Last season was a down year for the AFC's superstar quarterbacks I like to call the "big four." None of Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson or Joe Burrow made the AFC title game. Mahomes, Jackson and Burrow all missed the playoffs and combined to miss 16 regular-season games.

Now, don't get me wrong, confidence is still understandably high in this group. Our experts ranked them as four of the best five quarterbacks in the league entering this season. 

But, maybe 2025 was more than a fluke. Maybe, just maybe, they are in the midst of, or entering the sports version of a midlife crisis. 

Think about it. They are getting up there in age. All four quarterbacks are either approaching age 30 or have already turned 30 years old. Could they be questioning their careers? Allen and Jackson still haven't made the Super Bowl and this is the age when mobile quarterbacks start to decline. Burrow had some midlife crisis-type comments last year. Mahomes is coming off a serious knee injury and the Chiefs fell apart last year. What's next? Mood swings and impulsive decisions? Maybe a little jealousy? The next generation of star quarterbacks could be waiting in the wings (Justin Herbert, C.J. Stroud, Drake Maye, Fernando Mendoza??) 

In all seriousness, each future Hall of Fame quarterback is entering the second half of their career with plenty of promise but also some concerns about their Super Bowl windows. That's why I'm looking at a case for and against a midlife crisis for each one with a verdict included.

Patrick Mahomes

Case for midlife crisis

  • Coming off torn ACL/LCL
  • Chiefs 6-11 last season and 19th in scoring offense in past three seasons
  • Travis Kelce decline, Rashee Rice availability and Xavier Worthy struggles
  • AFC QB competition: Allen, Jackson, Burrow, Maye, Herbert
  • Precedent: Tom Brady 10-year drought between third and fourth titles

Mahomes is the most fascinating case. He's only 30 years old and is already one of three players all time with three Super Bowl MVPs (Brady and Joe Montana). As he chases Brady for GOAT status, it's actually Brady who provides the blueprint for what Mahomes' midlife crisis could look like. Like Mahomes, Brady tore his ACL in his ninth season. He also went a decade between his third and fourth rings as he competed with the likes of Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Joe Flacco and Philip Rivers in the AFC. Mahomes also has plenty of talent to compete with in the AFC who are champing at the bit after he's been ring blocking for years.

You can definitely make a case the Chiefs' dynasty is over (at least version 1.0) as players decline and bills come due. Kansas City needed to trade Tyreek Hill a few years ago. They moved Joe Thuney last year. This offseason we saw most of their secondary get dismantled headlined by Trent McDuffie's trade to the Rams. Kelce lost a step (or two) and Chris Jones is beginning to decline. You can see the toll all of that has taken as the Chiefs sputtered last year.

They have also been struggling on offense for three years now. We are looking at a 50+-game sample where the Chiefs are below average in scoring. Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers and Brady never had a 30+-game stretch in their careers where their team was below league average in scoring. There doesn't appear to be a solution in sight as Worthy hasn't lived up to the 4.21 40 hype and Rice can't stay on the field.

I was shocked when I found this stat recently. The Chiefs are the only team in the NFL without a 1,000-yard rusher or receiver in a season in the past three years. The lack of playmaking around Mahomes has caught up to them. So has how defenses are playing them. Mahomes has just seven pass touchdowns on deep throws (20+ air yards) since Hill was traded in the 2022 offseason. That's tied for 27th in the league. He had 41 in four seasons prior to that, easily the most in football. 

We're all waiting for 50-TD Mahomes to walk through that door again. But with all of the above in mind, it's probably going to take some time. 

Plus, I buried the lede. Mahomes is coming off last year's knee injury. Although he's healthy for the start of the year, we still don't know how this could impact a quarterback who relies on his legs a lot. He leads the NFL in passing first downs (114) and rushing first downs (60) outside the pocket in the past three seasons. As you can see in the chart below, Allen is the only one who comes close to succeeding with his legs in both facets of the game like Mahomes. 

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TruMedia Sports

This could be enough to be a contributing midlife crisis factor if this injury slows him down a little bit or it takes him time to evolve other parts of his game to make up for losing some explosiveness. 

