular frequency. That will end McBride's latest stretch of domination reaching three games in a row. 

Cowboys limit Eagles to under 50% first down conversion rate on tush push for second game in a row

The defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles converted on just one of four tush push attempts in their Week 11 victory over the Detroit Lions, not including two false starts. That gives the Eagles their most failed tush pushes (three) in a game ever.

That's a stark contrast from Philadelphia's first nine games this season when the Eagles converted for first downs or touchdowns on 14 of their first 18 tries in 9 games this year. However, the gloom and doom for the defending Super Bowl champions will continue for a couple reasons. One is the host Cowboys now have All-Pro defensive tackle Quinnen Williams in addition to Pro Bowler Kenny Clark and defensive tackle Osa Odighizuwa. Williams is a little bit different than Dallas' 2023 first-round pick defensive tackle Mazi Smith.  

With the addition of Williams, plus both center Cam Jurgens (concussion) and right tackle Lane Johnson (foot) banged up, Philadelphia will have a putrid conversion rate on the tush push once again amid a sky full of stars at AT&T Stadium despite the Cowboys defense ranking second to last in the NFL with 22.8 first downs allowed per game. May the lowest man win, which for this week, will be the Dallas defensive line.