NFL Week 10 predictions, picks: Our experts face off on top games

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As we enter Week 10, a few things have become evident. Josh Allen has Patrick Mahomes' number when it comes to regular-season football, the Cincinnati Bengals' defense may be the worst in NFL history and the Seattle Seahawks could be legitimate contenders.

This week in the NFL, Daniel Jones will look to rebound vs. the Atlanta Falcons in Berlin, the "Tom Brady Bowl" takes place in Tampa as the Buccaneers welcome Drake Maye and the surging New England Patriots, and Lamar Jackson looks to inch the Baltimore Ravens closer to .500 with a win vs. the Minnesota Vikings.

Which teams should you pick in Week 10, and which should you fade? CBS Sports writers Jordan Dajani and Jared Dubin are here to break down the biggest games of the weekend. For clarity, lines for these selections were taken on Nov. 5, via FanDuel Sportsbook, where new users can get $150 in bonus bets for a winning $5 wager.

Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos (-8.5) (TNF)

Dajani (Broncos -8.5): Geno Smith turned in a nice outing despite the overtime loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars, as he threw a season-high four touchdowns with Brock Bowers back in the lineup. Still, I think this Broncos team is nine points better than the Raiders because of the defense. Denver leads the NFL in sacks per game (4.4), third-down percentage (28.2%) and red zone touchdown percentage (34.8%). Smith is 0-5 against the spread in prime time since the start of last season, while Bo Nix is 3-1 straight up and against the spread in his career in prime time. â¦ Prediction: Broncos 27, Raiders 17

Dubin (Broncos -8.5): The Las Vegas offense has had exactly two games this season where it looked functional. Coincidentally, those were the two games where Brock Bowers was fully healthy. It didn't exactly face the best defenses in those games, though, and now goes up against a Denver unit that is among the best in the NFL. I suspect the Raiders will struggle to generate much offensively here, especially given the matchup between their offensive line and Denver's pass rush. I don't exactly trust the Broncos' offense, but I trust the defense enough to pick them here. â¦ Prediction: Broncos 26, Raiders 14

Atlanta Falcons at Indianapolis Colts (-6.5) (Berlin)

Dajani (Falcons +6.5): This is a tricky line since the game is being played in Berlin and Daniel Jones is coming off a performance in which he turned the ball over 100 times. I think the Colts win this matchup, but I'll actually take the Falcons to cover. Atlanta is 3-0 ATS as an underdog this season, and this defense allows 158.1 passing yards per game -- which ranks No. 1 in the NFL. â¦ Prediction: Colts 23, Falcons 20

Dubin (Falcons +6.5): Indianapolis is looking to get back on track here after a disastrous offensive performance against the Steelers wherein the Colts turned the ball over on seemingly every possession. The way to get after the Falcons defense is on the ground, so I expect a heavy dose of Jonathan Taylor here. The way to beat the Colts is through the air, so Michael Penix Jr. will have to be on his game -- especially if Sauce Gardner is able to play and cover Drake London throughout the morning. I like the Colts to come away with a win thanks to their run game, but international games are always extremely weird. I think Atlanta can keep it somewhat close. â¦ Prediction: Colts 24, Falcons 20

Baltimore Ravens (-4.5) at Minnesota Vikings

Dajani (Vikings +4.5): The Ravens are rejuvenated with the return of Lamar Jackson to the lineup, but I think J.J. McCarthy's performance against the Detroit Lions was the most surprising development of Week 9. Seriously, the Michigan product didn't look like he even belonged in the NFL for the majority of his first two starts, and then he shows up to Detroit and beats the Lions coming off a bye? McCarthy is actually the only quarterback since 1950 to have two passing touchdowns and one rushing touchdown in two of his first three career starts. I know Lamar is 13-1 in his career on the road vs. NFC opponents, but if you're giving me 4.5 points with a home dog, I'll take it. I may even take the Vikings straight up. â¦ Prediction: Vikings 27, Ravens 24

Dubin (Ravens -4.5): The Ravens are getting healthier now, and I like them to go on a run over the next several weeks, given the quality of their schedule. I think J.J. McCarthy's actual production against the Lions has been somewhat overstated, and I still have concerns about whether the Vikings can be explosive enough with him under center to compete with the best offenses in the league. Brian Flores dialed things up quite well against the Lions a week ago, but going after Lamar Jackson is a different challenge. I think the Ravens pass the test here. â¦ Prediction: Ravens 24, Vikings 17

New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5)