Case against midlife crisis

  • He's Mahomes (two-time NFL MVP and three-time Super Bowl MVP)
  • Andy Reid is still there and Eric Bieniemy is back
  • Rice is a WR1 when available
  • Kenneth Walker III signing
  • Precedent: Montana's longest title drought in 1980s was three seasons

Let's be real, though. This is Patrick Mahomes! He's one of one. He makes plays that no other QB can make. He performs in the clutch like no other. He made seven straight AFC title games! Shouldn't we give him the benefit of the doubt that he is an alien and will return from injury better than ever? 

He also still has Reid, one of the greatest coaches ever. And maybe the return of Bieniemy busts the Chiefs' offensive slump. The Chiefs averaged over 30 points per game in five seasons with him at OC from 2018-22. Perhaps Kansas City was missing an edge, or lost focus on fundamentals, and Bieniemy can bring the best out.

There's also a chance Rice becomes reliable, right? He has 120 catches, 1,377 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns in his past 17 games when healthy. That's top-five WR in the NFL production. I've given up on Worthy's breakout for now, but the Walker signing could definitely spark the run game. The Chiefs RBs were historically bad last year. They had one 25-yard run all season. Walker had two on one drive in the Super Bowl.

Verdict: Settlement (five-year Super Bowl drought)

I've weighed the evidence and while I don't think we are looking at a 10-year Brady-esque Super Bowl drought for Mahomes, I think it'll be a few years. Montana went three seasons without a ring when he won four in the 1980s. The defense has agreed to a settlement offer. My sentence for Mahomes is five years without a title.

He will still get at least five rings at the end of the day, but it's going to take a few years to get another as the Chiefs' roster reboots, Mahomes adjusts to his knee and he contends with the other great QBs and teams in the conference.

Josh Allen

Case for midlife crisis

  • He missed his best chance last postseason (Mahomes, Jackson, Burrow not in field)
  • The Bills did not do enough to address needs (WR, edge rusher, run defense)
  • Buffalo is cursed and he can't get past Mahomes in the playoffs
  • Precedent: Cam Newton (bruising style will catch up to him at age 30)

Always a bridesmaid, never a bride. Allen has the most playoff wins without a Super Bowl appearance by a QB all time (eight). If it was ever going to happen for him, it would have happened last year when the path to a Super Bowl didn't go through Mahomes and the Chiefs (or Jackson or Burrow for that matter). That's what a Bills pessimist would say. Buffalo had its chance and blew like it always does, in heartbreaking fashion. 

The Bills' offseason moves didn't inspire a ton of confidence, either. They traded for WR DJ Moore, who looked like Chicago's third-best receiver last year behind Rome Odunze and Luther Burden III. They brought in Bradley Chubb, who will probably be another veteran who isn't the closer off the edge that Buffalo desperately needs and couldn't find with Von Miller or Joey Bosa.

Plus, at what point does Allen's bruising style of play catch up to him? How long can he keep up the one-man-band act? He has 100+ rushes in seven straight seasons, tied with Jackson for the longest streak by a quarterback all time. His body type and punishing running style reminds me of Newton, a former MVP with video game numbers who started just 22 games in his 30s. I think Allen is a more polished passer than Newton, and so far he's proven to be more durable (active streak of 137 straight starts including playoffs). But, the NFL is a game of very thin margins. If he loses some of his edge as a rusher will the Bills' Super Bowl window start closing?

Case against midlife crisis

  • He's Josh Allen
  • Joe Brady is his new head coach
  • Moore will have a Stefon Diggs-like impact on offense
  • Precedent: Peyton Manning won first title in ninth season

Much like Mahomes, Allen's defense starts with "this is Josh Allen we are talking about!" He already has the most total touchdowns (301) through nine seasons in NFL history and he's ENTERING his ninth season. He's averaged 40+ touchdowns over the past six years, something no player has done in a six-year span in league history. He may be 30 but he's just different and Father Time doesn't apply to him, at least not yet.

