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A quarter of the NFL season has passed and the league has little idea who's going to emerge as the true Super bowl contenders, which is typical at this point of the year. The Philadelphia Eagles are the defending Super Bowl champions and unbeaten at 4-0, but they certainly have not played their best football. The Buffalo Bills are also unbeaten, yet they've had some close calls as well (even against the winless New Orleans Saints).

The AFC South looks to be an intriguing division between the surprising Indianapolis Colts and Jacksonville Jaguars while the AFC West just got more interesting with the Kansas City Chiefs rebounding from an 0-2 start. The Seattle Seahawks look like players in the NFC West while the Green Bay Packers don't appear to be the Super Bowl contender that they looked to be after the first two games.

The Cincinnati Bengals are in disarray without Joe Burrow while the Baltimore Ravens could be in major trouble if Lamar Jackson misses time (and they have a bunch of problems on defense). Don't get us started on the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets.

There's enough time to process some narratives in the NFL after four weeks, causing overreactions. Which overreactions have merit and which are reality through the first month of the season?

Seahawks will win NFC West

Overreaction or reality: Reality

Three teams in the NFC West are 3-1 through four games -- the Seahawks, Rams and 49ers. This is the lone division in the NFL where every team is .500 or better, so all four teams will battle for the division crown over the next three months.

The best team in this division is the Seahawks. They have a quarterback who can throw the deep ball in Sam Darnold and an offensive line that can protect him. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is one of the NFL's most underrated pass catchers and on the verge of a Pro Bowl season. The defense is third in yards per play allowed (4.5), fourth in yards per carry allowed (3.6) and seventh in net yards per attempt (5.5).

The test for Seattle is beating San Francisco (who the Seahawks have a loss to) and Los Angeles. Mike Macdonald's group is getting better by the week and establishing itself as a contender in the NFC.

This will be A.J. Brown's's last season with the Eagles 

Overreaction or reality: Overreaction

The Eagles are 4-0 and Brown somehow found his way in the center of attention by quoting a Bible verse after a Week 4 victory over the Buccaneers -- a game where the Eagles had no completions in the second half. Brown isn't even in the top 50 in receiving yards (neither is teammate DeVonta Smith) and has two games with fewer than 10 yards receiving.

Is Brown frustrated? Sure, but this is much bigger than him. He's not a selfish player by any means -- quite the opposite. Brown wants to help the Eagles win games. A way to do that is getting the pass game going and setting up the run. The Eagles are trying to figure that out.

This isn't a situation where Brown wants out. He was voted team captain for a reason. Brown sees a problem and is trying to make it right, even if he has to send a cryptic post out on social media. This isn't a big deal at the end of September.

There will be a coach fired by Nov. 1 

Overreaction or reality: Reality

Based on how some of these franchises are run, it seems inevitable that a coach will be fired by the time the next batch of quarterly overreactions are due. The Dolphins are playing hard for Mike McDaniel right now, but losses to bad teams like the Browns or Panthers can turn the tide on his job status. The Jets are a disaster under Aaron Glenn, who looks like he has no idea what he's doing after four games.

While the Jets likely won't give up on Glenn so soon, the Panthers could move on from Dave Canales based on how Bryce Young's development. The Titans are the team to watch, as they look like the worst team in the league after getting shut out by the winless Texans. Cameron Ward deserves better than what Brian Callahan is giving him, as he has just three wins in 21 attempts as a head coach.

Some team will have a new coach by Nov. 1. One franchise will have enough of the man who is currently in charge.

Steelers will win AFC North

Overreaction or reality: Overreaction

The Steelers have a real opportunity to build a significant lead in this division over the next few weeks as they emerge from their bye week against the Browns and Bengals. There's a real opportunity for Pittsburgh to be 5-1 while the Ravens figure things out (the Browns and Bengals appear to be lost causes at this point).

This division looks to be coming down to the Steelers and Ravens, but it's hard to crown Pittsburgh yet. Aaron Rodgers is more than good enough for Pittsburgh to finish the job, but the defense needs to be better at stopping the pass against the good teams if they want their season to be more than just a playoff appearance.

The Steelers play the Ravens twice late in the season (and Jackson is likely back), along with the Bills and Lions. This division is far from over, and the Steelers need to capitalize in October.

Shedeur Sanders will start a game for the Browns this season

Overreaction or reality: Overreaction

All that Sanders has done is create more headlines with his words off the field than his play on it, which is atypical for a player who hasn't played a snap this season. Third-string quarterbacks are interviewed and chat with reporters during the year, but they aren't explaining or sending posts on social media about how their situation can be better.

Does Sanders realize that he was a fifth-round pick? He was never going to start Week 1, especially for a franchise that drafted Dillon Gabriel in the third round. There seemed to be an opportunity for Sanders to start at some point, based on how Joe Flacco and Gabriel have appeared (and Flacco has a shelf life at 40).

There still is a chance for Sanders to start this season, but he's burning bridges with his comments saying that he knows he's doing better than the quarterback play in the league right now. Sanders is having trouble starting on the Browns!

For right now, Sanders is stuck as the QB3 -- and might stay there when Flacco is benched.

The Bengals will trade Trey Hendrickson by the deadline

Overreaction or reality: Reality

Two games without Burrow have the Bengals in disarray, and the schedule doesn't get any easier over the next two weeks with the Lions and Packers coming up. There's a really good chance that Cincinnati could be 2-4 with its playoff chances slipping away. This team hasn't been competitive on either side of the ball since Burrow got injured.

Zac Taylor is suddenly coaching for his job and Hendrickson is a free agent after this season. If the 2025 campaign goes off the tracks, the Bengals would certainly entertain offers for Hendrickson -- especially since he'll be a free agent after the year. The Bengals should be able to get at least a high Day 2 pick for a 31-year-old pass rusher who has a 15.8% pressure rate this season and 17 sacks in each of the past two years.

Hendrickson is the name to watch at the deadline.

Packers were crowned as NFC's best team too early

Overreaction or reality: Reality

Green Bay looked like the best team in the NFL after five days into the season, pulverizing Detroit and Washington at Lambeau Field. Since then, the Packers lost to the Browns and tied the Cowboys -- two teams that aren't exactly amongst the NFL's elite. The Lions and Rams aren't losing to these teams, neither are the Seahawks. The Eagles, meanwhile, aren't losing to anybody these days.

Are the Packers even one of the NFC's four best teams at this stage? Jordan Love is too inconsistent on a week-to-week basis to be trusted and the defense may have bigger problems in the secondary than we think, even with a game-changing pass rusher like Micah Parsons on the roster.

There's plenty of time to revisit this conversation, but the Packers don't even look close to being the best team in the NFC. This bye week will be crucial, as there are plenty of winnable games on the schedule coming up.