Dajani (Patriots +2.5): This is the first Patriots vs. Buccaneers matchup since Tom Brady returned to Foxborough in 2021, and I think it could be the game of the week. The Buccaneers are still banged-up despite having the bye to rest, and now have to host one of the hottest teams in the NFL. The Patriots have won six straight and are one of two unbeaten teams on the road this season. New England has covered the spread in all four road contests and has already taken down every other NFC South team. â¦ Prediction: Patriots 28, Buccaneers 26

Dubin (Patriots +2.5): New England looked like it was going to roll last week against the Falcons before Drake Maye fumbled just before halftime and the Patriots strangely stumbled for much of the rest of the game. That offensive performance in the second half was out of character for this team, and I expect them to be much better against a Buccaneers defense that hasn't been as stingy as Atlanta's unit. It seems like the Bucs are still banged up offensively as well, so I feel pretty comfortable rolling with the Pats here. â¦ Prediction: Patriots 31, Buccaneers 23

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-1.5)

Dajani (Texans -1.5): C.J. Stroud isn't going to play in this game, so it's Davis Mills at quarterback. Expect a low-scoring affair, but I'm going to take the favorite in this game -- which actually feels like an upset. The Jaguars offense has been inconsistent all year, while the Texans have arguably the best defense in the entire league. An upset that's not actually an upset, and a missed opportunity for the Jags. â¦ Prediction: Texans 13, Jaguars 10

Dubin (Jaguars +1.5): With Davis Mills under center, I don't think Houston has enough juice offensively to win the game -- even if the defense can keep the Texans in it. â¦ Prediction: Jaguars 20, Texans 14

Los Angeles Rams (-4.5) at San Francisco 49ers

Dajani (Rams -4.5): I remember thinking the Rams were going to easily beat the 49ers in Week 5. Instead, L.A. lost by three points in overtime. I still believe the Rams are the superior team, and they have been playing well recently. Sean McVay's squad has won and covered in three straight games, winning each by 14 points, and have gone 9-1 ATS as road favorites since 2023. Matthew Stafford should be in the MVP conversation, as he leads the NFL with 21 passing touchdowns. Rams get revenge here. â¦ Prediction: Rams 30, 49ers 24

Dubin (Rams -4.5): We already saw this matchup once this season, and it ended with the Niners prevailing in overtime. The two teams were extremely evenly matched throughout the game, but the difference was that the Rams turned the ball over twice and the Niners didn't give it away at all. San Francisco has turned it over at least once in all of Mac Jones' other starts, though, and if the Rams can force a giveaway I like their chances because I really like their offense to be the more explosive unit throughout the game. â¦ Prediction: Rams 27, 49ers 20

Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Chargers (-3) (SNF)

Dajani (Steelers +3): The Steelers are riding high following that upset win over Daniel Jones and the Colts. Mike Tomlin's defense was incredible, as Pittsburgh won the turnover battle, 6-1. I expect Justin Herbert to really struggle with J.J. Watt since Joe Alt is now done for the year. L.A. is 1-3 with 18.7 points per game scored in games when Alt does not play. The Steelers build on their momentum with a win here â¦ Prediction: Steelers 20, Chargers 16

Dubin (Chargers -3): I don't know how the Steelers keep pulling off some of these wins with their voodoo magic, but they also seemingly do it every year, so maybe I should stop being surprised at some point. Still, I find it hard to go against Justin Herbert and Co. here, even with Joe Alt out for the remainder of the season. The passing game is still rolling along and the Steelers prior to last week had been getting absolutely torched through the air. I'm betting against them being able to recreate all those turnovers they forced against the Colts. â¦ Prediction: Chargers 21, Steelers 17

Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers (-2.5) (MNF)

Dajani (Eagles +2.5): The Eagles are rested coming off the bye, and Nick Sirianni's squads are a perfect 4-0 coming off that extra week of rest. It looked like Saquon Barkley finally got back on track with his first 100-yard rushing game of the season in Week 8, while Dallas Goedert caught two touchdowns with A.J. Brown sidelined. Jalen Hurts has seven passing touchdowns compared to nine incompletions over his last two games! The Packers have all the potential in the world, but I'm not going to back them against the reigning Super Bowl champions, who have a winning mark against the spread. â¦ Prediction: Eagles 23, Packers 21

Dubin (Packers -2.5): The Packers have tended to play up or down to their level of competition so far this season, so I expected to see something resembling the best version of this Green Bay team on Monday night. That means the flying banshee defense we saw in the first two weeks of the season and the efficient, explosive offense we've seen when they've been at their best so far this year. The Eagles seemingly got going offensively in their last game before the bye, but I'm not sure how much I trust that just yet given how they have looked for the rest of this season. â¦ Prediction: Packers 24, Eagles 20