He also reminds me of another superstar quarterback who took a while to win his first ring after putting up video game numbers with nothing to show for it (and living in another GOAT's shadow). Peyton Manning won his first title in his ninth season after watching Brady win his first three rings. Allen has had a similar experience with Mahomes so this is the blueprint for Allen to get over the top. Manning also experienced a heartbreaking playoff loss in his eighth season when Brady wasn't even in the playoff field (sound familiar?). The Colts lost to the Steelers in the 2005 divisional round on a famous play where Ben Roethlisberger prevented what should have been a Colts defensive touchdown. Mike Vanderjagt shanked a potential game-tying field goal. If Manning can finally win one, so can Allen.

The Bills also have to be energized by a new head coach in Brady and a new stadium. Allen has played the best ball of his career in the last few years with Brady as his OC, specifically getting over the turnover bug. Maybe the Bills just need a new voice. The best years of Allen's career also came with Diggs. Moore could be the closest thing Allen has had to Diggs since he left. 

Verdict: Settlement (one-year probation)

History isn't going to repeat itself twice with Allen winning his first title in his ninth season like Peyton Manning. He's also not Newton. But, I didn't like the Bills' offseason moves and I think they'll need to go back to the drawing board and find a true WR1 and sack artist in 2027 before they break through. The prosecution goes easy on the settlement offer and the judge rules for one year of probation. 

Lamar Jackson

Case for midlife crisis

  • Rushing decline has already started
  • Playoff woes (3-5 record and no Super Bowl trip)
  • Injuries (missed at least four games in three of last five years)
  • Precedent: Michael Vick, Russell Wilson, Newton, Randall Cunningham declines between ages 29-33

Jackson relies on speed and explosiveness more than the rest of the group here so his case is particularly troubling. He already missed four games with a hamstring injury last year and it completely zapped his production when he returned (259 total YPG, 11 TD, 2 TO before injury and 207 total YPG, 12 TD, 8 TO after injury). He also missed time in 2021 with an ankle injury and 2022 with a knee sprain. 

Father Time is catching up to him quickly and the leg injuries could continue to mount. When they do, how will the loss of his elite running ability impact his passing game? His passing stats are Hall of Fame worthy by themselves, but some of his effectiveness has to be tied to his running. That was already on the decline before last year's injury. He averaged 80.1 rushing yards per game in his first two seasons from 2018-19, 65.0 from 2020-22, 52.6 from 2023-24 and 26.9 last year. 

That lines up with the steady decline the other best running QBs ever faced. Newton hit a wall at age 29. Cunningham tailed off at age 30. Vick fell off at 32 and Wilson at 33. There's no exact blueprint for when Jackson's game will fall off a cliff, but you can figure it's already starting and could progress rapidly at any point in the next few seasons.

Finally, even if Jackson does defy Father Time, his playoff resume suggests he won't be able to capitalize on a Super Bowl window that stays open. Remember, 2024 was his best chance when Derrick Henry and him were both playing at MVP levels and he turned it over twice in the first half in a playoff loss in Buffalo (marred by Mark Andrews' dropped two-point conversion). 

Case against midlife crisis

  • New head coach (Jesse Minter) and OC (Declan Doyle)
  • Henry is still elite
  • Defense added Trey Hendrickson
  • Precedent: Vick had an elite season at age 30

Forget how all elite rushing QBs age. The only blueprint for Jackson is Vick, and even that isn't perfect. Vick was still effective at age 30 in 2010 when he had 3,000+ pass yards, 600+ rush yards and 30 total TD in just 11 starts for the Eagles. Plus, that was after he had just spent two years in prison. Despite last year's hamstring injury, Jackson could still have a few years of juice left in his legs, and don't forget about his arm. At one point last year he was the all-time leader in passer rating and rushing yards among QBs. His passing game is superior to Vick which should extend his prime.

The Ravens also have a fresh voice who could jump-start a title run. Jesse Minter is the new head coach and Doyle is the new offensive coordinator. Declan Doyle coached under Ben Johnson last year, so perhaps he can breathe some new life into Jackson and the Ravens' offense. They will likely be going under center more in 2026 which could lead to a more explosive ground and play-action game in Baltimore. Henry certainly proved he's still elite with 1,500+ rush yards on over 5 yards per carry last year. 

Finally, the Ravens had zero pass rush last year. Hendrickson is also showing signs of decline at age 31 coming off an injury-plagued year, but a rebound season wouldn't be a shock for him, either.

Verdict: Guilty (midlife crisis with one-year delayed sentence)

The evidence really piles up against Jackson. It's hard to ignore the history of injuries, bad playoff performances and the trend of elite rushing QBs declining. I think Baltimore's Super Bowl window is very close to closing, but I was swayed slightly by Vick's 2010 season. So it's a guilty verdict with the sentence of a full on midlife crisis delayed by one year. I think Jackson could have another MVP-caliber season in him this year, paired with a productive Henry and improved defense. So let's say it's Super Bowl or bust for Jackson in 2026.

Joe Burrow

Case for midlife crisis

  • Last year's cryptic comments
  • Bengals wasting three years of his prime already
  • Burrow's injury history
  • Precedent: Andrew Luck early retirement, Dan Marino never returning to Super Bowl

You don't have to look too hard to find evidence for a Burrow midlife crisis. He's already right in the middle of it. There's the injuries (played 10 or fewer games in three of his six seasons), the wasted prime due to a horrible defense (missed playoffs in the last three years) and comments of frustration. 

There's also precedent here. Andrew Luck's first six seasons look an awful lot like Burrow's. Luck retired after a seventh season when the physical and mental toll became just too much. The physical toll is certainly there for Burrow as he continues to take a beating behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league. The frustration from losing is understandably there too. He's the only quarterback in NFL history with a 100+ passer rating and zero playoff starts in a three-year span (min. 30 starts). 

Another precedent is Dan Marino. Both Burrow and Marino made a Super Bowl in Year 2, lost in the AFC title game in Year 3 and didn't make the playoffs in years 4, 5 or 6. Marino never made it back to the Super Bowl and a dreadful Miami defense was one reason why. Burrow could suffer the same fate. The Bengals haven't drafted a defensive player who eventually made a Pro Bowl for them since 2010 (Geno Atkins and Carlos Dunlap). I don't have much faith in Bengals owner Mike Brown or the smallest scouting department in the NFL (led by Duke Tobin) turning this around. They may have spent some money and draft capital to overhaul the defense but their track record for drafting and developing on that side of the ball is bad.

Case against midlife crisis

There's a lot of precedent for star QBs with playoff droughts during their primes like Burrow as I laid out a few months ago. There's also some nice rebound stories in there. The closest comparison is probably Matt Ryan. He missed three straight postseasons after making it to the 2012 NFC title game. But the presence of Julio Jones and some reinforcements on defense (plus Dan Quinn and Kyle Shanahan on his coaching staff) helped Ryan win an NFL MVP and nearly a Super Bowl in 2016.

Burrow clearly has the talent (top five all time in completion rate, pass yards per game and TD-INT ratio) and firepower (Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Chase Brown) to make another run. The Bengals also went all in by acquiring Dexter Lawrence, Jonathan Allen, Boye Mafe, Bryan Cook and Kyle Dugger to fix what was an all-time bad defense for most of last year. 

Verdict: Exile 

As much as I would like to believe the Bengals have fixed their problems along the offensive line and on defense, their solutions are like putting Band-Aids on bullet holes. Burrow and the Bengals could have a rebound season like Ryan and the 2016 Falcons. Realistically, though, this is a poorly run franchise and the changes they made will not lead to sustainable success. My sentence to Burrow is exile, which might be fitting given last year's cryptic comments. Exile worked out pretty well for Matthew Stafford from Detroit. He went from a QB with a lot of arm talent and zero playoff wins to one who will probably be in the Hall of Fame and has since won an MVP and Super Bowl. If only Burrow could get so lucky. 

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